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Posted on 08/25/2012 7:30:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
When National Journal buries a lede, man, they really bury it. A new poll from Mason-Dixon in Missouri of 625 likely voters shows what everyone already suspected --- that Todd Akin had blown a nine-point lead in Missouri's US Senate race and now trails by five, 49/44, to Claire McCaskill. But what many didn't expect was that the crash-and-burn of Akin would not damage Mitt Romney at all. In the 9th paragraph out of ten, we find out that Romney leads Barack Obama in the critical swing state, and it's not all that close:
McCaskill's lead is a testament to the damage caused by Akin's remarks. She remains less-than-popular, as slightly more voters view her unfavorably (41 percent) than favorably (39 percent). And, despite worries that Akin's remarks could also harm the candidacy of presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor leads President Obama, 50 percent to 43 percent. Obama's favorable-unfavorable split of 38 percent-48 percent is worse than McCaskill's.
It's not even close. Obama carries the metropolitan areas of St. Louis and Kansas City, but only by 50/39 and 50/43, respectively. Romney gets over 60% in every other area of the state, while Obama can only get to 36%. Obama has leads among women and 18-34YOs, but only by 2 and 10 points, respectively. Romney wins a majority in every other age demo, and has a +14 among men at 54/40. Oddly, the newspaper’s table doesn’t break out independents in the presidential race.
The presidential race isn’t likely to change much, either. Romney’s favorables are a modest 44/32 for a +12, with 23% neutral. Obama, the current incumbent, is at -10 with a 38/48, and 14% neutral. That doesn’t suggest that the Akin debacle is damaging Romney at all, nor boosting Obama. While the 23% neutral is both a risk and an opportunity for the less-well-known Romney, the 14% neutral for an incumbent as well known as Obama is mostly a downside risk; few people will suddenly discover they like Obama in the next few weeks who haven’t already come to that conclusion.
As far as the US Senate race, it’s amazing that Akin’s still within five points — a testament to the weakness of McCaskill. On the question of whether Akin should withdraw, a slim plurality of McCaskill voters say he shouldn’t (44/40) … but a majority of Akin’s self-described voters think he should, 50/34. Independents think he should withdraw by thirty-two points, 57/25, but 35% of them will still vote for Akin. His favorables are at -39, 17/56, and yet he’s still getting 44% of the vote. Like I said … amazing.
Obama has 0 Chance in Mo
Is it possible for Missourians to vote for Romney/Ryan AND Clare McCaskill at the same time?
Idiot or not, if he’s only down by 5 its pretty stupid to pull all his support and funding.
Yes. McCaskill’s goal all along was to get the people who are splitting their tickets voting for Jay Nixon (Dem governor who is cruising to re-election) and Mitt Romney to vote for her over Akin. It would have been a tall order a week ago...now it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion.
Are you trying to summon the Freetards? lol...
This seems more likely the scenerio. Rasmussen was probably shilling for the GOPe to pressure Akin to get out.
The vote seems to be splitting the same way in MA, but in reverse.
Scott Brown and Obama leading.
> pretty stupid to pull all his support and funding.
How stupid would it be to be seen as supporting his comments by supporting him? The rest of America is not MO.
Akin is only down 5 to Air Claire. Maybe we get behind the idiot and sit him on the Senate panel for Science. LOL!
“only down by 5”
And a replacement would be only a few points better off.
The PACS will come back if needed.
His biggest obstacles are his age- it’s going to take a lot of personal appearances to turn this around-
and Missouri’s lack of voter id...
Makes sense. He’s already on the House Science Committee.
5 point gain in 24 hours. If he keeps it up he'll be 25 points ahead in a week.
Akin's gaffe will run it's course. Akin will be the next MO Senator if Freepers and other Conservatives get behind him.
Akin could actually win this thing if he can put the stupid comments behind him, and not go on a seemingly endless apology tour like George Allen did. Only being down by 5 isn’t bad for him at this point.
I never thought we would lose Missouri.
Obama’s favorable-unfavorable split of 38 percent-48 percent is worse than McCaskill’s.
Recent poll results from Real Clear Politics
Rasmussen Tracking
Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research
Obama +2
Gallup Tracking
Tie
FOX News
Romney +1
Associated Press/GfK
Obama +1
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl
Obama +4
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun
Obama +1
LA Times/USC
Obama +2
Recent poll results from Real Clear Politics
Rasmussen Tracking
Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research
Obama +2
Gallup Tracking
Tie
FOX News
Romney +1
Associated Press/GfK
Obama +1
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl
Obama +4
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun
Obama +1
LA Times/USC
Obama +2
Might want to read the Rassmussen poll. What his poll said there was a 15% drop in MO GOP support for Romney while the Dem and Indy support for Romney remained unchanged. Rass was telling the GOPe to back off, he was NOT shilling for them in the least
To: SeekAndFind
Idiot or not, if he’s only down by 5 its pretty stupid to pull all his support and funding.
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That’s a no-brainer.
Too bad Priebus and the other geniuses now have their egos invested in crushing (the delightfully uncooperative) Akins, rather than in helping the duly nominated Republican Senate candidate from Missouri (whose ‘criminal’ record extends merely to one stupid sound bite) WIN.
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