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Omens of Doom? - Nate Silver gives 4-to-1 odds against a Romney win
The American Spectator ^ | September 10, 2012 | Robert Stacy McCain

Posted on 09/10/2012 4:34:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

................But why bring Nate Silver into this?

Silver is the poll-analyzing guru of the New York Times, whose reputation as a wizard was developed in crunching baseball statistics before being applied to political campaigns. On Saturday afternoon, Silver published an analysis which asserted that Obama now has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the election, with 317 Electoral College votes and 52 percent of the popular vote. All of which is very interesting -- and very important, if true.

However,....I recall the Sunday in October 2010 when I arrived in New York's 25th Congressional District and was greeted by a Syracuse Post-Standard headline proclaiming that Democrat Rep. Dan Maffei had opened up a 12-point lead over Republican challenger Ann Marie Buerkle with barely two weeks remaining until Election Day. There was a mood of grim determination at the Buerkle campaign events I attended that Sunday and Monday, and I was far from certain that she could pull off an upset. On Election Night, the vote was "too close to call" and it was only after an extended recount that Buerkle was declared the winner -- two days before Thanksgiving -- by a margin of fewer than 600 votes........

Was Buerkle's victory a miraculous comeback? Had she actually erased a 12-point deficit in the span of 16 days? Of course not. The poll by Siena College was simply wrong, based on a faulty sample, and her chances of beating Maffei were as good on Sunday, Oct. 17, as they were on Tuesday, Nov. 2........however, its publication as front-page news in the Syracuse paper posed a real danger to her campaign, one she addressed at a rally with her supporters. "I don't want anyone to let this discourage you," Buerkle said the day after the poll was published. ".........

(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012election; 2012polls; politics; polling; publicperception
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To: xzins

I’m a biblical Christian.

Obama MUST go.


41 posted on 09/10/2012 5:49:16 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Folks, this is all part of liberal mainstream media's agenda, don't fall for it. Virtually every sitting president in history gets a bump from their convention (I think there was only one exception in the last 50 years). I knew Obama would get a bump as did most people who pay attention to politics, however the liberal media is trying spin this as typical bump as something extraordinary and unexpected, and is already calling the election for Obama. This is all part of their plan to create a air of inevitability around Obama and dispirit Romney voters and fundraisers. History has shown up that convention bumps rarely last more than two weeks and to buy into the line that the election is “over” before the first debate is foolish.
42 posted on 09/10/2012 5:49:43 AM PDT by apillar
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To: txrangerette

I was a Rick Perry for President supporter a year before he even announced. I would far rather have him running than Romney. Conservatives shot themselves in the foot when they ganged up on Perry over high school children of illegals.

Romney was far, far worse, but he got a pass, got to sit in the background and watch conservatives shoot each other.


43 posted on 09/10/2012 5:51:44 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: luvbach1

Yes, really. Cunningham is speaking in relative terms, and his is right. The Obama vote would basically shrink down to his base, if EVERYONE saw this movie, was his point. You can be hung up on my choice of words “very few”, but again, like him, I was speaking in relative terms.


44 posted on 09/10/2012 5:51:52 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: jmaroneps37

#28 Great facts!


45 posted on 09/10/2012 5:53:53 AM PDT by Elendur (It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Usagi_yo
Wish I had a spare 250k to try and get that horses ass to lay $1 million against Romney.

I have $ 250,000 that I'd bet on Romney at 4-1 but the money from that fag Silver would have to be put in an off shore escrow account, and the bet would have to be finalized outside of the USA so the little lefty couldn't use USA law to avoid payment.

Nate Silver is all mouth {just ax his closet friends}, his favorite hangout is men's rest room the Trailways bus station.

46 posted on 09/10/2012 5:53:53 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages, start today.)
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To: txrangerette

Like I told parishoner, some people are able to support Romney. They say that the Judahites supported their king whether good or bad.

That’s true all the way up to Jeremiah, at least, and Jeremiah was doing the best for Zedekiah, whether Zedekiah saw it as support or not.

In any case, I understand where you’re coming from, and your reasons, but I can’t lie to people when they ask me about Romney or what I think.

After hearing it, they have to either go with the “lesser of two evils canddiate” idea, or they have to go with the “morally right candidate wherever you find him” idea.


47 posted on 09/10/2012 5:56:55 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Perdogg

He's written pieces for the Huffinton Post, appeared on Comrade News Network, Etc.

He's your typical ultra dweeb schilling for the Left.

48 posted on 09/10/2012 5:59:11 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: SteveAustin
Exactly, this is all about vote suppression.
49 posted on 09/10/2012 5:59:45 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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I recently watched a documentary; I think it was about the Battle of the Bulge. In the film, it was reported by a surviving vet that his commanding officer threatened to disassociate an individual that was demoralizing the remaining, war-torn troops. The vet clearly communicated the importance of focusing on victory while emphasizing the impact and cost of despair and defeatism.

I’m not in any way suggesting any form of disassociation.

Any FReeper that insists on foretelling an Obama victory should give some consideration to the negative effect one’s subconscious wish has on morale.

Please reconsider the complaining.


50 posted on 09/10/2012 6:03:49 AM PDT by Gene Eric (Demoralization is a weapon of the enemy. Don't get it, don't spread it!)
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To: xzins; Cincinatus' Wife

Yes, but Romney won.

So, it’s Romney or Obama.

Recriminations will not spare this country from Obama.

Only votes, fairly counted, will.

Rick Perry will support Romney, and the two men are very, very different and do not care for each other.

Also Bachmann, Santorum etc are all on board not because they want to be but because they believe four more years of Obama and Reid and we are done.

Guaranteed. No chance.

Some poster wrote this...”vote Romney because at least my kids have a chance at a country, whereas with Obama they have none”.

Obama operates outside of our system. And already Moochelle is salivating at the great opportunity to change what you can buy at your local grocery store. What I have always seen in Obama is Hugo Chavez and Venezuela. Once Chavez, operating outside the system and through insidious means, got control there, the people who wanted a free Venezuela were done.

No chance.


51 posted on 09/10/2012 6:04:44 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: xzins

>> but I cant lie to people when they ask me about Romney or what I think.

You can tell them Life and Liberty have better odds with a Republican White House.


52 posted on 09/10/2012 6:05:45 AM PDT by Gene Eric (Demoralization is a weapon of the enemy. Don't get it, don't spread it!)
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To: Gene Eric

Can you cite the FReeper on this thread that has foretold an Obama victory?

I haven’t read every single comment.

But haven’t noticed one.


53 posted on 09/10/2012 6:08:44 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Hyper-rabid fag leftie Nate Silver is a “pole analyzer” as well as a “poll analyzer.”


54 posted on 09/10/2012 6:14:12 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Usagi_yo

So, Obama has come down from 57 to 53 as his post-convention anti-bounce on Intrade. Sweet!


55 posted on 09/10/2012 6:15:46 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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Wow! A New York Jewish guy liked by the NY Times thinks Obama will win. Is that news?


56 posted on 09/10/2012 6:19:20 AM PDT by Godwin1
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To: txrangerette

>> Can you cite

What gave you the impression there’s a FReeper to cite? Or are you attempting to make a point?


57 posted on 09/10/2012 6:21:31 AM PDT by Gene Eric (Demoralization is a weapon of the enemy. Don't get it, don't spread it!)
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To: xzins

There ISN’T a “morally right” candidate.

“All have sinned and fallen short of the glory of God”.

Speaking theologically, of course.

I look at who is determined to destroy my country vs. who isn’t.

Others who refuse to draw that distinction and have fallen into the weeds and are thrashing around on other issues, lose me.

I so don’t prefer Romney, for several reasons, that I won’t vote for him unless my country hangs in the balance, but for me, it doesn’t, because I live in TX and they will vote Obama out no matter what I do.

If I believed my vote would matter as in a critical swing state, then I would vote against Obama by voting for Mitt.

I actually believe McCain is not presidential material, but voted for him instead of Obama, and was pleased to vote for Palin.

This is not a world in which we have good choices in politics.

I learned that a long time ago.

Lyndon Johnson vs Goldwater? For example. Though very young, I preferred Goldwater because I could not STAND LBJ, nor could my family. Goldwater was flawed, though. I could cite you examples but won’t bother.

Nixon vs. Kennedy? Again, two very flawed individuals.


58 posted on 09/10/2012 6:22:47 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: txrangerette; Gene Eric

As I said, I understand why you folks are deciding what you’re deciding.

However, you have the benefit of the facts in order to make a decision that’s suitable for you.

So, I tell folks the facts and then let them make their decisions. As you saw yesterday, I even fairly presented the “lesser of two evils” argument.

This particular biblical Christian I was speaking to — at least initially — said that Romney is someone he couldn’t support. Tim is a traveling construction worker, times are hard for his industry, and he blames limited building opportunities on Obama. He can’t stand Obama.

It is possible to have 2 enemies and to fight a two front war. My enemy of My enemy is still my enemy.


59 posted on 09/10/2012 6:23:58 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins
He said that it was a repeat of McCain and that it would NOT work, and that if Romney doesn’t attack, because there are so many points at which to attack, then it will not go well.

The GOPe. Doing the same thing again and again expecting different results.

The second election in a row where real conservatives have been forced to justify their vote by supporting the Vice Presidential candidate instead of the Presidential candidate and the GOPe deliberately tanking the race.

60 posted on 09/10/2012 6:24:55 AM PDT by OldMissileer
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