Mitt Romney would lead eight in unskewed data from newest CNN/ORC poll

examiner.com ^ | 9-10-2012 | Dean Chambers

[reprobate]

The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.

This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack...

[SaraJohnson]

Obammy’s threatening unfavorable pollsters. He paid off MSNBC with “stimulus.” NBC and the other DNC alphabets have a long reach in pollster purchase land. The GOP does not play hardball. The Dems do.

[ROTB]

but nothing to freak out about yet.

***

Correction, no reason to freak out, ever.

[cpdiii]

Ignore the polls and work to defeat 0bama as if that jug eared freak was 10 percent ahead, and Romney & Ryan were 15 percent behind. The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day, and the 0bamunist Ministry of Information (aka the lamestream media) is going to toe the mark and walk the line per Axelrod & Company right up to Election Night, believe that. Those media whores have been bought and paid for by the White House.

I beg to differ my good friend. Whores deliver a service for a price that is agreed on in advance by both parties that engage in the transaction of their own free will. Considering the repeat business it must be an agreeable transaction for both. Capitalism works!

Relative to the media they do it for free. Rumor has it that Obama buys the knee pads so it is not a negative cash flow for the media.

[Biggirl]

Amen to that.

[ebshumidors]

That’s right, folks. Get your butt up and away from the computer and knock on doors and we’ll win in a landslide. Or just post and moan.

[grey_whiskers]

Rasmussen has obama at 50, Romney at 45. CNN may be off, but probably not by a lot. It appears obama did get some bump after the DNC. Why? probably because we have a lot of morons in this country.

Learn to *think*.

National polls are *meaningless* unless they show a true wave election effect.

Why? Go back to the "electoral college is outdated, we need a national popular vote" lie spread by the Marxists in the Dem party.

In blue strongholds such as Illinois, New York, and California, the large number of urban centers (ghettos) means that Obama wins by a very large margin...in votes earned. But this does not mean anything for the number of electoral votes: as Floriduh 2000 shows us, if you win by 400 votes or 4,000,000 votes, you get the same number of EVs from a state.

But -- the flip side of this is -- if you have a large number of people supporting you, but most of them are in a few places -- that your support is actually *weaker* outside of the strongholds, since there are only so many supporters to go around.

So a national poll (especially one which overweights Democrats) may well make Obama look stronger than he is: but since a lot of his support is from places which are heavily Donkey already, it does NOT mean (but the pollster *does* intend for you to assume it means) that his support is at that level in all states, red, blue, and swing.

So to your point: if Obama's bump is in heavily blue areas (and I have seen reports that suggest it is) then the bump in the polls for him post-DNC convention is only good for breeding Donk complacency, or for propaganda.

To Cheers!

[who knows what evil?]

Many people that identify themselves as ‘independents’ are actually ‘disenfranchised’ conservatives who have left the left-leaning GOP...

[who knows what evil?]

It's not because a lead in the polls can energize voting, it is because (I suspect) that their CHEATING plans are so monstrous in scope and magnitude, that a bogus win will be easier to sell if the polls showed a (bogus, of course) lead.

You are absolutely right...keep in mind some of our votes are being tallied by a foreign entity...

[SamAdams76]

Campaigns spend millions of dollars for private (internal) polls. These polls are far more accurate as the candidates need to know where they truly stand, with no BS, and where they need to focus their resources.

If you want to know the state of a presidential campaign, look to where the campaign is spending their money and time. If Romney/Ryan spend a lot of time in Ohio, North Carolina and Florida over the next few weeks, that's a bad sign. If they are in Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and New Hampshire, that's a good sign. If they are in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado and New Jersey, that's a fantastic sign.

[JPG]

Obama is spending an inordinate amount of time in IA. Almost all of his rally time is spent in front of college students. Ask yourself why.

[sergeantdave]

“If you want to know the state of a presidential campaign, look to where the campaign is spending their money and time.”

That is a good indicator. I read that Buckwheat is making big ad buys in the state of Washington. That’s not a good sign for the rats.

[Hemingway's Ghost]

Campaigns spend millions of dollars for private (internal) polls. These polls are far more accurate as the candidates need to know where they truly stand, with no BS, and where they need to focus their resources.

Well said.

[Tonytitan]

Keep in mind it’s registered voters, not likely voters.

Would someone clarify the distinction, please. Whenever I see/hear that missive, I always wonder if someone is trying to say that a registered voter is an unlikely voter until they declare themselves a likely voter. It seems like someone is saying that those in the registered category won't vote.

[tobyhill]

They weighted the Rats by over 10%. Based on the 2010 elections, Republicans have surpassed the Rats in party affiliation.
Polling is not a science, it's a simple technique. The actual split is 33% R, 32% D, 33% I and 2% Other. 100% Republicans will vote Republican and 100% Rats will vote for Rats. The Ind. will split for Romney 55% to 44%. Romney will win in a landslide and well over 300 EVs.

[tobyhill]

Rasmussen is showing the poll this way because he doesn't want the rest of the Lame Stream Media claiming he's a Republican shill when in fact they are Obama ass kissers.