Who would dare?
Posted on 09/13/2012 6:05:13 PM PDT by Publius804
The post-Labor Day, post-conventions polls show President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the three key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia, which ratchets up pressure on Romney to turn things around in the debates in October.
Obama is ahead of Romney by five points among likely voters, 49 percent to 44 percent, in both Florida and Virginia, and in Ohio, he has a seven-point lead, 50 percent to 43 percent, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
“You’d rather be in Obama’s shoes than Romney’s in these three critical states,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, NBC News reported, adding that the leads are not “insurmountable.”
Things could change when the candidates face off at the first presidential debate on Oct. 3 in Denver.
Obama won the three states in 2008 and George W. Bush won them in 2004, according to NBC. Romney likely needs to capture at least two of the three battleground states to win the White House but Obama can reach 270 electoral votes by winning just one or two of these battlegrounds as long as he wins the other states considered to be in the Democrat column.
Miringoff noted that most voters in these battleground states have already made up their minds.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
by five points among likely voters, 49 percent to 44 percent, in both Florida ...
LOL! here in Florida? No.
Yo, Publius!: If you’re gonna post a poll then you should feel obligated to not only post links to the actual polls and the accompanying internals but try to post an article that actually has links to the poll(s)! Crap post from the start.
I’m weeding through the pdfs to look at the internals but at least in Florida I’ve seen a five point level of Dems polled while 30% are supposedly Indies. That makes it even at worst and plus Romney by 3 or 4 at best.
Throw out Dems and GOP, just look at the sum of all independent likely voters, and we will have the best measure of the state of the electorate.
I’ve mentioned this before, but I live in blue collar central that was strongly for Obama four years ago, and the tone has changed dramatically, with only the fringe kooks in his corner. I don’t buy these polls at all.
$4.56 here in CT for the same.
Ding ding! We have a winner. Not only to play the "outraged card" but also to attempt to cripple Romney from the get-go.
Who would dare?
Had to do some looking. This poll over sampled Democrats by about +10%, under sample Republicans by -2%, and under sampled Independent by - %8 using Rasmussen’s party ID trends reported on Sept 1st.
NBC/WSJ/Marist Florida 2012 Presidential Poll
“Survey of 1,352 registered voters, including 980 likely voters, was conducted September 9-11, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 3.1 percentage points among likely voters. Party registration (among registered voters): 42% (43%) Democrat; 36% (35%) Republican; 22% (21%) Independent. Party registration (among likely voters): 41% Democrat; 38% Republican; 20% Independent. Ideology (among registered voters): 34% (34%) Moderate; 30% (29%) Conservative; 18% (19%) Liberal; 12% (12%) Very conservative; 6% (6%) Very liberal. Ideology (among likely voters): 33% Moderate; 31% Conservative; 18% Liberal; 13% Very conservative; 5% Very liberal.”
http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/09/poll-watch-nbc-newswall-street.html
Because of his harsh words for the terrorists? /s
Don’t these idiots know that we look at the internals now because they have lost all credibility? Apparently not.
“Wonderful. We are going to have 4+ more years of this stumble bumb.”
Regrettably, I sense you’re correct, regardless of the other remarks in this thread that ignore the message while attacking the messenger.
Ohio and Virginia are bellwethers, and Romney is faring poorly in both of them.
I sense the core of the problem isn’t so much Romney per se, but the more troubling reality that like other “battleground” states, both OH and VA are on the verge of “tipping” to the blue side, as Colorado has recently done.
If that’s the case, it’s going to be tough for the Republicans to win the presidency again without them.
Remember back here on FR two years ago?
“The dog catcher could beat Obama.”
“The dog could beat Obama.”
“A ham sandwich could beat Obama.”
What the heck happened?
“Obama has a double-digit lead over Romney as to who would better handle foreign policy.”
Now I know this poll was a joke.
LOL! Dims over sampled by 18, they must be trying to fool themselves. We will by a landslide.
This is the poll I answered Tuesday and I`m disappointed.
Romney has a lot of work ahead of him these last few weeks. We still have a shot at this if we put aside our misgivings about Romney and turn out en masse on election day. There`s no room for apathy or stay-at-home disgruntlement...not this time.
Come Nov 6, this is it. More has never been at stake for the heart and soul of America. If 0bama is somehow defeated, America lives to fight another day. If not, it`s game..set..match...and we`re done as a country.
Pray for a miracle ...pray for some kind of implosion by Obama...pray for Romney to have three flawless debates.. and pray for turnout like we`ve never seen ever before.
Where did you see the sampling demographics?
I couldn’t find it in the article, maybe I overlooked it.
Terrific stuff. Many thanks.
Heh, yeah, right. Partisan media shills ping. Thanks Publius804.
Nope. The professional polls such as Rassmussen show Romney tied or ahead in both.
Polls are some of the easiest statistical measurements to manipulate. The problem here is too many people want to treat all polls as equal. They aren't. There are serious polls and junk polls. NBC/Marxist is an example of a junk poll.
2008 Presidential Election
The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection
polls (as reported on pollster.com)
.
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23
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