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Posted on 09/18/2012 8:35:00 AM PDT by LS
OR poll---no details on "likely/registered" I could find---maybe you can.
Obama up 50-41. No breakdown on D/R splits but this has to be horrible news for ZEro.
Folks, I'll say this again: if he is barely polling 50% in places like CT and OR, he's toast.
Folks, it’s Oregon.
Look, let’s craft a metaphor.
Pretend the US is a living body, made of tissue like a human being.
Let’s say that California, Oregon, and Washington are the fingers of it’s left hand.
The West Coast is gangrenous at this point, and it will fall off, perhaps literally if you believe the more strident plate tectonic scientists.
WA is irretrievably blue. We haven’t had our ‘Detroit’ moment yet, but we are closer than we have been. First Boeing moved its headquarters, then it moved a new 787 line. Now SPEEA is striking (engineers and technical people). Moving principal engineering isn’t as hard as moving an assembly line, and so I see SPEEA being stupid enough to strike.
When they do, and they probably will, Boeing will wait for R’s to win the WH and Congress, and then they will convert WA state into a government contract facility.
CA is already toast. Companies are leaving there (with the exception of Silicon Valley and SF) in droves. No way they keep up with their own deficit. Public employee pensions are like something you see in Saudi Arabia - sewer workers making $160,000 for life after retiring at 50 through spiking in the last three years.
No Republican will ever, ever take a West Coast state again - ever. The idea behind this class warfare bit was to create an entitled class and pit them against the productive class. They won in the West. It’s that simple.
It will take Greek-style default to change it, and Boeing leaving WA state.
Patty Murray is what statesmanship looks like in 2012. The West is toast.
A little advertizing might help. Unfortunately, we're seeing no Republican ads here. Except for a few liberal bastions on Portland, Oregon is very pro-firearms. Even Defazio has to pretend to be pro-gun to get re-elected.
well....we are just heading out into our Precincts in the next few weeks so...this COULD change.....yeah, Oregon is a liberal bastion....at least in Portland and Eugene....elsewhere...not so much.....we’ll see if the idiots wake up this year...
Oregon ping
However, if you look at 2008, Obama was at 56.7, McCain at 40!! So Romney is outperforming McCain by one and Obama is off by almost 7 points. That's an 8-point swing and we're still two months out.
Unfortunately I have to agree with RinseaofDs and give up hope. I grew up in OR4—Coos County—and there are enough die-hard yellow-dog Ds of Arkansas/West Virginia extraction who will never vote R because Lincoln was a Republican that lip service on conservative issues suffices. DeFazio is an Italian Catholic (CINO) from NJ who happened to be Jim Weaver’s chief of staff—the Catholic population in the district is under 10% and the Italian population and the percentage of people who do not hate NJ (among those who have an opinion) is even smaller.
Eventually the Arkansas/West Virginia wing will die, but the perennial strength of the liberal wing of the Republican party in Oregon—as in the NE the party has been true to its original roots to an extent—ticked of enough conservative Dems to ensure that by the time they have ceased the Californication of the state will be complete.
I think the best comparisons (when looking at State polls) are to 2004, when the election was quite close.
I agree that polls and votes are two different things, but using the previous results to calibrate the polls for a particular State can be instructive. A better thing would be a poll in that State from 2004.
Anyway, your comparison to 2008 election results has the same issue.
I think the best comparisons (when looking at State polls) are to 2004, when the election was quite close.
I agree that polls and votes are two different things, but using the previous results to calibrate the polls for a particular State can be instructive. A better thing would be a poll in that State from 2004.
Anyway, your comparison to 2008 election results has the same issue.
That breakdown was for the poll.
The rumor is it is a 4 pt race and some polls show it a toss up. He may lose Oregon, only one on the Left coast.
Pray for America
Love to believe it, but source for the rumor?
Fox news poll and Allen Alley.
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