Elections 2012: Where Have the Conservatives & Evangelicals Gone?

The Right Sphere ^ | 09/18/2012 | Tom Dougherty

[SeekAndFind]

In an article Monday, Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney, I cited some data gleaned from multiple polls conducted within the last week that demonstrated waning support for Governor Romney from conservatives and evangelicals.

While the article was factual (see notes below about how I analyze polls) and was intended to educate readers who are Romney supporters of an alarming trend, it apparently raised a bit of a ruckus. Many readers observed the numbers were inaccurate, out of context, invalid because they failed to account for numerous factors like past voting analyses, and several even called me a Democratic shill.

Nothing could be further from the truth on any of those accounts. I am an ardent supporter of Governor Romney but I am also a political analyst and commentator, and a realist. In politicking the worst thing you can do is fail to address a challenge head-on and this is a challenge for the Romney campaign.

Not that I consider either of these to be authoritative but two articles appeared yesterday referencing a possible change in strategy within the Romney campaign and both, at varying levels, speak to the problem I espoused Monday. Politico published Inside the campaign: How Mitt Romney stumbled and BuzzFeed released Romney’s New Strategy Turns Right. I’ll make no comment on either here since it is up to the campaign to decide their course of action.

Though today I’m going to delve a bit deeper into the discourse in Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney because further research clearly shows that conservatives and evangelicals are not supporting Romney at levels they supported his two immediate predecessors, John McCain and George W. Bush.

Looking at the same numbers from current polling when compared to McCain in 2008 and Bush in 2004, it’s no longer a question, it is fact that conservatives and evangelicals are not turning out for Romney.

As before, this chart includes the swing states of Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.

The Romney 2012 numbers are obtained from a group of polls of likely voters conducted by pollsters with both conservative and liberal biases, and then demographically adjusted to remove/reduce party bias. The McCain 2008 and Bush 2004 numbers are derived from averaging the results of a collection of exit polls performed in 2004 and 2008 of actual voters. Here again the pollsters represent a range of conservative to liberal biases, and I do not accept at face value any exit poll but they were all remarkably close and are relevant to looking at the very apparent trends.

Notwithstanding the linear drop in support from self-described moderates, which has occurred at virtually every level of campaigning – national, state and local, and focusing on the Conservatives and Evangelicals, we see:

Romney currently has just 0.5% more support from Conservatives than McCain received in 2008
Romney currently has 7.1% less support from Conservatives than Bush received in 2004
Romney currently has 10.4% less support from Evangelicals than McCain received in 2008
Romney currently has 25.0% less support from Evangelicals than Bush received in 2004

Even conceding a couple points since the margin of error is greater for exit polling than phone polling of likely voters the trends do not lie or obfuscate the reality that Governor Romney is not getting the support he should from conservatives and evangelicals. Furthermore, the difference in support is so great that an increase of half of the current deficiencies would have Romney holding a comfortable lead over Obama.

I will not draw a conclusion about why and will leave that to individual readers but what is clear is it is not the undecideds or persuadables that could cost Romney the election, it’s conservatives and evangelicals.

AUTHOR’S NOTE: Analyzing polling numbers is always subject to individual poll bias, registered vs. likely voters, polling methodologies such as online, robo-calls to landlines, mobile survey apps to cellphones and a plethora of other factors.

Before I use any poll in an analysis I adjust the poll using algorithms of my own that compensate for these factors and establish a baseline so every poll is considered in the same context, or as close as is reasonably possible. Also I rarely quote individual polls rather groups of polls as a weighted average.

Finally, it is true the ultimate poll occurs on Election Day but there is not a campaign in the country that does not rely on polling, both internal and public, to gauge where they are at a given time and what they should do to address the challenges and shortcomings the results dictate. That is professional politicking.

[longtermmemmory]

next week “why people with brown eyes are not voting for Romney”.

to be followed by, “Romeny losing support of people with blue eyes.”

to be followed by, “Romney has cooties”

whatever happed to the viking kittens?

[Kolath]

This is better

“Zo” in “Under my Buss”

Classic!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_JUQSje_xA

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Where Have the Conservatives & Evangelicals Gone?

"Where, oh where has my lovely, wonderful Tina gone," a perplexed Ike Turner wondered.

[TexasGunLover]

The main problem is, when you look at their history, you can’t tell the difference between Hussein and Romney... this is the same scenario that happened with McCain.

True conservatives simply aren’t going to “hold their nose” and vote for a liberal, even if that helps Hussein.

[Emperor Palpatine]

That’s about the size of it.

[libdestroyer]

"Call them Pharissees. Jesus called the Pharissees “white washed tombs full of dead mens bones”, “hypocrites” and also hell bound. Food for thought."

---

That is totally out of context...
How about this one?:

¹Let every soul be subject to the governing authorities. For there is no authority except from God, and the authorities that exist are appointed by God. ² Therefore whoever resists the authority resists the ordinance of God, and those who resist will bring judgment on themselves. ³ For rulers are not a terror to good works, but to evil. Do you want to be unafraid of the authority? Do what is good, and you will have praise from the same. ⁴ For he is God’s minister to you for good. But if you do evil, be afraid; for he does not bear the sword in vain; for he is God’s minister, an avenger to execute wrath on him who practices evil. ⁵ Therefore you must be subject, not only because of wrath but also for conscience’ sake. ⁶ For because of this you also pay taxes, for they are God’s ministers attending continually to this very thing. ⁷ Render therefore to all their due: taxes to whom taxes are due, customs to whom customs, fear to whom fear, honor to whom honor.

~Romans 13:1-7

Kinda convicting isn't it?
This is why I feel comfortable voting for whomever I please. Mitt Romney is NOT my candidate.

[donna]

Ronald Reagan Quote
“We should measure welfare’s success by how many people leave welfare, not by how many are added.”

[Emperor Palpatine]

You mean Obama.

A vote for anyone but Romney is tantamount to a vote for Zero.

The math and the numbers don’t lie, so spare me your sanctimony.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Why doesn't Romney hold any responsibility in this?

In the eyes of his more... ummmmmmmmmm... excitable adherents and apologists hereabouts, Mittens is much like a cow wandering placidly through the streets of downtown Cairo: immune to any/all criticism and/or impediment by divine principle, if not an object of abject veneration outright.

The cow is holy. The cow is perfect. If the cow, for whatever reason(s) -- by whatever unguessable confluence of events, in the course of its dull, plodding amblings -- doesn't end up wherever the hell it was it wanted to go to in the first place: that's your fault, buddy, not the cow's.

Never, ever, EVER the sacred, wondrous cow's. ;)

[Emperor Palpatine]

Your point is that you’re complicit in the destruction of our country and surrender to Sharia.

[central_va]

The Libertarians that really run the Republican Party are ashamed of conservatives.

[Emperor Palpatine]

Ike always called her Anna Mae.

[FlipWilson]

The irony is that the leaked video of Romney has done more to appeal to conservatives than anything this guy has said on the stump.

[itsahoot]

They were told they weren't wanted or needed by the GOP, so we went elsewhere.

Bingo!

We will however be roundly criticized for the failure of yet another inside the beltway mushy RINO getting whacked again. Most of us will in the end vote for the Republican candidate, but d@mned if we will sing his praises.

Where I live it won't matter, but any states that are marginal we would be stupid to write in a protest vote. Now is the time to voice our discontent because it will be the only opportunity we have to influence the next administration.

[Emperor Palpatine]

Romney isn’t a Muslim, a traitor, a wannabe dictator, and he really loves America.

He doesn’t eat dogs, either.

[itsahoot]

some who are so self righteous and sanctimonious that they refuse to support any one who's not as ideologically pure as themselves.

This is why you moron.

[DarthVader]

Fine and Obama is not mine, nor is Obama appointed by God. He is also constitutionally illegitmate thus nulling and voiding any authority he has. Romans 13:1-7 was also written at a time when oriental despostism was the rule of the time. The concept of a free society, the rule of law and democratic republic conceived by Christians inspired by God came several hundred years later which was even beyond St. Paul’s knowledge and experience.

Sic Semper Tyrannis, baby!(Resistance to Tyrants is obedient to God) If you have a reasonable alternative to this marxist your stubborness makes you a blasted fool and an enabler of evil.

[DarthVader]

Fine and Obama is not mine, nor is Obama appointed by God. He is also constitutionally illegitmate thus nulling and voiding any authority he has. Romans 13:1-7 was also written at a time when oriental despostism was the rule of the time. The concept of a free society, the rule of law and democratic republic conceived by Christians inspired by God came several hundred years later which was even beyond St. Paul’s knowledge and experience.

Sic Semper Tyrannis, baby!(Resistance to Tyrants is obedience to God) If you have a reasonable alternative to this marxist your stubborness makes you a blasted fool and an enabler of evil.

[Colonel_Flagg]

We have a REPRESENTATIVE republic. If you continue to vote for someone because “he’s not as bad as the other guy” you will never be truly represented.

I'm going to borrow this, if you don't mind. Eloquently stated.

[Emperor Palpatine]

You tell him, Padowan......