Elections 2012: Where Have the Conservatives & Evangelicals Gone?

The Right Sphere ^ | 09/18/2012 | Tom Dougherty

[SeekAndFind]

In an article Monday, Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney, I cited some data gleaned from multiple polls conducted within the last week that demonstrated waning support for Governor Romney from conservatives and evangelicals.

While the article was factual (see notes below about how I analyze polls) and was intended to educate readers who are Romney supporters of an alarming trend, it apparently raised a bit of a ruckus. Many readers observed the numbers were inaccurate, out of context, invalid because they failed to account for numerous factors like past voting analyses, and several even called me a Democratic shill.

Nothing could be further from the truth on any of those accounts. I am an ardent supporter of Governor Romney but I am also a political analyst and commentator, and a realist. In politicking the worst thing you can do is fail to address a challenge head-on and this is a challenge for the Romney campaign.

Not that I consider either of these to be authoritative but two articles appeared yesterday referencing a possible change in strategy within the Romney campaign and both, at varying levels, speak to the problem I espoused Monday. Politico published Inside the campaign: How Mitt Romney stumbled and BuzzFeed released Romney’s New Strategy Turns Right. I’ll make no comment on either here since it is up to the campaign to decide their course of action.

Though today I’m going to delve a bit deeper into the discourse in Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney because further research clearly shows that conservatives and evangelicals are not supporting Romney at levels they supported his two immediate predecessors, John McCain and George W. Bush.

Looking at the same numbers from current polling when compared to McCain in 2008 and Bush in 2004, it’s no longer a question, it is fact that conservatives and evangelicals are not turning out for Romney.

As before, this chart includes the swing states of Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.

The Romney 2012 numbers are obtained from a group of polls of likely voters conducted by pollsters with both conservative and liberal biases, and then demographically adjusted to remove/reduce party bias. The McCain 2008 and Bush 2004 numbers are derived from averaging the results of a collection of exit polls performed in 2004 and 2008 of actual voters. Here again the pollsters represent a range of conservative to liberal biases, and I do not accept at face value any exit poll but they were all remarkably close and are relevant to looking at the very apparent trends.

Notwithstanding the linear drop in support from self-described moderates, which has occurred at virtually every level of campaigning – national, state and local, and focusing on the Conservatives and Evangelicals, we see:

Romney currently has just 0.5% more support from Conservatives than McCain received in 2008
Romney currently has 7.1% less support from Conservatives than Bush received in 2004
Romney currently has 10.4% less support from Evangelicals than McCain received in 2008
Romney currently has 25.0% less support from Evangelicals than Bush received in 2004

Even conceding a couple points since the margin of error is greater for exit polling than phone polling of likely voters the trends do not lie or obfuscate the reality that Governor Romney is not getting the support he should from conservatives and evangelicals. Furthermore, the difference in support is so great that an increase of half of the current deficiencies would have Romney holding a comfortable lead over Obama.

I will not draw a conclusion about why and will leave that to individual readers but what is clear is it is not the undecideds or persuadables that could cost Romney the election, it’s conservatives and evangelicals.

AUTHOR’S NOTE: Analyzing polling numbers is always subject to individual poll bias, registered vs. likely voters, polling methodologies such as online, robo-calls to landlines, mobile survey apps to cellphones and a plethora of other factors.

Before I use any poll in an analysis I adjust the poll using algorithms of my own that compensate for these factors and establish a baseline so every poll is considered in the same context, or as close as is reasonably possible. Also I rarely quote individual polls rather groups of polls as a weighted average.

Finally, it is true the ultimate poll occurs on Election Day but there is not a campaign in the country that does not rely on polling, both internal and public, to gauge where they are at a given time and what they should do to address the challenges and shortcomings the results dictate. That is professional politicking.

[JRandomFreeper]

Where Have the Conservatives & Evangelicals Gone?

They were told they weren't wanted or needed by the GOP, so we went elsewhere.

/johnny

[SeekAndFind]

RE: so we went elsewhere.

And let Obama cruise... yes, that’s very smart.

[God luvs America]

i have a feeling based on the videos of the past 24hrs many of them will be returning...

[GingisK]

Anyone who votes according to the polls is an abject idiot, especially when the polls are instruments of propaganda.

[Responsibility2nd]

Elections 2012: Where Have the Conservatives & Evangelicals Gone?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here's a clue....

(Thanks Republican Party!) (/s)

[Buckeye McFrog]

Just hanging out quietly biding our time until Election Day.

We really don’t need any of those Obama Brownshirts coming around to “get in our faces”.

[doc11355]

They’re letting “perfect be the enemy of good”

Since Romney doesn’t meet their exhalted standards for conservatism, they’ll stay at home rather than violate their “principles”, in essence passive aggressively voting for much worse: Obama.

[nickcarraway]

Doesn’t Romney have any responsibility to win this election, or it’s everybody else’s fault. As a candidate, Romney is in the 47% who expects candidate welfare. And you agree, he doesn’t have any responsibility to work for his own victory. That’s an interesting theory- but let’s see how it works. Besides, it seems like Romney would like to lose pure, than win by evil conservatives voting for him. How will he ever get rid of conservative cooties if they vote for him?

[JRandomFreeper]

If the GOP wants my vote, they need to run a candidate that has a proven track record (ignore what they say, watch what they do) of being: Pro-life, pro gun, against socialized medicine, and actually reducing the size of government.

That's my exalted standards.

/johnny

[nickcarraway]

Isn’t Romney saying the same thing? He doesn’t want to be tainted by vile, uneducated conservatives? He doesn’t want to reach across the aisle and sully himself.

[GraceG]

They are too busy buying canned food and stockpilling brass and lead....

[Responsibility2nd]

That is an excellent graph. And it underscores the fact that Evangelicals won the election for Bush in 2000 and 2004. No other demographic group was anywhere near instrumental in defeating Gore and Kerry as Christians.

What happened in 2008? What is happening now? Easy: Evangelicals were kicked to the curb. Us values voters were and are ignored.

But just don’t blames us when Obama is re-elected. Blame the GOP-e.

[pgkdan]

While most conservatives and Evcangelical Christians are actually supporting Romney there are some who are so self righteous and sanctimonious that they refuse to support any one who's not as ideologically pure as themselves.

They're not convinced that Romney's sufficiently pro-life so they withold their support in order that the most radically pro abortion president ever gets re-elected.

Theyre not convinced that Romney is sufficiently conservative so they'll sit by and allow the re-election of the most radically liberal and anti-American President ever.

They're upset that Romney's a Mormon and not a Christian so they'll sit by and allow the re-election of a muslim who's aligned and allied with radical muslims who openly call for the destruction of this country.

[taxcontrol]

Well said.

[Tennessee Nana]

waning support for Governor Romney from conservatives and evangelicals.
_________________________________________

conservatives and Christians dont support him much either...

[PieterCasparzen]

The GOP-e needs to remember the standard game plan of needing to attract voters on the fence has a second key element: getting the core of the base to come out and vote.

Otherwise they can find themselves gaining, for example, 0.5% in the middle, but losing 0.5% in turnout from the right.

The home runs are hit when the party preaches enough that people in the middle actually experience a change of heart.

[arthurus]

Be so snide as you like. the reality is that when “your” candidate disowns you, your enthusiasm wanes at the very least. Those shunned voters will not feel sufficient excitement to get them to the polls in the numbers that Romney needs. It seems stupid for the candidate to give the finger to his base support but if Romney is from he standard Republican mold then he is not, in fact, running for the Presidency. He reached the perceived Republican Elite pinnacle when he won the nomination. Further campaigning is just sufficient to keep from ruining his reputation, even in the press and among his “peers,” by taking an obvious dive. He is being more subtle. It’s finesse.

[nickcarraway]

Boy, J, you do have unrealistic standards! You are asking for the moon. I was just thinking: 1: a candidate who can pretend he doesn't hate conservatives, 2: a candidate who will throw us a bone on one tiny issue that was entirely popular in 2010- namely socialized healthcare.

If Romney would come out and say Romneycare was a mistake would be enough. But he doesn't even care enough to lie and say Romneycare is a mistake. He won't even put any skin in the game. If he can even muster enough to lie on one thing and pretend he's with us. Wow.

[JRandomFreeper]

It's the GOP's election to lose. No-one owes them a vote.

/johnny