Posted on 09/20/2012 9:49:38 AM PDT by profit_guy
Four recent presidential polls for the state of Virginia show that Obama has leads of 3, 4, 8, and 5 points. But the data tell a different story. If you are interested in polls, this post offers a chance to look at polls by actually analyzing data, rather than simply looking at the final "result" that the media release. The method used here to calculate is open and honest, and offers a data-driven perspective of what story the polls might actually tell. Using the same data - but actually analyzing it - shows possible Romney leads of 4, 8, 2, and 2 points.
Come on folks; don’t lose heart. Remember: Gallup Polling had Jimmy Carter leading Ronald Reagan by 6 points on October 27, 1980, just about a week before the election. Reagan won by 10 points. That is a 16 point differential. Relax. I believe the tide is going to turn big-time for Romney after the debates.
That would cause another series of questions on technicality of my relations. Worth trying though :)
The Obama based polling firms (i.e. any of them based within the MSM like Reuters/Ipsos or NYTimes) will continue to oversample Democrats in larger and larger numbers to “show” how Obama’s winning. Right now two or three of the ones in this article are using a D35 / R25 split - and the race is STILL within the margin for error!
They will skew the respondent pool however they have to in order to protect Obama. I’m only partially kidding when I say I expect to see an article which reads “Obama takes 55-45 lead in latest poll!” with “respondents comprise the staff at the White House” in 3 point font buried deep within.
There is a saying that goes “torture statistics long enough and they’ll say anything you want”. This is a prime example of that truism.
When it comes to polls, always, always, always, look at the sample sizes and methodology (likely voters, registered voters, adults etc...). Always.
I hate to say it, but I think we are in trouble.
1) Mitt has allowed himself to be defined
2) Mitt cannot get his message through ads or MSM
3) Mitt does not seem to be taking the gloves off
4) Mitt does not seem to want to spend the money.
McCain Style Campaign = Campaign Style Result
Of course, if you want to believe polling that assumes Obama will turn out more voters in 2012 then he did in 2008.
Anyone really think that is a rational assumption?
The only thing that matters is voter turnout. Obama voters are more likely to stay home. Will they? Pray for rain on election day.
Party affiliation? Republican.
I’m praying that Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, LasVegas, Reno, Madison, Milwaukee, Detroit, Flint, Cleveland, and Columbus will have unseasonably cold weather with blowing rain all day on election day, November 6. And, that there will be an early blizzard on in Denver and Boulder.
That's a nail-biting answer! Likely ignored due to improbability of such combination.
Also that “Puma” (?) thing. The belief that Hillary voters would vote for McCain to spite 0bama.
Er, no.
I have explained this to people here a hundred times and apparently no one is listening so I'll try it one more time.
Working in GOP county HQ in 2004 and 2008 we were told EXACTLY the same thing: "If we get out our base, we will win. That's all there is to it."
That was absolutely true in 2004. Do you know why? Because REPUBLICANS VOTED FOR THE REPUBLICAN.
In 2008, we had the same formula: If we get out Rs, we win. So all the polls said that McCain was losing, but all the internals said the Rs were turning out.
Who was right? BOTH. The Rs turned out and 25-30% voted for Obama.
Now, if you really, really think that 25-30% of Republicans will vote for Obama this time around and that no Dems will vote for Romney, feel free to be depressed.
But I happen to think that we are back to 2004: that if the Rs turn out, we win huge, because a LOT of indies (a majority) will vote for Romney and Republicans will turn out in slightly higher % than Dems.
I continue to think that Romney has a real, unadjusted/unjimmied lead of 2-4 points nationally about about 300-310 EVS. But you can call me crazy. . . just as they did here on FR in 2004 when the "exit polls" said at 4:00 that Kerry had won and I was screaming to everyone that our internal poll flushing showed Bush had already won.
I live in Loudoun County and I can second what you are seeing.
In 2008, Obama signs were everywhere in NOVA.
In 2012, not so much. Even my bluest, Prius-driving neighbor has nary a sign this time.
You should take Sunday jaunt out on Mosby HWY/RT 50 towards the hinterlands that border Winchester.
It’s awash with Romney.
Agonizingly beautiful area, too.
[yeah, it was sort of a “pilgrimage” for me]
LOL
Good post, LS... thanks!
Except that has to do with voter turnout and enthusiasm. McCain didn’t get the turnout and Obama did. People were assuming a big fear of Obama vote that did not happen.
This time around their is a huge voter enthusiasm to vote AGAINST OBama...even if Romney isn’t exciting..because he is a known quantity. Obama isn’t firing up his base as much as 2008.
A lot of the polls are leaning toward a 2008 model, rather than a 2010 model...which would be a Romney blowout win. Obama will get better turnout than 2010 though, because he is on the ticket.
But, it won’t be 2008.
That alone puts many polls in question.
Yes, that’s true. Not too many Republicans in the Gov’t Bureaucracy. :-)
2008 was a lousy year. not only did you have “hope and change”, you had everybody depressed by the lousy economic news, which they mostly blamed on the “party in power”, which they mistakenly were told again and again were republicans, even though the democrats controlled congress.
And it was clear by election night that the race was over, which further depressed republican turnout.
In Virginia, we don’t register by party. But you can at least see who people vote for when they show up at the polls. In 2008, people voting were voting democrat, seen in the congressional races as well as presidential.
By 2009, the republicans were back voting. The republicans beat the democrats by about 56% to 40%. And again in 2010, republicans beat democrats by about 56% to 40%.
Now, could I believe we’d retreat? Maybe, but republicans in this state are pretty popular. But I don’t see how democrats win the turnout race this time around. People just aren’t that thrilled about Obama, and frankly, there are neighboring states that have real challenges so the democrats can’t send their operatives from Pennsylvania and North Carolina into Virginia this year.
Who was right? BOTH. The Rs turned out and 25-30% voted for Obama.
I believe Churchill said that “Democracy is like a raft. It won’t sink, but your feet are always wet.”It feels like we’re in up to our knees now, tho . . .
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