Posted on 09/20/2012 11:20:44 AM PDT by nhwingut
Mitt Romney remains slightly ahead in the swing state of Iowa.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows Romney with 47% support to President Obama’s 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Exactly... the recent polling data for FL, OH, WI and VA is rather grim right now.
Actually reweigh the sample in the Ohio-VA polls to match the current party registration for each state and things do not look so good for 0.
Pretty easy to show your side up when you over sample Dems double digits.
Anyone really think Obama is going to do substantially better in those 2 states in 2012 then he did in 2008?
The Media pollsters think he will. I don’t agree
I thought Wisconsin was very competitive. Do we have a poll that puts Romney ahead?
Not when you reweigh the polls to reflect current voter registration in those states.
The polls that look so grim are assuming Obama will do better in 2012 then he did in those state in 2008.
Really believe Obama will turn out more voters in 2012 then he did in 2008?
Every battleground poll over the past couple days has Romney ahead or improving. Looks like that MSM hitjob to try to kill Romney’s campaign over the past week or two hasn’t worked too well.
If Obama gets...
NV - Likely according to approval rating and Paul-tards
PA - More skeptical recently, but seems to be safe Obama
then he only needs Virginia, Michigan and Ohio and he wins.
Virginia might be slipping out of reach unless the Romney camp does something soon. Ohio (ignoring weighted polls) seems to be close, and Michigan, while it leans toward Obama, has 10% undecided, which is good news for Romney.
One thing is for sure, we need Florida. There can be no question about us winning Florida. The recent story about Dem registration failure looks good for that state.
OK! OK. I got it. It has been a pretty good day.
But the O vs. R Rasmussen poll was, at least for me, a bit of a downer. The move to O +2 just looks like more than the normal polling “noise”. We need things trending for Romney not Obama.
But in Virginia, and to a lesser extent Ohio, Obama’s base is black. They are going to turn out in droves.
Not if they go to church.
Actually the polls are from the same day. It entirely possible. The Rass national poll shows an abnormally good day for Obama. That could be a statistical blip, not a new trend.
We will have to wait 4-5 days to see if that is a new trend or statistical noise.
No but the serious polls show Romney within the margin of error in WI. The polls that over sample Dems from +11 to +7 show Obama winning.
Actual voters registration in WI is 38D to 34R. No way to rationally justify the Democrat oversample in those media polls.
I think PA is hopeless.
I can’t see any way to construct a credible scenario where Romney wins without either Ohio or Virginia, other than getting Wisconsin.
Possible but highly unlikely.
Sure they are. But the current party registration in VA is 39R to 36D. No way to justify oversampling Democrats in a VA poll UNLESS you want to generate a predetermined result.
So show me a 39R-36D poll sample showing O winning in VA
Yes and I think that is why they released the 47% video when they did...to stop the trend.
I’s sorry. I just pointed out it is happening in today’s polls. So it not only “possible” it is currently happening.
Nope.
Show me a poll that has a sample mix of 39R-36D in VA that shows Obama winning.
39R-36D is the current voter registration mix in VA.
Crazy how we look better in Iowa and Colorado than some other more Red-leaning states. Weird election. IMO, it probably has a lot to do with Obama’s ads vs. Romney’s in Ohio, FL, and VA. Romney’s could be much, much more effective.
That is data showing an abnormally good 1 day swing to Obama.
That is data. Now you present data, not just your opinion, showing that data false.
In those Fox News polls they did likely voters and they did very likely voters. In the later, They were tied in Florida, Romney was up one point in Ohio and BO was up two in Virginia. But BO is always below 50%.
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