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I agree with you.

Polls are historically since Dewey rather accurate

However, the sampling in this round does seem to always except with Rassmussen be using 2008 as representative for their samplings per party.

hence it is a possibility that if the samplings are weighted too high for Democrats this time around in most polls I've seen that they could actually be wrong

aside from Rassmussen and some of the less known outfits I've seen none that are not oversampling Democrats by at least 4-6 points and also with a huge ambiguous self identified Independent bloc

if this were true it would indicate polling propaganda on the scale of the 2004 exit polls purposeful subterfuge

this time around obviously all gloves are off for the media and their polling arms no question

but...given how abysmal Obama is, our numbers should be creaming him...

trending demographics are killing us number one

second, he and his team are lackluster and playing it too safe with all that cash unless they plan something huge towards the end

i think most have already made up their minds

>> However, the sampling in this round does seem to always except with Rassmussen be using 2008 as representative for their samplings per party.

Rasmussen is not calling cellphones - that’s why his poll is cr@p. He skips about 25-30% percent of the households, and those which he misses have a definite Dem tilt (younger, more urban etc...)

I will be surprised if the exit polls this year match Dem +8 result from 2008, but D +5 electorate is quite possible this time.

2014 is another matter, the midterm electorate is always much smaller and older than in presidential years. But 2014 is still far away.

“this time around obviously all gloves are off for the media and their polling arms no question
but...given how abysmal Obama is, our numbers should be creaming him...
trending demographics are killing us number one
second, he and his team are lackluster and playing it too safe with all that cash unless they plan something huge towards the end
i think most have already made up their minds”

I, too, would enjoy a big victory for Romney, but I don’t think it’s a-comin’...

Lots and lots of “pannin’ the pollsters” in this forum, but there remain a few of them who seem to value credibility over credos. So it becomes a task of separating the wheat from the chaff, insofar as the polls go.

This election will be won in three states:
- Ohio
- Florida
- Virginia

Chances are, without these three, Romney cannot win. And his numbers in OH and VA just aren’t looking that favorable right now. That may change, but at least in Virginia, Obama is already scratchin’ at the 50% line. Not good.

Of late there have been some interesting rumblings out of Colorado (9 electoral votes) and New Hampshire (4), and perhaps Iowa (6).

If ... just if.... Romney can win CO, NH and IA, he can then afford to lose either OH (18) or VA (13), and still win the presidency.

If Romney loses both OH and VA, he cannot win.

If Romney loses FL, he cannot win.

There’s a lot of Pubbie’s whistlin’ past the graveyard right now.

But in the end, the election boils down to cold, hard numbers in a very few states.

Republican “enthusiasm” will count for nothing in November, if we don’t win Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.

I hope I’m proven completely wrong on election day.
But that’s how I see it....