Rasmussen: R 46, O 46: With Leaners: R 48, O 48. Obama at -11%.

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 09/23/2012 | Scott Rasmussen

[SoftwareEngineer]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

When “leaners” are included, the candidates are tied at 48%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.

[Mad Dawgg]

"I have to agree and it’s why I posed the question, how can Obama win with such a large deficit among indies...even using 2008 turnout models??"

[nhwingut]

You can even go back to 1996. Clinton won indies by 8. And won national margin by exactly 8.

Essentially indies have reflected national margin - and tend to lean D - meaning Rs can lose by a coupe of points and still win. Whereas Dems need to win indies by at least +3 to win outright.

So there is no statistical model which would allow Obama to lose indies (by more than 3) and win the general.

[profit_guy]

[profit_guy]

I find it hard to believe that 11% of the GOP would vote for Obama, but only 8% of Dems would vote for Romney. I would think even more Dems voted for Walker in Wisconsin, and that’s what I expect we’ll see again in November - unexpectedly more Dems voting for Romney.

[Alex Baker]

Everyone knows Romney needs to improve his messaging. He needs to first debunk Obama’s successful messaging:

1. Republican ideals DID NOT get us here. It was toxic home loans - thanks to Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, and 9-11.
2. It doesnt take 4 years to turn around the effects of a recession if the correct policies are in place. Kennedy, Reagan, and Clinton (really Newt) all showed us how.
3. Communicate what we knows works.

A good resource for clear messaging I have found on realitybatslast web page.

[jocon307]

All tax returns that are put on extension and not filed by April 15 must be filed by 10/15 so the timing of this doesn’t surprise me.

It also shouldn’t surprise anyone that his return took this long to prepare. It is often the case with complex returns and tax payers who get income from many sources that the return is delayed.

I won’t go into more detail, but I just want to put it out there that this is a common occurrence and not some suspicious thing.

[nhwingut]

That’s odd. It shows 46-46.

But on expanded, Obama is up 47-46 (Certain plus Likely). With leaners it is 48-47, Obama.

Am I missing something?

[Intolerant in NJ]

4 - the economic disaster was essentially turned around before Obama ever took office by the passage of TARP which loaned money to financially strapped institutions to get them functioning again - but Obama squandered the money - eg spending funds meant to get GM operating again instead to refund union pension and health - thus making the disaster worse.....
None of it is complicated, if only Romney would get talking on it.......

[Jake8898]

When was the last time the Republicans turned out more than the democrats in a presidential election?

[Leto]

Who cares the pubs were +1.3% in 2010 why would the dems do better this time?

The survey Rasmussen of party affiliation show the pubs up. Why no?

Virtually every poll (including Carville/Greenberg)show Romney leading by double digits among independents.

Do you think the number of dems is really great enough to overcome THAT?

[Jake8898]

I bought into the sunshine being pumped in 2008 and was truly disappointed. I hope you’re right. I just have to err on the side that I will be disappointed again and anything better is gravy.