Posted on 09/24/2012 7:18:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Registered independents? Registered with who/what?
This poll was from a little over a week ago:
Polls show Romney soars with independent voters
EXCERPT:
a figure buried in the report shows Romney leading Obama among likely independent voters, 54 percent to 40 percent.
Both Democrats and Republicans believe independents will be critical to deciding the outcome of the election, in part because they make up a growing part of the electorate and are considered up for grabs because they fluctuate in their political preferences from one election to the next.
“That’s a significant lead,” said pollster Ron Faucheux.
It was the independent vote that helped Obama win the 2008 election. He won 52 percent of independents, compared with 44 percent for McCain. Independents comprised about 33 percent of the overall vote in 2008.
“If Romney can beat Obama among independents this time, he can win the election.”
True, but it's the D/R mix that's really important. In this case, it's not far off...
If the D/R ratio is OK, but they're both high (and I is too low), it's a marginal effect. If Romney is up by 10 among Indies... and Indies should be 30% vs 15%, he would only gain 1 or 2 points in a 36/33/30 breakdown, vs the current 43/40/15.
considering the way the media covered Romney’s 47% remarks 24/7 and depressed obama’s lies on the libya assault, Romney being within the margin of error is a victory...
i watched CNBC this morning in the gym, actually read the closed caption as volume was off...they had a female GOP strategist (former Gringrich campaign manager) and a rat strategist....they made obama look foolish for his 60 minutes interview last night...as the GOP rep said, “last week on univision he said his greatest failure was lack of immigration reform...three days later on 60 minutes he says his greatest failure was not changing the tone in Washington- obama changes like the weather”...
even the hosts at CNBC applauded Romney saying the specifics he laid out, means testing for SS and removing some deductions for high income earners, is a must strategy...the rat clown even agreed with that...my question is, why is Romney not forcefully making this case???
...and the poll gives the Dems a 3% lead over the republicans with or without leaners when Rasmussen’s ID poll shows that Repubs are ahead of the Dems in voter ID by 4.3%.....
...and the poll gives the Dems a 3% lead over the republicans with or without leaners when Rasmussen’s ID poll shows that Repubs are ahead of the Dems in voter ID by 4.3%.....
Thanks for your informed insight.
So if you roll it all up... does a 49/48 Baptist split pass the smell test? Or not?
Independents were actually 33% — it drops to 15% when they are pushed to “lean” toward one party or the other.
RE: does a 49/48 Baptist split pass the smell test? Or not?
I would say that most Baptists are Evangelicals ( conversely, not all Evangelicals are Baptists ).
IMHO, In the end — evangelicals will overcome their concern with having a Mormon as president and reluctantly vote for Romney as the much lesser of the two evils.
They will reason that we are not voting for a Pastor but a commander in chief and it is better for someone whose social values ( at least in terms of rhetoric ) matches theirs than the other one who is KNOWN not to be sympathetic at all to their social concerns.
So no, 49/48 is a little bit too tight in my opinion. I believe Romney’s eventual lead among the Baptists will be much bigger than that.
Had the candidate been Santorum, Newt, Cain or Bachmann, this would not even be an issue at all... but here we are — we’re stuck with Mitt... the lesser of two evils.
>> Had the candidate been Santorum, Newt, Cain or Bachmann, this would not even be an issue at all... but here we are — we’re stuck with Mitt... the lesser of two evils.
True enough, but water under the bridge at this point. We have to do the best we can.
Thanks and FRegards
Those here with all the hoopla ..I never figured out what their denominations were.
I am Southern baptist.
I don't personally know any that will not vote to remove Obama.
We don't agree with tenets of Mormonism or several other denominations.. ..but..most Mormons I know are very traditional trustworthy folks who I like being around and we view our cultural struggles in similar fashion.
I go to a large traditional praise oriented SBC congregation and it is pretty much in the open that we have to get rid of this guy...yes...even hinted from the pulpit
not like black churches but more open than usual
black churches for all the blather...are social and fiscal libs with tiny exceptions
for one thing...serial illegitimacy is well tolerated by them even if there is disdain for the homosexual agenda...they will vote Obama...their brother
Disagree on all fronts. All the GOP primary candidates have significant flaws. Perhaps we should admit that only a minority candidate like Rubio would be performing where we all know the GOP candidate should be. The demographics of this country have changed dramatically, and conservative white men and women are demonized by the MSM such that a guy like Romney will always be handicapped at least 5%. Herman Cain made a lot of us delirious with love (I included), but as time marched on he showed some flaws that would have made him a weak nominee (adulterer, somewhat inarticulate, to name two such flaws).
The future of the GOP has to include nominees like Rubio, Cruz and Martinez, or a true conservative of a black man without skeletons. The era of the white guy is soon to be over, regardless if Romney wins.
>> Disagree on all fronts. All the GOP primary candidates have significant flaws.
That’s fine; it’s certainly your perogative, and the “flaws” statement is a truism.
But you may have lost sight of the context of my exchange with SeekAndFind.
SeekAndFind was musing that BAPTISTS — not GOP/Conservative voters in general — would be coming out in greater support for a candidate like Cain, Bachmann, or Santorum than they apparently are for the Mormon candidate Romney.
I can’t help but agree with that — it seems obvious to me.
FRegards
In other polling the “leaner” support for Obama is weak. It shows that 3% of Romney learners say they can be swayed but 9% of Obama learners say they can be swayed.
This race is not over by a long shot.
I don’t believe anyone gives a crap about what pollsters think of them. Not even a teenage girl.
You can’t just completely unskew the polls and believe they are accurate. I believe Romney has a 1-point lead or is even with Obama right now with at most a 1-point lead for Obama possibly. But, it is insane to think Romney is ahead by 7. You can’t unskew the polls and assume that is accurate to the people who took the poll.
They are basically assuming Ras party ID will be correct for TURNOUT purposes, which would be a historic number of GOP voters not seen in over 100 years. That’s not logical. I am inclined to believe the Gallup results with a +1 GOP is more accurate. I think Romney wins and the polls are skewed Dem, but you can’t completely unskew them. It’s somewhere in the middle of the Romney up 7 and Obama up 7.
My thinking is they are on the right track, but it would be nearly unprecedented for their model this time to be correct. That said, the polls mostly use 2008 results and aren’t realistic, which is what the site is trying to correct. I would guess maybe GOP +1 (as Gallup shows) or slightly Dem, maybe Dem +2 max.
Let’s do this, since no one seems to be in agreement. Dems had a huge turnout in 2008. GOP did well in 2010. In the polls we seem to be arguing about which way the numbers should be skewed due to historical assumptions. I do not have time to do the math, but what would the results of these polls be if they were weighted 33% dem/ 33% GOP and 34% Independent. I realize that the party affiliation as a whole will be higher for the GOP, but to weight it in this way should compensate for those areas where there is a Dem advantage. I am just guessing here, trying to come up with a tenable solution.
2010. Unlikely that tsunami is still running as high in 2012, but I believe the water is still high enough to sink Bobo. R1+I3 would do it.
2008 had people who don't vote, never voted, vote in spectacular numbers.
Every axiom of electoral polling states that people will revert to their usual voting behavior absent the motivation to continue. Every number to date says that motivation is not there: Amish are down in interest, Jooz are down in interest, maybe the Sandra Slutz contingent holds steady, while the married middle class is mad and motivated for Mittens.
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