Posted on 09/24/2012 8:22:02 AM PDT by lasereye
President Barack Obama has opened a national lead in a tight race that’s been static for much of the year.
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground of likely voters finds little good news for Mitt Romney but a race that remains competitive.
Obama leads 50 percent to 47 percent, which is within the margin of error. His 50 percent job approval rating puts him at a crucial threshold for an incumbent seeking reelection. It’s an uptick from the spring and summer, but 48 percent still disapprove.
Romney, meanwhile, finds himself sliding in the wake of two events — the choice of his running mate and the Republican national convention — that were supposed to buoy his candidacy. His unfavorable rating ticked up from 46 percent to 49 percent over the past seven weeks, as the share viewing him favorably held steady at 46 percent. Personal likability boosts the president, who is viewed favorably by 53 percent.
“The window is narrowing for Romney, and he’s in deep, deep trouble,” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who helped conduct the bipartisan poll, said Sunday.
“Ultimately, people don’t like this guy. If they don’t like someone, it’s hard to get people to vote for him — particularly to fire someone they do like.”
The universe of voters who might change their mind also has shrunk significantly. One in five supporting a candidate said they’d consider someone else last month. Now it’s closer to one in 10. Regardless of who they’re supporting, 60 percent now expect Obama to win. Democrats say this will fuel late Obama momentum. Republicans think pro-Obama turnout could drop off if people expect him to win.
The poll’s Republican pollster, Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group, notes that Romney is winning independents by 2 points.
“Our original premise that this was going to be a very close race is just reinforced with most of this data,” he said. “This race is far from over.”
Obama now ties or has an edge over Romney on who is best to handle every major issue except the federal budget and spending.
Romney has lost his edge on jobs. A month ago, he led Obama by 6 points on the question of who is best equipped to put Americans back to work. Now they’re even. Among those who say creating jobs is their top priority, Obama’s up 11 points.
A slight majority disapproves of the way Obama’s handling the economy, yet he narrowly leads Romney on who is better to manage it.
Approval for Obama’s tax policy has risen from 46 to 51 percent in the last month, and Obama has a 4-point edge on who will better handle the issue after the two tied in the previous poll.
“For the first time in decades, Democrats have persistently had an advantage on taxes,” said Lake. The Democrat has also expanded his advantage on Medicare. He leads Romney by 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent, on who can better handle the entitlement program. The president had a 4-point edge in the week before Romney announced Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as his running mate.
Well, I’ll tell you. This “unskewed polls” idea is going to be the scoop of the year/decade if it turns out to be right.
It is going to look like silly wishful thinking if it turns out to be wrong.
I sure do hope it is the former.
see: Whats up with the polls http://www.teapartytribune.com/2012/09/22/whats-with-these-polls-romney-51-8-obama-44-r52-o45-r54-o44-r51-o44-r50-o45/
Of course Politico covers up the fact Romney wins middle class voters by 14 points in this poll
I think D+3 is about average for Presidential elections. It’s not the D+9 like some other polls have.
I agree many of the polls are clearly skewed but it seems www.unskewedpolls.com weights the polls to be about R+1 based on Rasmussen.
http://www.examiner.com/article/is-the-latest-washington-post-abc-poll-skewed-for-obama
There hasn’t been a Presidential election with R+1. Bush’s wins were with a small Democrat edge in party ID. I don’t see why it should be R+1 any more than it should be D+9.
In September 1980 Carter was up in the MSM polls over Reagan by eight points and in October 1980 he was up on Reagan by nine points in the MSM polls.
In November 1980 Carter lost to Reagan anyway.
In November 2012 Obama will lose to Romney anyway.
Answer: they tick up the weighting factor for Democrat-leaning voters to push Zero’s numbers up by 3.
Per Fox, Who would best represent the middle class? Obama: 58% Romney 37%. Of course, this doesn't address the issue of the Romney ads praising Obama for being a good dad. Why is Romney throwing the race? What happened to "the strong finisher Romney"? All those years, all those campaign millions, all those primary opponents gutted like trout. And in the home stretch, we have Romney the Millionaire Nerd praising Obama as a "good person." Are Republicans insane?
And as mentioned in an earlier reply, 60-40 in rural areas. The problem is given the demographic shifts in the nation, these groups are now or are becoming minorities. That said, of course the polls are skewed and meaningless prior to the debates. The rub is though that demographics are destiny.
“There hasn’t been a Presidential election with R+1. Bush’s wins were with a small Democrat edge in party ID. I don’t see why it should be R+1 any more than it should be D+9.”
A couple of reasons. Rassmusen reports a R+3.4 registration advantage this August via its party self-identification poll. Second, a number of polls are reporting a significant Republican enthusiasm advantage, thought right now the ObamaMedia is vigorously trying to spin this the other way.
Of course, national numbers are essentially meaningless though anyway, because what really counts is what people in the battleground states are going to do.
That’s because you haven’t talked to anyone who lives in Spain.
I agree reasonable polling sample is +3-4 Dem. Skewing it the other way based on a single Rass poll is probably not reasonable.
break down of demographics is crucial
I don’t think any poll showed Carter up those amounts that late.
I think that’s bogus. I clicked on the link to the poll and it give “page not found”.
“I don’t see why it should be R+1 any more than it should be D+9.”
Precisely! You have it smack on. You are questioning the polls and my point is that if we are going to blast the MSM polls we may as well blast the unskewedpolls.com polls. 95% of the Freepers on this forum discuss the polls as if they are true and Freepers have no ability to properly resist them and discuss them.
There are too many facts that point to an Obama wipe out which is why the MSM is counter spinning so hard. It is so obvious;yet, people on our side just fall apart the moinute they read the MSM polls and have no ability to think critically.
At least your above statement says that you have the ability to resist the propaganda and read through the lines. Too many people love to preach doom and gloom becasue that is the lazy man’s way to fall I love with his own opinion.
Can you say President Romney?
Here is what it comes down to IMO. If Obama can get the same turnout from the base as 2008 then he’s no worse than tied nationally and probably ahead in the swing states. I don’t see how there could be a wipeout unless the polls are clearly over estimating the Dem base turnout. We won’t know if that’s the case until election day, but the Dems have a good GOTV operation.
POLITICO = House Boy
Wipeout because the enthusiasm is substantially down amongst all of Obama’s voter groups. If Obama was so much more ahead why even bother campaigning. He can play gold all day long if he has it so much in the bag. He is not is he? why is he cramming so many fundraisers if he is doing so well? Why is he having trouble raising money if he is doing so well. the facts point to a wipeout. The pollsters including Raz are fearful. I can imagine the unreported attacks Raz is experiencing for even polling a little different thean the Kool-aide drinkers.
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