Posted on 09/24/2012 8:22:02 AM PDT by lasereye
How the eff does this happne?
I know this poll was taken at the height of the 47% attack by the lib media and has a D +3 advantage.
Well this poll like Ras ^ Gallup is using a +3 D model the Gallup and Ras Party affiliation surveys are showing a +R affiliation. Ras’s is probably high at +4.3% R the rebalancing is using a +1.23% R model which I believe is the Gallup party affiliation model. The Ras Oct number will be released on Oct. 1.
The 2010 turnout was +1.3 R so the 1.23% R is very realistic.
Using that adjustment here:
http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
Remarkably all 3 polls from today (Ras, Gallup & Battleground) when rebalanced come out the same, 49.89% Romney, 46.28% Obama, the number of undecideds is ~3.6%. If they split say 2:1 for Romney (a bit low by historical standards) we have Romney leading 51.9% to 47.5%.
Again this corresponds very well with the Economic state by state prediction.
From the CU website:
“The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble, said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obamas 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner, said Berry. The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If its the former, the president may receive credit for the economys trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.”
I trust this ‘non political’ analysis far more than the speculation of the pollsters. It really is the economy as Carville said.
I would also note that Romney is leading by double digits among independents in all these polls.
Normally we are regaled in stories in the MSM about the importance of independents, hear ANYTHING About Indies this year?
Nope just crickets.
Think about it folks.
I didn’t say Obama’s way ahead. I said there’s no wipeout for Romney coming if Obama gets the Dem base to turn out. Obama would have an excellent shot to win in that case.
Using the 2010 turnout is ridiculous. There is no repeat of 2010 coming. The turnout will be somewhere between 2008 and 2010. D+3 is probably about right.
I very much disagree As politico reported back in April. Dem registration is DOWN in just the battleground states as reported by Politico hardly a RW site:
“A new report on voter registration trends finds that Democratic voter registration is down by more than 800,000 since 2008 in eight key battleground states.
GOP registration has also declined but by only 79,000, a tenth of the Democrats losses.
Meanwhile, registered independents are on the rise, increasing their numbers in those states by nearly half-a-million.
The analysis, conducted by centrist Democratic think tank Third Way and appearing first in POLITICO, points to the critical role independent voters will play in determining the presidential outcome in some of the most competitive states on the 2012 map Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
The biggest independent gains came in North Carolina, the site of the Democratic National Convention this year and a state that was decided by less 15,000 votes in 2008. While both major parties lost ground there in the four years since then, Democrats have been especially hard hit: Registration fell by 116,662 (4.1 percent), compared to a GOP decline of 13,017 (-0.7%).”
Couple this WITH the Double Digit Romney is holding among independents.
So be as pessimistic as YOU choose there is noting in the hard data to support your POV other than your ‘feelings’.
Personally I leave feelings to libs, I try to deal with whatever facts are available and try to draw logical conclusion from the data.
But then again, nobody has had this bad of an economy on their record in 30+ years...
Can you recall the last time we had a president as divisive and incompetent as Obama?
Prior to 2010 when was the last time the GOP were +60 in an election in the House. ;)
That’s my point. An R+1 would be a first since probably back in the twenties. Could it happen? Sure. Can we assume it will happen? I think that’s a stretch.
I wonder what the numbers would be with D+1 or even. That would still indicate things are better for Romney than most polls are showing.
Wrong poll that must be the one with the +10 democrat internals but thnx anyway
won’t happen
Using Ras numbers from yesterday the numbers are using a model where R=D, ie 35/35/30%.
46.9% Romney 50.4% Romney getting 70% Undecided
45.4% Obama 46.9% Obama gettint 30% Undecided
2.9% Other
5.0% Undecided
Keep in mind Romney is getting a +12 margin with Independents. I think about 1.5% of the others will go to Romney or Obama.
No I cannot. But still, presidential elections always have more drones.
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