Poll: Obama ticks up on Romney in tight race

President Barack Obama has opened a national lead in a tight race that’s been static for much of the year.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground of likely voters finds little good news for Mitt Romney but a race that remains competitive.

Obama leads 50 percent to 47 percent, which is within the margin of error. His 50 percent job approval rating puts him at a crucial threshold for an incumbent seeking reelection. It’s an uptick from the spring and summer, but 48 percent still disapprove.

Romney, meanwhile, finds himself sliding in the wake of two events — the choice of his running mate and the Republican national convention — that were supposed to buoy his candidacy. His unfavorable rating ticked up from 46 percent to 49 percent over the past seven weeks, as the share viewing him favorably held steady at 46 percent. Personal likability boosts the president, who is viewed favorably by 53 percent.

“The window is narrowing for Romney, and he’s in deep, deep trouble,” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who helped conduct the bipartisan poll, said Sunday.

“Ultimately, people don’t like this guy. If they don’t like someone, it’s hard to get people to vote for him — particularly to fire someone they do like.”

The universe of voters who might change their mind also has shrunk significantly. One in five supporting a candidate said they’d consider someone else last month. Now it’s closer to one in 10. Regardless of who they’re supporting, 60 percent now expect Obama to win. Democrats say this will fuel late Obama momentum. Republicans think pro-Obama turnout could drop off if people expect him to win.

The poll’s Republican pollster, Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group, notes that Romney is winning independents by 2 points.

“Our original premise that this was going to be a very close race is just reinforced with most of this data,” he said. “This race is far from over.”

Obama now ties or has an edge over Romney on who is best to handle every major issue except the federal budget and spending.

Romney has lost his edge on jobs. A month ago, he led Obama by 6 points on the question of who is best equipped to put Americans back to work. Now they’re even. Among those who say creating jobs is their top priority, Obama’s up 11 points.

A slight majority disapproves of the way Obama’s handling the economy, yet he narrowly leads Romney on who is better to manage it.

Approval for Obama’s tax policy has risen from 46 to 51 percent in the last month, and Obama has a 4-point edge on who will better handle the issue after the two tied in the previous poll.

“For the first time in decades, Democrats have persistently had an advantage on taxes,” said Lake. The Democrat has also expanded his advantage on Medicare. He leads Romney by 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent, on who can better handle the entitlement program. The president had a 4-point edge in the week before Romney announced Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as his running mate.

Well this poll like Ras ^ Gallup is using a +3 D model the Gallup and Ras Party affiliation surveys are showing a +R affiliation. Ras’s is probably high at +4.3% R the rebalancing is using a +1.23% R model which I believe is the Gallup party affiliation model. The Ras Oct number will be released on Oct. 1.

The 2010 turnout was +1.3 R so the 1.23% R is very realistic.

Using that adjustment here:

http://polls2012.blogspot.com/

Remarkably all 3 polls from today (Ras, Gallup & Battleground) when rebalanced come out the same, 49.89% Romney, 46.28% Obama, the number of undecideds is ~3.6%. If they split say 2:1 for Romney (a bit low by historical standards) we have Romney leading 51.9% to 47.5%.

Again this corresponds very well with the Economic state by state prediction.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

From the CU website:

“The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”

Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.”

I trust this ‘non political’ analysis far more than the speculation of the pollsters. It really is the economy as Carville said.

I would also note that Romney is leading by double digits among independents in all these polls.

Normally we are regaled in stories in the MSM about the importance of independents, hear ANYTHING About Indies this year?

Nope just crickets.

Think about it folks.

I very much disagree As politico reported back in April. Dem registration is DOWN in just the battleground states as reported by Politico hardly a RW site:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/dem-registration-down-in-key-states-132150.html

“A new report on voter registration trends finds that Democratic voter registration is down by more than 800,000 since 2008 in eight key battleground states.

GOP registration has also declined — but by only 79,000, a tenth of the Democrats’ losses.

Meanwhile, registered independents are on the rise, increasing their numbers in those states by nearly half-a-million.

The analysis, conducted by centrist Democratic think tank Third Way and appearing first in POLITICO, points to the critical role independent voters will play in determining the presidential outcome in some of the most competitive states on the 2012 map — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

The biggest independent gains came in North Carolina, the site of the Democratic National Convention this year and a state that was decided by less 15,000 votes in 2008. While both major parties lost ground there in the four years since then, Democrats have been especially hard hit: Registration fell by 116,662 (–4.1 percent), compared to a GOP decline of 13,017 (-0.7%).”

Couple this WITH the Double Digit Romney is holding among independents.

So be as pessimistic as YOU choose there is noting in the hard data to support your POV other than your ‘feelings’.

Personally I leave feelings to libs, I try to deal with whatever facts are available and try to draw logical conclusion from the data.

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