Washington Post Surveys Obama Re-election Team in Ohio, Finds Obama Leading by 8 (WaPo: O 52, R 44)

Battleground Watch ^ | 9/25/2012 | Keith Backer

[Qbert]

You have to laugh at the absurdity of polls like these as I broke down in the post below:

2008 was a best-in-a-generation advantage for Democrats

Obama’s job approval is locked below 50%

The unemployment rate has been above 8% for 3 years and it’s actually higher if you count the people so despondent they simply quit looking for a job

There isn’t one economic indicator that is positive for President

Obama and the economy always surveys as by far the #1 issue for voters (there is never even a close 2nd)

Every single survey shows Obama’s 2008 coalition is less enthusiastic in 2012 than in 2008 (especially Hispanics and the youth vote)

At the same time the GOP ground game has improved over its 2008 performance by at least 10-fold (that’s no exaggeration).

And yet polls like the latest from the Washington Post get published with a Gomer from the Andy Griffith Show feel of “well Goll-ly look how many Democrats there are, Obama must sure be popular.”  It is professionally incompetent and completely partisan advocacy to survey states or the nation this way but there isn’t a reader out there who doesn’t already know the press is in the bag for the Obama re-election team.  The partisan breakdown of the poll was D +11 for adults, D +8 for registered voters and D +7 for likely voters.  In 2008 Obama enjoyed an advantage of D +8 in Ohio (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30).  In 2004 this was a Republican advantage of R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).  Not the number cruncher @numbersmuncher broke down the Ohio returns and found that the party ID in Ohio was actually D +5 on election day, making this sampling even worse. Romney leads by 1% among Independents but the Washington Post finds Team Obama in full hopey-changey frenzy and by sampling 7% more Democrats than Republicans comes out with a result that Obama leads in Ohio by 8-points, 52 to 44:

For President Percent

Barack Obama 52

Mitt Romney 44

Other/Unsure 4

[Qbert]

D/R/I: 35/26/35 (!)

[Baynative]

[Leep]

I can’t imagine even if you are a old school democrat that you wouldn’t be creeped out at the level of media distortion and outright lies..?
Even if for no other reason that I would be worried what comes around goes around..?

[wbill]

All of these polls will start to "tighten up" by mid-to-end October, as the pollsters try to retain their credibility.

I've no idea why, for instance, NC is considered "In Play". Even with a once in a generation Democrat landslide in 2008, Obama still only managed to win by a few thousand votes.

It's not in the bag for Romney, though.

[vortigern]

In SW Ohio, there are virtually no Obama yard signs or bumper stickers... a few scattered here and there – nothing like 2008. Not many Romney signs either for that matter, but more than Obama for sure. Lack of enthusiasm for either candidate?

[xzins]

partisan breakdown of the poll was D +11 for adults, D +8 for registered voters and D +7 for likely voters

As the Post writes this trash, Ohio in its statehouse has: A republican House, a republican Senate, a republican Governor, a republican Sec of State, and a republican Treasurer, ALL statewide offices elected by the traditionally conservative majority in Ohio.

At best, Ohio should be viewed as 50/50 repubs and democrats. The real truth is that a decisive number of Ohio voters are not now and never have been locked into the party system. In fact, there's no such thing as registering with a party in this state. When you register you simply register. If you take a repub or dem ballot on primary day, then they list you as a repub or dem in their stats until the next primary day.

So, it's simply is not realistic to call Obama 2008 voters "democrats". They were folks who voted that way in that election, a different way in the previous election, differently in statewide elections, and differently in the 2010 election. They belong to no one.

Ohio is ALWAYS won by turnout. When Obama won Ohio in 2008 we had about 8 million already registered voters but only 5.5 million chose to vote.

Conservative apathy won for Obama and nothing else.

[musicman]

[lacrew]

Obama won Ohio by 5 points in 2008.

In 2010, the GOP won by 17% in a senate race, 2% in the governor race (beat an incumbant), won 13 out of 18 house races, beat the incumbant AG by 2%, won SOS by 13%, auditor by 5%, and treasurer by 14%.

Of course, the only conlcusion I can make is that Dems should be oversample by 11 points!

[Perdogg]

Ohio ping

[The Sons of Liberty]

It amazes me that the WORST occupant of the Oval Office, a TOTAL out and out FAILURE on all fronts, and there are those imbeciles who want to give him four more years! The only possible way he could do better is because it would be hard to do worse, but believe me, I think he might. Just wait ‘til we lose an American City to a raghead nuke, and Hussein can’t decide if it was a terrorist attack or not!

[LibLieSlayer]

Uh huh... sure he is.

LLS

[God luvs America]

is the spread nine or seven?? “but the Washington Post finds Team Obama in full hopey-changey frenzy and by sampling 7% more Democrats than Republicans comes out with a result that Obama leads in Ohio by 8-points, 52 to 44: “

[Qbert]

"In SW Ohio, there are virtually no Obama yard signs or bumper stickers... a few scattered here and there – nothing like 2008. Not many Romney signs either for that matter, but more than Obama for sure. Lack of enthusiasm for either candidate?"

Purely anecdotal evidence, but I'm hearing the same kind of thing in certain other states. There seem to be far more yard signs for Republicans in local and Congressional races than for Romney, and lawns that have signs for Conservatives in local races don't always have Romney signs. Maybe it's too early for people to get focused on the national race- I don't know.

I think Republicans will vote straight ticket, so I don't foresee it as a problem- still, I think people are waiting for Romney to be more forceful in taking a stand and making his case. (And "taking a stand" doesn't mean you have to take a questionable stance that you have to be defensive over- just take an all out assault on Obama's failures, and keep pointing out that things will never get better under Obama). Romney needs to show that "he's the guy"...

[WashingtonSource]

This poll deserves the “Most Biased Poll of the Day” award.

[esoxmagnum]

no matter the results, this election will be going to the scotus.

they will report all day how zero held the lead, so it is unfathomable that he could lose.

if that doesn’t work, look for executive order to suspend the election results because of a crisis.

the kenyan will NOT give up power.

[Reddy]

I think that’s going to be the playbook: If zero can’t steal the win, he will say that his opponent stole the election somehow... after all, zero was ahead in all the polls!!

[rollo tomasi]

Well a Congressional panel with discovery subpoena powers on the poll internals will put that conspiracy to rest quite easily. These polls are just momentum builders used to shape public perception. Ignore them personally but publicly make fun of the info.

[Qbert]

Yep. It’s an absolute joke.

This poll is simply designed to get the Obama cheerleader media talking about it all day.

Another bogus thing we’re starting to see in all of these questionable polls: Obama’s supposedly over that “50% hurdle” in all of the tight races. IIRC, he can’t clear a 50% approval rating in some blue states, but he’s somehow, magically above it in swing state races against Romney, in every race... (A skeptic might say that Axelrod ordered his minions to produce this result...)

[NeoCaveman]

Here in my part of Ohio, we’ve had our local yard signs for a while and just are getting our Romney/Ryan ones this week.

[Wiser now]

I have seen just a few Obama bumper stickers in the Montgomery cty. area and no yard signs. I can show you a spot that has a number of Romney and Mandel yard signs.