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Media Polls Are the Newest Negative Campaign Ad
Breitbart ^ | 09/25/2012 | Mike Flynn

Posted on 09/25/2012 11:29:52 AM PDT by nhwingut

Over the years, I've generally had little patience when partisans make the "polls are wrong" argument. I've usually found it to be the last refuge of campaigns who were clearly struggling. Sure, individual polls can be wrong and some can occasionally produce a crazy outlier, but, a collective average of polling produced a roughly accurate snapshot of the state of a race. This year, however, is different. The overwhelming majority of media polling this election employ such absurd assumptions about turnout this November that they not only misrepresent the presidential race, they are actively distorting it. I also believe it is intentional.

In 2008, the electorate that elected Barack Obama was 39% Democrat, 32% GOP and 29% Independent. This is what we call a D+7 electorate. Obama defeated McCain by 7 points, the same margin. In 2004, the electorate was 37% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 26% Independent, in other words D/R +0. Bush defeated John Kerry by 3 points nationally.

Yet, virtually every big media poll is based on a model where Democrats equal or increase their share of the electorate over 2008. Beyond simple common sense, there are many reasons this won't happen. The Dem vote in 08 was the largest in decades. It came after fatigue of 8 years of GOP control, two unpopular wars, a charming Democrat candidate who was the Chauncy Gardner of politics, a vessel who could hold everyone's personal dreams and hopes for a politician. It was a perfect storm for Democrats.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: mediabias; polls

1 posted on 09/25/2012 11:29:54 AM PDT by nhwingut
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To: nhwingut
Yet, virtually every big media poll is based on a model where Democrats equal or increase their share of the electorate over 2008. Beyond simple common sense, there are many reasons this won't happen. The Dem vote in 08 was the largest in decades. It came after fatigue of 8 years of GOP control, two unpopular wars, a charming Democrat candidate who was the Chauncy Gardner of politics, a vessel who could hold everyone's personal dreams and hopes for a politician. It was a perfect storm for Democrats.

Yep, pretty much.

2 posted on 09/25/2012 11:32:03 AM PDT by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
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To: nhwingut; All

This is the 2012 Democrat version of “dirty tricks.”


3 posted on 09/25/2012 11:35:39 AM PDT by loveliberty2
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To: nhwingut

With all of these bogus polls showing 0bama winning OH and FL, CNN still has both of these states yellow on their big board.

They know these polls are bogus.


4 posted on 09/25/2012 11:37:18 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: frogjerk

WaPo is out today with an Ohio poll showing Obama up by 8. The sample was D+10.

But will be reported (without mentioning the bogus sample) on all the nightly networks, and local Ohio news stations.

It’s pure corruption to depress base and create a Obama is inevitable meme for the low info voters (i.e. might as well go with the winner).


5 posted on 09/25/2012 11:37:59 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: nhwingut

Bingo...the polls are being used to manipulate public opinion...they are LIES.


6 posted on 09/25/2012 11:39:04 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: nhwingut
Excellent article, thanks for posting!

The bottom line....

Quite simply, and apart from past years, the media have decided to weaponize the polls.

Every election features something new, an evolution from past campaigns. This year's development is troubling. Polls are now being used, not simply to gauge the state of the race, but to impact the race. We're not far off from the day that the New York Times or CBS will have to file their polls as in-kind contributions to the Democrats.

7 posted on 09/25/2012 11:40:22 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: loveliberty2

Yep. They want to keep the donors giving $ and demotivate the Republicans.

2010 was landslide Republican election and things have gotten even worse sense then. The delusion that Obama was somehow at least competent with his foreign policy has gone up in flames. Full four years out and the economic track record is a disaster.

How could this be anything other than a landslide win for Republicans?


8 posted on 09/25/2012 11:41:20 AM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: TigerClaws

The only thing keeping it close is the low quality of our candidate.


9 posted on 09/25/2012 11:47:50 AM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: nhwingut

for later


10 posted on 09/25/2012 11:49:48 AM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
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To: ModelBreaker

Who else was electable at all on the national level? Of the serious contenders, who would have had a legit shot? Likely only Mitt from what we had to chose from.


11 posted on 09/25/2012 11:54:07 AM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: TigerClaws

Which of the other candidates could have survived this long in the media onslaught?


12 posted on 09/25/2012 11:57:38 AM PDT by digger48
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To: TigerClaws
Who else was electable at all on the national level? Of the serious contenders, who would have had a legit shot? Likely only Mitt from what we had to chose from.

Expanding to who we didn't have to chose from, Mitch Daniels probably would be doing as well as Romney right now. That's about it.

13 posted on 09/25/2012 12:06:05 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: nhwingut

It appears to me that the MSM is having its LAST big CRACKPIPE dream before they realize they’re OUT of CRACK and REALITY rears its head.


14 posted on 09/25/2012 12:10:59 PM PDT by VideoDoctor
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To: VideoDoctor

From one Doctor to another... I hope so.


15 posted on 09/25/2012 12:46:42 PM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
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To: VideoDoctor
Sadly, I think they know what they are doing. This is laying the groundwork for massive voter fraud. It's not about the votes but who counts the votes. Come December when Obama is reelected, Eric Holder will refuse to investigate any allegations of wrongdoing because the polls for the months running up to the election all showed Obama winning.
16 posted on 09/25/2012 1:16:22 PM PDT by Armando Guerra
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To: nhwingut
HEY MAIN STREAM MEDIA ? WHAT YOU SAY NOW ABOUT THOSE PESKEY CAMPAIGN FINANCIAL LAWS THAT THE SUPREME COURT OVERTURNED ? oohh YEAH, WHEN IT BENEFITS YOU AND YOUR ILK !

17 posted on 09/25/2012 1:33:54 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: nhwingut
Yeah, who's really paying for these heavily skewed Democrat polls ?
How come we don't hear the Democrats, Media crying about the Supreme Court overturning those peskey campaign finance laws ? Ohh, yeah, I forgot, only when it benefits them.
18 posted on 09/25/2012 1:41:33 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: who knows what evil?

Perhaps we should be sending this article to everyone for whom we have an email address. I did.


19 posted on 09/27/2012 5:57:11 AM PDT by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
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