Posted on 09/26/2012 12:34:43 PM PDT by nhwingut
Ohio is easily the most important state for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney as they head towards election day. It has clearly become the most frequently polled state, with polls showing either a dead even race or an Obama blowout win. Yet the details of the polls are far more interesting than what the simple results show, and nearly half of the polls show a turnout scenario favoring the Democrats that has never been seen before, while the rest mirror a rosy – and unlikely – 2008 turnout scenario.
The mainstream media is pointing to a number of polls and declaring that Obama has all but won Ohio. But, as has been the case all election in many state and national polls, the assumptions within those polls are highly unrealistic. That the media run with the incredibly unlikely numbers without true analysis is either journalistic laziness, or pure bias. Take a look at six recent Ohio polls and the oversampling of Democrats, and keep in mind that turnout favored Republicans by one in the most recent election (2010), while turnout favored Democrats by an average of just one point over the last eight years (Corresponding Obama lead is in parenthesis):
Gravis: Democratic Sample +10.3 (Obama +1)
ARG: Democratic Sample +10 (Obama +1)
NBC/Marist: Democratic Sample +10 (Obama +7)
Washington Post/ABC News: Democratic Sample +7 (Obama +8)
FOX News: Democratic Sample +6 (Obama +7)
Ohio Newspaper Organization: Democratic Sample +6 (Obama +5)
On average, these six polls have a sample that is 8.2 points greater than the Republican sample. The result is an average Obama lead of just over four points. Remember, the average Democratic voter advantage over the past four years has been roughly one point.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
And this does not include today’s NYT/CBS poll which is 10% so the average is now 8.5. Ridiculous and scandalous.
We need to be realistic. R&R have changed their message and their tone as they swing through Ohio currently. One has to assume they see some slippage in their internal polling in OH.
- - - -
Quinnipiac Pollster Admits: ‘Probably Unlikely’ That Electorate Will Feature Massive Dem Skew
NewsBusters ^ | 9-26-2012 | Matthew Sheffield
Posted on Wednesday, September 26, 2012 1:18:38 PM by smoothsailing
Do ANY of these pollsters remotely care about how bad it makes them look to be using such lousy reasoning for surveying 10% more of one party over the other?
Corruption gets worse by the hour. Fox just showed a compilation of Dem crap polls showing Obama up by 10 in Ohio — and the day’s not over yet.
I think you are right. I think we have our head in the sand. Just because we want it to be so doesnt mean it is. Im voting Romney regardless of what he does, just hope others do too.
“and keep in mind that turnout favored Republicans by one in the most recent election (2010), while turnout favored Democrats by an average of just one point over the last eight years” — Can somebody help me translate this?
Does it say, “Repubs had a 1% point turnout over Dems in 2010, AND averaged over the last 8 years, Dems have averaged a 1% point turnover advantage.”? I THINK that’s what it says.
As for the table: It says, I think, that the dems are being oversampled NOT by the 1% point that the last 8 years would justify, but they are being oversampled by 10, 10, 10, 6, 6, and 7 points?
Am I correct in that reading?
Thanks
I think you are right. But I think a lot of it has to do with the bandwagon effect - where voters want to be on the winning team. And so after 3-4 weeks of “Obama is on a roll” meme, the low info voters are jumping on board.
I would argue that if the pollsters used normal samples, i.e. D+2-3, it’d be a dead heat.
Romney is winning Indies in Ohio, but losing bigger than McCain (who lost Indies by 6)? Does not jive, Statistically impossible - unless you skew data so in favor of Dems.
People have to use common sense(Unfortunately not many people use it these days) if Obama were up 10 in Ohio than why the hell is Obama campaigning there? Its absolutely ridiculous how low these so-called pollsters have stooped to help their messiah Obama..they think people are stupid..to think that if Obama is up 10 points in Ohio and would bother wasting one second in a state where he is up THAT much..COME ON..I think its obvious that he is NOT up 10 in Ohio..just like he’s not up 12 in Wisconsin, another state he campaigns in
That’s what you are reading. Averaging the last 8 years, it has been a D+1 turnout - going back to 2000 election.
Point made.
No because they will do the same thing they have done every election season since 1980
They will push these pro Democrat polls all the way up to the the day before the election. Then they will do proper polling counting on people only remembering the last poll, not all the garbage polling they used prior to election day.
These polls are designed to do ONE thing, help elect Democrats.
No they do not care. As long as they are paid by liberal media to give the poll results that the liberal media wants then they do not give a damn about their reputation. They are in this business to make money and they know that the liberal media will always give them business...
Point made.
Novel, but intriguing idea
;)
Romney should authorize an Ohio poll that oversamples R’s by +12. The media would go nuts but would rightly point out that such gross oversampling makes the poll worthless....
I agree with you. He should do this, wait for the reaction, then go on TV and point out how this poll and others that favor oversampled Dems are wrong and how the media is fooling the people. Run against the media.
Brilliant!
Yeah, I read a the entire thing and another one, too. Amazing. Oversampling Ds by a number larger than the all time record D turnout. Not very likely, I think.
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