Posted on 09/27/2012 12:35:19 PM PDT by mojito
It isn’t unusual for the state of the polls to be a big issue this close to an election, but this week has been different from any previous campaign I remember — it’s not who’s ahead in the polls, it’s the polls themselves that are the big topic of discussion. My article “Skewed and Unskewed Polls” got picked up by both Drudge Report and Rush Limbaugh’s Stack O’ Stuff and — along with plenty of other contributions — made the topic of how polls are being performed into a national one.
The problem is that the discussion (as happens only too often) is now being led by people who don’t understand the whole topic very well. So let’s just talk about this a bit. I promise to almost completely eliminate the math; believe it or not, people can learn to reason about statistics without learning the central limit theorem.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Pass it along to a despondent conservative near you.
What surprises me is that I don’t read very much about the biggest dividend paid by the faux Dhimmicrat polls...when they steal enough ballots to win, they can say that is ridiculous, because he was leading in the polls before the vote!
Hi
You might find this article helpful
Excellent article. Thanks for posting.
I have sent it to my cell of The Vast Right Wing Conspiracy
This polling which shows Obama ahead is total BS being put out there so when he tries to cheat his way to victory it will not be so obvious. If a free and fair election were held today Romney would win in an unprecented landslide. He will have to do so in Nov to overcome unprecedented vote fraud.
This is why our little absentee spreadsheet project here on FR is so crucial. It is daily exposing the lie of the “+5,” “+10” Dem turnout models. If, as we show, Zero is down 70,000 votes in Cuyahoga Co., or (so far) losing Franklin ( which he won by 21 points in 2008 (!), then the pollsters are simply lying. We are doing what the drive-by pollsters won’t, namely get REAL numbers.
It’s a good article but lines like this:
“My article “Skewed and Unskewed Polls” got picked up by both Drudge Report and Rush Limbaugh’s Stack O’ Stuff ...”
don’t add anything to the analysis and just strike me as narcissistic.
Idiocy.
And as long as we play along with being fooled, we will ALWAYS be fooled.
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UnSkewed Polling Data
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| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Obama(D) | Romney(R) | Spread |
| UnSkewed Avg. | 9/4 - 9/20 | -- | -- | 44.0 | 51.8 | Romney +7.8 |
| Reason/Rupe | 9/13 - 9/17 | 787 LV | 4.3 | 45.0 | 52.0 | Romney +7 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 9/12 - 9/20 | 1437 LV | 2.9 | 44.0 | 54.0 | Romney +10 |
| NBC News/WSJ | 9/12 - 9/16 | 736 LV | 3.6 | 44.0 | 51.0 | Romney +7 |
| Monmouth Univ. | 9/13 - 9/16 | 1344 LV | 2.5 | 45.0 | 50.0 | Romney +5 |
| QStarNews | 9/10 - 9/15 | 2075 | 3.0 | 44.0 | 55.0 | Romney +11 |
| NY Times/CBS News | 9/8 - 9/12 | 1162 LV | 3.0 | 44.0 | 51.0 | Romney +7 |
| Democracy Corps | 9/8 - 9/12 | 1000 LV | 3.1 | 43.0 | 52.0 | Romney +8 |
| Fox News | 9/9 - 9/11 | 1056 LV | 3.0 | 45.0 | 48.0 | Romney +3 |
| Wash. Post/ABC News | 9/7 - 9/9 | 826 LV | 4.0 | 45.0 | 52.0 | Romney +7 |
| CNN/ORC | 9/7 - 9/9 | 875 RV | 3.5 | 45.0 | 53.0 | Romney +8 |
| IBD/CSM/TIPP | 9/4 - 9/9 | 808 RV | 3.5 | 41.0 | 50.0 | Romney +9 |
| ARG | 9/4 - 9/6 | 1200 LV | 3.0 | 43.0 | 53.0 | Romney +10 |
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UnSkewed Polling Data
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| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Approval | Disapproval | Spread |
| UnSkewed Avg. | 9/4 - 9/20 | -- | -- | 44.1 | 52.9 | Disapproval 8.8 |
| Reason/Rupe | 9/13 - 9/17 | 787 LV | 4.3 | 44.0 | 53.0 | Disapproval 9 |
| NBC News/WSJ | 9/12 - 9/16 | 736 LV | 3.6 | 44.0 | 54.0 | Disapproval 10 |
| QStarNews | 9/10 - 9/15 | 2075 | 3.0 | 45.0 | 55.0 | Disapproval 10 |
| NY Times/CBS News | 9/8 - 9/12 | 1162 LV | 3.0 | 44.0 | 51.0 | Disapproval 7 |
| Democracy Corps | 9/8 - 9/12 | 1000 LV | 3.1 | 42.0 | 55.0 | Disapproval 13 |
| Fox News | 9/9 - 9/11 | 1056 LV | 3.0 | 45.0 | 53.0 | Disapproval 8 |
| Wash. Post/ABC News | 9/7 - 9/9 | 826 LV | 4.0 | 45.0 | 49.0 | Disapproval 4 |
| CNN/ORC | 9/7 - 9/9 | 875 RV | 3.5 | 44.0 | 53.0 | Disapproval 9 |
I.E. the most recent National Journal poll on RealClearPolitics shows Øbama 7% above Romney.
Inside of this poll; among voters ages 18-29, members of the enormous Millennial Generation, Obama now leads Romney by 63 percent to 27 percent. That’s comparable to the 66 percent he won among those younger voters in 2008.
The problem for Øbama is that these kids are four years older and have now come to appreciate the joy of 25% unemployment and living with their parents.
While they may still tell a pollster that they support Øbama they are much less likely to vote.
In 2008 these kids were 18% of the vote, around 24 million. There were over 134 million votes cast.
In 2004 these kids numbered less than 20 million. They were excited about the Øne in 2008, are they excited enough to give up their time to vote this time?
It's one thing to tell some nameless voice who you prefer and another to get off ones butt and go to the precinct.
I believe the polls are ALL phony, but I also believe they become reality as they are released. The masses hear the numbers, they have no idea about particular methodologies , but they hear the numbers and they accept them.
I do not believe this is anything new, “science” in political polling went out the window years ago, if there even was any science ever.
The polling is all done by liberals one way or the other, Fox News is one of the worst culprits with the various pollsters they have contracted over the years.
We are supposed to accept Ras as being honest, if he likes the particular Republican personally, you have a better chance with him, that`s for sure.
If there ever was “science” in political partisan polling, the idea of actually averaging phony polls, has got to be the joke of the century.
RMoney puts it over in the first debate, they run tied to Election Day, PV 50-49-1 Mittens (or even tighter); Mittens wins with my tagline plus NH, CO, WI = 295-243EV.
The MSM shits a collective brick when always-prompt IA -- and the election -- are called for RMoney just after 9pm ET, and then he goes on to collect WI and CO.
Our long national nightmare is finally over, and our mildly discomforting daydream begins...
Nice find ...
It’s a close to even race, and the electorate will be D +2 or so...
JMHO.
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