Posted on 09/27/2012 3:11:48 PM PDT by nhwingut
One of my guys plugged into GOP circles in Virginia reaches out to me with the opening declaration, “Short attention spans.”
“That is the reason Team Mitt is holding back right now,” he says. “They know, as they proved in the primary, that elections are won and lost in the last two weeks and on the ground.”
Here the evidence has a few exceptions, as Romney was pretty steady in New Hampshire, but the former Massachusetts Governor did come back strong in the closing weeks and days of primaries in Florida, Ohio, and Michigan, and showed a modest closing bump in Iowa,
“With modern information overload, its not inconceivable for any candidate to turn things around in days. That was never the case prior to 2004 or 2008,” my source says. “If Mitt goes on an offensive over the next two weeks and performs well in the first debate, people will forget why they were down today AND Mitt will drive the comeback kid narrative.”
At first glance, one might worry about holding back for the final two weeks in an era of early voting. As NBC News notes this morning, “voters in 30 states — including the battleground states of Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Virginia — are now casting ballots, either via absentee or early in-person voting, per NBC’s Kyle Inskeep. Today, early in-person voting begins in Iowa and Wyoming, while absentee ballots are now being sent to voters requesting them in Alabama, Wyoming, North Dakota, Iowa, and Illinois. By the end of next week, voters in five more states, including Ohio and Florida, will join this list.”
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Yeah, just my first Romney ad in SW VA, watch a Tenn station. Seen maybe a dozen Obama ads.
GOTV- call give rides, whatever- for your conservative House or Senate candidate and if it helps Romney too ...
The more mitt reveals pre debates the more lies O can tell and take him off message.
I can attest for the Fla ground game as it focused on definite votes for Mitt,
Including written and phone surveying of how the vote wil be cast.
“Short attention span” is racist!
I understand their point about the last minute blitz, but with early, absentee, and mail voting, there are a lot of people that will have already voted by then.
However, I am not so sure those voters are all ones that have already made up their minds and cannot be swayed.
Also carpet bombing Newt who had no money and no media support (even from FNC) is far different than trying the same thing against Obama who has the power of the presidency, plenty of cash and the entire media at his back.
The strategy in a primary is completely different than the strategy in a general election. IN a primary, most of the voters are swing voters and can be easily persuaded one way or another. In a general election, voters form their opinions over a long period of time and those opinions become much firmer.
My local news station here in central VA did a segment on the Obama campaign offices that are popping up in the area. They plan to open several more in rural areas in the next few weeks.
Preibus is the architect of the Wisconsin Republican Tsunami of 2010. He did not pump sunshine, but gave a frank analysis of where we are and what they plan to do.
Contact Jet Jaguar if you want to be on our spreadsheet ping list.
Dosent early voting start in Ohio next week? I would think Romney by holding off until the last two weeks is going to miss lots of those voters..
It’s a risk, but so far the numbers we have aren’t showing that Romney is missing much at all. If we’re right, Obama has already lost.
It’s a risk, but so far the numbers we have aren’t showing that Romney is missing much at all. If we’re right, Obama has already lost.
Thanks LS. Encouraging news.
Things can change, but the trend is pretty encouraging.
LS -
I saw the spreadsheet, and I have two questions -
1. How much more time is there to request an absentee ballot? Could Democratic voters make up lost ground in Cuyahoga county over time?
2. In many of the large counties, the absentee ballots for Democrats and Republicans are about 50% of the total absentees requested. Is that about the norm?
Yes, theoretically there could be a big shift. But that's why it is important to note that the shifts ar cross EVERY county, suggesting this is a statewide tren and Ming it less likely that there "is a bag full of ballots" waiting to come in.
The late surge is how Santorum beat Mitt in Iowa. He surged in just one weekend despite him having no money and Mitt blanketing the airwaves with ads. Mitt then won in New Hampshire with no effort at all. Then Mitt lost in South Carolina to Newt solely because Newt killed it in the debates and Mitt got booed giving a horrible answer on the tax return question. Then Mitt came out hard against Newt in ads and in the Florida debate, and won it. Then Santorum slaughtered Mitt on Romneycare in the next debate and won the next few states in February. Then he and Mitt duked it out for a while, and Mitt just barely managed to squeak by him in a couple states by hammering him with negative ads, before Santorum gave up.
By this point the “conservative” media was firmly behind Mitt, labeling him “inevitable” and voters interviewed after voting usually just said they voted for him because that’s what the TV told them to do.
Hard to say what lessons Mitt can learn from this experience that can apply to the general election. One lesson should be never let your guard down, which is how he lost to Santorum in Iowa and Newt in South Carolina. When he failed to attack those opponents and played Mr. Nice Guy, they beat him. Another is, have a better answer for Romneycare and for your tax returns in the debates. Those two questions destroyed him in two debates. Another is, get the relevant media 100% behind you. Good luck on that one. And lastly, try to outspend your opponents 20 to 1. Looks like he’s trying to rig it so he can do that in the last week, by holding back now. Risky strategy.
Poll Ping.
There is a reason Obama seems to be in Ohio more than anywhere else- he is NOT leading by 10 points, or whatever the media is saying. Obama knew this years ago that Ohio would be a problem, and it apparently still is for him.
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