Skip to comments.Why Obama Will Lose in a Landslide (5/31/12)
Posted on 09/29/2012 11:11:15 PM PDT by smoothsailingEdited on 09/30/2012 1:23:49 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I dont believe its possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But on election day, Romney will win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. Thirty-two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
He makes a valid point one issue for sure; not one McCain voter will vote for Hussein. Another valid point is the application of common sense, something sorely lacking in all the coverage to date..
Sounds good to me....
I can’t find a flaw in his assessment, except for the Blacks, they will vote for him come Hell or Low water.. However, I know a few OBlunder supporters, and read the liberal blogs..
I didn’t believe he could fool so many in 2008, so what do I know
I have read that a lot of black pastors are telling their congregations to stay home and not vote at all (homosexual issue).
That will work as well.
I’m not even going to hit my back button. I’m just going to go right to bed. Kind of like strawberry jam to top it off!
Bookmarked...must send to some I know who are taking the “polls” to heart.
I don’t blame them, necessarily...Bath-House Barry has waged psychological warfare on the populace from day one, with the help of terrorist Ayers, socialist Piven and “Iranian of the Day” Valerie Jarrett, may she rot in hell; but of most importance-—the media in this country needs to be protested for their complicity in the downfall (hopefully temporary) of this great country.
Take names and record addresses of those that DON’T report the news...(just so we can send sympathy cards when Bath-House Barry bites the dust...politically speaking, of course.)
Bet - $2.14 - Romney to Win
Payoff - $10.00 - If Romney Wins
Unfortunately, InTrade is based in London.
Setting up an account, or trying to extract your money, is very complicated and very labor intensive.
I think there was another analysis that said if Romney just picked up the 2004 Bush voters that stayed home because they didn’t like McCain in 2008 and kept the rest of the base, he would win just on the math alone.
Polls don’t matter, the liberal media doesn’t matter, because in the end it all comes down to what kind of organization you have to get out the vote.
Bush and Rove had their act together in this area, I think McCain didn’t, but I would be surprised if Romney didn’t have the operations in place, considering he is a businessman and he had really good GOTV during the primaries.
Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008?
Gay, black women communists with free cell phones for 500 Alex.
Great post. And, I have just sent it into the emailsphere.
All we can do is vote and hope for the best and with a little luck Bath House Barry may get his deserved early retirement without achieving his socialistic agenda. And along with his charming wife can continue the lavish and expensive life style at taxpayers expense they have become accustomed to in Washington and live happily ever thereafter in Hawaii.
If you want to bet, go here. Safe and legal. Max of $500.
Nice analysis. I'd like to see a poll that includes this question and the responses to it.
GOTV is the drip irrigation of politics (as opposed to the sprinkling of broadcast ads that can evaporate before they hit the ground). I hope R+R have GOTV nailed down tight because in the end, this is all that will really matter.
Actually, for BJ Obama’s retirement it might be preferable for him to secure a lot on the Lake Of-Fire where he and the missus can spend the rest of their days swimming in seclusion with Saul Alinsky and their mentor, Lucifer.
Great post. I agree with this analysis completely. My own analysis of the polls includes one more thing - - the Bradley-Wilder effect. Some people will lie to pollsters and say they’re voting for Ubama rather than risk giving the pollsters the faintest idea that they might be racist by admitting they prefer the white guy.
Thanks for the post. One of the best I have read. Bump up.
Our 16% edge in enthusiasm plus Catholic vote and Obama’s done for.
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither.
Compared to this:
I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business that hed support unions over the private sector in a big way that hed overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didnt listen.
However, his analysis is SPOT ON!
I would trust a bookmakers prediction 100 times more so than any poll.
And they have this all figured out.
Got this in email from the Romney campaign yesterday...
Because of supporters like you, weve been able to build a record-breaking ground operation. With the help of nearly 73,000 volunteers, weve contacted 26 million voters and identified over 2 million swing voters.
That means weve made 6 times more phone calls and knocked on 16 times more doors than the entire 2008 campaign.
Youve made it more than a campaign -- youve made it a nationwide movement.
Those are impressive numbers and they could easily double between now and Election Day. I'm not overconfident but I'm feeling very good about this compared to 2008.
I signed up yesterday and got all my info verified, but it is the weekend. My wire won’t go through until Monday. By the time I am able to make predictions, Romney will be back up. :(
intrade, has Mitt at 21.5
I agree. This analysis puts into words what my personal gut is telling me. And you are right, since any.....any criticism of Obama is instantly demonized, many people are keeping their intentions to themselves....and will speak, anonymously and loudly, on election day. It’s in the air...this fuming feeling of horror and disgust of Obama and the DAMAGE he has done to this country in such a short time. He has got to go....or the country may well be lost. I’m not at all pleased with Romney....but I loathe, detest and despise his opponent.
Vegas Baby Vegas!!!.....warning language content
I have read that Romney has alreadt contacted as many voters as McCain did in 08 with a month left before voting. I think we are not seeing a ton of Romney ads because the money is being spent on phone banks.
Ummm, no he's not.
I think I have an idea what we are seeing in the numbers. It's something he says in the article about the small business owners: in 08, it wasn't just that people didn't like McCain. They were so ready for a change from Bush/2006-2008 policies that they were willing to vote for Zero regardless of his background, policies, or ideas.
I think the same is now true, to a lesser degree, with Romney. It isn't that people like or don't like his policies or ideas. THEY DON'T CARE anymore than in 08. They want Zero out, not Romney in!
What tells me this is the case is the lack of Romney signs and stickers---still far more than Obama this time around---yet there is a high level of local activity in phone banks (setting records in our are and, as I have heard, in FL) and walkers. These aren't "pro-Romney" people but anti-Obama.
Even the job approval, I think, doesn't reflect this in polls. I wonder if you had, without mentioning Romney, a poll that said something like "Do you think Obama deserves another 4years," his "yes" numbers would be in the high 30s.
You need to be added to our OH absentee vote thread. The #s are very good.
Wayne Allyn Root was the Libertarian VP candidate, and he is a Las Vegas oddsmaker. At first, I thought that this article was written by Root.
We’re to the point in the election where any positive opinion is treated as gospel and any negative opinion is treated as foul lies. It’s been that way since I’ve been on FR.
The election is close. Absent a serious screwup by either candidate it will remain close. It all boils down to turnout. hussein is a failed president with an incredible political machine and support of the state media. willard is a reasonably competent non-conservative with a much improved political machine. Neither inspire much enthusiasm outside of their hardcore supporters.
I think the south to a state goes for willard and the north with the possible exception of NH goes for hussein. And the election ends up being decided in the midwest.
The states to watch on the east coast are VA, FL, and PA. If PA, FL and VA go for willard, its over for hussein. If PA, FL and VA go for hussein, its over for willard. If it salts out how I think it will, PA will go for hussein, VA and FL go for willard and its decided in the midwest.
I agree, I have been thinking the same thing, 0bama is not picking up any new votes from 2008, I only see him losing voters in a pretty big way. The only way he gains votes is fraud, and I won’t put out of consideration for the rates pulling it out illegally...
When I google him, I get links quoting him that he ran as a Libertarian for VP, but I didn’t find links that showed he actually did that. I’m agnostic on that until I learn more.
Otherwise, his reasoning appears sound. Either his reasoning wins on election day, or the polls showing this race as beginning to pull away for Obama are baloney. It can’t be both.
I'm thinkin' maybe it was....see Post #23
What I took out of the info, directed to your point, is that he claims to be Libertarian. That would dovetail with his claim that he isn’t biased towards Democrats or Republicans because he’s one of them, as he claims many other predictors are.
That he saw Obama for the anti-capitalist he is doesn’t conflict with his claim to be outside the partisan two-party split, to me anyway.
I’m still waiting to find out if he really did run for VP on the Libertarian ticket. Others are saying he didn’t, and I haven’t been able to verify his claim other than that he said it.
Intrade doesn’t... Money to be made?
Setting up an account, or trying to extract your money, is very complicated and very labor intensive.
Darn, I was hoping I could make some money.
I also thought of Root when I saw this headline.
But the posting claims this is an op/ed by Paul Ebeling jnr.
Talk about confusing...
It looks like the writer claims to have run for VP on the Libertarian ticket, which would fit Wayne Allyn Root.
But the posting claims that the writer is Paul Ebeling Jnr.
ATTENTION NV TEA MEMBERS—NOBAMA RALLY TODAY IN LAS VEGAS
Got this from a friend in Vegas..I’ll try to make it, but it’s a 6 hour drive!
NOBAMA RALLY !!!!!
Join us to protest Obama this Sunday. We will meet up at Freedom Park (850 N. Mojave) at 3pm. Bring your flags, signs and maybe an “empty chair”. We will walk about 3 blocks over to Desert Pines High School where the annointed one will be reading his teleprompter. Overflow parking at Mike Morgan Family Park on corner of Bonanza and Sandhill.
Please pass this around! and please come!!
He fails to also mention that black voters that turned out in record numbers will not do so this year.
I’ll argue that O will get over 90 per cent of black. Just there will not be nearly as big of turn out.
A very reasonable analysis. Thanks for posting this.
|Presidential ticket||Party||Ballot access||Votes|
|Obama / Biden||Democratic||50+DC||69,456,897|
|McCain / Palin||Republican||50+DC||59,934,814|
|Nader / Gonzalez||Independent||45+DC||736,804|
|Barr / Root||Libertarian||45||524,524|
|Baldwin / Castle||Constitution||37||199,314|
|McKinney / Clemente||Green||32 + DC||161,195|
HE makes very cogent points, however, what he doesn’t factor in is that the Democrat machine in most urban areas is very capable of stealing elections. As we all know, you can will plurality, but if Romney loses and Florida and Ohio by just 1 vote and we end up with another 4 years of Obama.
And "they have skin ($$) in the game".