Posted on 09/30/2012 10:38:18 AM PDT by tatown
Ras does D+3 on national polls. He uses different samples for each state, i.e. PA D+7, WI D+5, etc.
Thanks. Makes that WI result look even more promising. We just need to turn out the vote
That is already factored in the approval number. He at 46% in spite of all those things. If he’s at 46% on Election Day, he’ll lose BIG.
That’s a good point. MI, PA and WI are not swing states. Those are blue states. If Obama were to lose any he’ll lose period.
Romney needs to win FL, OH, CO, VA. If he wins those 4 he’ll have 270.
I think it works the other way. The approval is a house of cards all based on race. Once the voters get in the booth with no echo of “you are a racist” they will easily check the ROMNEY oval and delete this thread in American history.
Here’s a chart I made based on 2008 results...
States McCain lost
49.38 North Carolina 196
48.82 Indianna 207
48.10 Florida 236
46.80 Ohio 254
46.33 Virginia 267
44.71 Colorado 276
Good info...I have been saying same. Remember when the early swing state polls had Romney up? All the media did was complain that Missouri and Indiana skewed the results.
Well, then they dropped those two (R states) and added Wisconsin and Michigan, two D state which then skewed the results the other way. PA is always considered a swing state even though it NEVER is in a prez race.
Bottomline: Obama will win PA and MI and probably WI. The only swing states Romney really needs to focus on are VA, OH, FL, and CO - as you showed. He wins those. He wins. None of the other states matter.
LOL, speak truth to power !!!!!
Obama’s approval rating -50%, along with Romney + among Independent voters = Romney victory.
Remember Gallup is still tracking Registered Voters. Since those track 2-3 points to the Left of Likely voter polls suggest Rass is closer then Gallup on where the voters are right now.
Count on the real approve is lower and the disapprove higher. Imagine an elderly person in the middle of a Rat thug infested area answering the phone and telling some stranger he/she disapproves of the community organizer.
Gallup without George Gallup, is just another partisan liberal poll...will come through for dems when the chips are down, they all will
No Science in political polling.
Fox, Ras whatever, ALL have agenda of some type
We are doomed, because the masses are led by the polls
LV polls usually are worse for Dems than RV or ‘adult’ polls.
Wi ground game well oiled and recently tested. Rats through everything they had at it. R’s have new credibility.
I saw a Libyan poll that had Obama at 99% with 1% undecided.
Obama has to win PA and MI
Romney has to win OH, FL, IN, NC, VA, MO
If either candidate loses those it is very unlikely they can make it up elsewhere.
Romney should at a minimum do better than McCain so IN, NC and MO should be in the bag no matter what.
2008 was weird. WI and IN voted much more rat than usual.
My understanding is that IN is now a Romney lock and NC is pretty safe Romney.Not sure about MO....in '08 MO was razor thin for McLame and it's hard for me to see a single state going stronger for Osama this time than last.
Gallup is sort of schizophrenic (and causing me to become psychotic). 46% of adults approve? Yet, he is getting 49% among registered voters (presumably narrower than adults)?
Yes, the RV tracking poll is a 7 day one, and the A/D poll is a 3 day tracking....so maybe in the last few days he is not dong too well.
Even so, it’s very difficult to match apples to apples here.
Which is to say: it call comes down to Romney winning in OH, FL and VA. Which is sort of where it has been now for a while.....
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