Obama Collapse in Illinois: Tied in District He Won by 23 Points in 08

Breitbart ^

[Perdogg]

Back in August, a poll showed Obama with just a 12 point lead over Romney in Cook County, Illinois. While he posted a huge lead in the city of Chicago, the poll found him actually losing to Romney in suburban Cook County. It was a shock that I set aside as an outlier. A new poll of Illinois' 10th Congressional District, which includes parts of Cook County, however, suggests the August poll might not be such an aberration. The poll, from WeAskAmerica, finds Obama with just a 2 point lead over Romney, 47-45 in the suburban district. Obama won the district in 2008 by 23 points.

[MitchellC]

How different does this district look from 2008, since it has been re-drawn? Weren’t these GOP-held districts drawn to give the Dems an overwhelming shot at knocking off the GOP incumbents? And if so, and assuming this poll is accurate, what then does it mean for Romney chances in IL (and beyond)?

[neverdem]

BTTT!

[DemforBush]

Just for the general FYI, I did a quick search on wiki, and it looks like Il-10 is a “swing” district that tends to elect moderate (or RINO, if you prefer) Republicans to Congress. That was Mark Kirk’s old House Seat, and it’s now held by Robert Dold, who has an ACU rating of 44.

Here’s the Presidential vote percentages from the last 3 elections (also courtesy of wikipedia)

2000 President Al Gore (D) 51 - 47%
2004 President John Kerry (D) 52 - 47%
2008 President Barack Obama (D) 61 - 38%

*

Even though I have little doubt that Obama will carry Illinois on election day, I do see some cause for encouragement here. If his numbers are that down in a district like Il-10, chances are they are also down in similar communities in the various swing states. A political barometer reading, if you will.

[scrabblehack]

Obviously if Obama carries IL, it wouldn’t be a woodshed proportion election.

[scrabblehack]

Wilson 1916 got fewer electoral votes (435 vs 277) but a greater proportion of the popular vote (42% vs 49%)

FDR 1940 got fewer electoral votes 523 vs 449 and a smaller proportion of the popular vote (61% down to 55%)

FDR 1944 got fewer electoral votes 449 vs. 432 and a smaller proportion of the popular vote (55% down to 53%)

[AuH2ORepublican]

Rumsfeld’s old CD was to the west of the Porter-Kirk-Dold CD (Rummy was succeeded by Phil Crane, and the CD is now held by Joe Walsh).

[scrabblehack]

The Wikipedia article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois’s_10th_congressional_district) looks like it is using the old lines.

According to our enemies at DailyKos, Obama would have won the new 10th 63-36 in 2008.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av8O-dN2giY6dENxMmFSYmgyNGRYcFEzTVBURTdjdnc

[AuH2ORepublican]

The IL-10, as drawn in 2001, gave President Bush 47% in 2004; as redrawn last year the Bush 2004 percentage dropped to 45%. Apart from Cao’s fluke win in LA-02 in 2008, the GOP hasn’t held a CD in which Bush got below 46% in 2004 since Leach of IA-02 and Simmons of CT-02 lost reelection in 2006. But Dold is liberal enough that he will get quite a few crossovers, and it might just be enough to win reelection in what’s looking like at least a decent GOP year.

That being said, President Bush got 44% statewide in IL in 2004, and I don’t see how Romney could possibly carry the state.

[1010RD]

The issue is down ticket. It would be nice to lose Schakowsky, et al.

[Perdogg]

It would not hurt to send Ryan to Rockford for a couple of hours, who knows?

[PhilCollins]

I live in the new 10th District, and I’ve been canvasssing my precinct, since I’ll be paid by the Dold campaign. I’ve talked to many voters who say that they’re undecided about the presidential race and the congressional race. I’ve talked to the same number of people who said that they’ll vote for Obama and might vote for Dold.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Obama et al are going on and saying Romney is lying and a different man than he was before the debate, but the fact of the matter, Obama is the one trying to act like something he is not at his convention and at the debate. It is too little, too late.

All politicians do that at least a little, but Democrats depend heavily on that tactic and are able to do so primarily because they are sailing down the propaganda wind generated by journalists who promote the idea that critics (themselves, and also Democrat politicians) are more valuable to society than are the people who work to a bottom line, providing food, clothing, shelter, etc.

He should have changed course in Nov 2010 after the historic drubbing he rec’d. Bill Clinton did that in 1994, and went on to be considered a successful (Democrat) POTUS.

It is really stunning that the country has elected someone who seems so arrogant. Wasn’t Clinton bad enough!

[PBRCat]

The Democrats are so confident about Schakowsky that the last two redistricting stretched her district into formerly Republican precincts in order to neutralize these areas and render their votes useless.

Speaking of useless, I wish the public had more opportunities to hear Schakowsky speak. Apart from being a Marxist ideologue, she is a total idiot. She cannot manage to conduct a coherent conversation and can only scream and repeat slogans.

[ctdonath2]

Let’s make sure they’re being mowed down just on the left.

[sarasota]

My liberal friend is suicidal.

[JustSayNoToNannies]

They are a month old! Sept. 4-10. Why don’t they have more recent figures?

Either nobody's polled Illinois since then because it's assumed to be solid blue and so of limited interest - or it's a conspiracy.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Well, it certainly wouldn’t hurt Schilling (who had Rockford added to his CD this year), but I assume that unless and until Romney-Ryan have nailed down Wisconsin that they won’t be sending Ryan into Rockford.

[Ann Archy]

Cook County has a LOT of Jews.....hope they are WAKING UP BEFORE the shiite hits the fan.

[Ann Archy]

Cook County has a LOT of Jews.....hope they are WAKING UP BEFORE the shiite hits the fan.

[Lee N. Field]

Unless all the minority men are ineligible to vote.

Felons?