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CU-Boulder prof's updated forecast still gives win to Mitt Romney
Boulder Daily Camera ^ | Oct. 4, 2012 | Brittany Anas

Posted on 10/04/2012 12:54:11 PM PDT by Second Amendment First

With the presidential election a little more than a month away, political science professors from the University of Colorado have updated their election forecast with more current economic conditions and are standing by their prediction that Mitt Romney will win.

The professors -- Kenneth Bickers of CU's Boulder campus and Michael Berry of CU's Denver campus -- project that Romney will earn 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes.

President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes, which is down five from the initial prediction that the professors announced on Aug. 22.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said in a prepared statement. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

The model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and, they say, it is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. To make their predictions, the professors comb economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

The professors' model includes state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in income.

The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. This is the last update they'll release before the election.

The U.S. Department of Labor's jobs report will be released Friday.

The professors have identified 13 battleground states and the only one to change in the update was New Mexico, which they now predict as a narrow victory for Romney.

The model predicts that Romney will carry Colorado, with 53.3 percent of the vote.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; election; elections; kennethbickers

1 posted on 10/04/2012 12:54:15 PM PDT by Second Amendment First
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To: Second Amendment First

It must pain them terribly to say it.


2 posted on 10/04/2012 12:56:05 PM PDT by lurk
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To: Leto; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

God willing, let’s make it happen.


3 posted on 10/04/2012 12:57:09 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: lurk

Good news...

One point of disagreement — i don’t see any way Romney wins New Mexico...but hey, we don’t need it anyway.


4 posted on 10/04/2012 12:59:17 PM PDT by Tulane
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To: Second Amendment First

And what is the track record of this so-called model, may I ask?


5 posted on 10/04/2012 1:00:20 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

100% accuracy going back to 1980.


6 posted on 10/04/2012 1:03:19 PM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry (Audentis Fortuna Iuvat)
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To: Tulane
One point of disagreement — i don’t see any way Romney wins New Mexico...but hey, we don’t need it anyway.

Agreed. They (Dems) will either win NM decisively or steal it, 2000 style.

Too much self loathing going on in that state for some reason.

7 posted on 10/04/2012 1:04:34 PM PDT by cicero2k
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To: Tulane

They predict that Romney will win ME-2.


8 posted on 10/04/2012 1:05:22 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: SeekAndFind

Analysis That Hasn’t Missed Since 1980 Predicts Romney Will Win Big
August 23, 2012

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2012/08/23/analysis_that_hasn_t_missed_since_1980_predicts_romney_will_win_big

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: “A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every US president since 1980,” they’ve never missed, “forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney,” and he will win 320 electoral votes. It’s a University of Colorado analysis. It’s not a poll. It’s an “analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every US president since 1980,” and they haven’t missed.

“The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. “’Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,’ said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

“According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1%, when considering only the two major political parties.” Now, that doesn’t factor a third party or minuscule write-ins. They just look at the two primary candidates.

“’For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,’ said Berry. ‘The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office.’” I don’t know where he gets that, but regardless, this guy says: “What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former [in relative terms], the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term.


9 posted on 10/04/2012 1:05:45 PM PDT by Second Amendment First ("Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not..." - Thomas Jefferson.)
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To: Second Amendment First
From the document by the university. Remember, this is the TWO PARTY vote. If there is some scumbag third party thrown in taking away votes from Romney, Obamugabe could STILL win a state with less than 50%.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

10 posted on 10/04/2012 1:38:53 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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Comment #11 Removed by Moderator

To: Tulane

Looks to me like they have Obamugabe getting 50.93% of the New Mexico vote. So where do you disagree??


12 posted on 10/04/2012 1:40:39 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Second Amendment First

269 would be adequate (assuming we take the House),330 would be excellent....an irrefutable repudiation of this nation’s first Community Organizer In Chief.


13 posted on 10/04/2012 2:38:03 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: SoFloFreeper
From the document by the university. Remember, this is the TWO PARTY vote. If there is some scumbag third party thrown in taking away votes from Romney, Obamugabe could STILL win a state with less than 50%.

You wouldn't be referring to

Virgil Goode

or

GARY JOHNSON

Would you?

14 posted on 10/04/2012 2:41:30 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: Gay State Conservative

Goode, Johnson and Stein will get their 1-2% of the vote. If you normalize the polls the 52.5-46.6 scenario looks to be accurate.


15 posted on 10/04/2012 2:49:24 PM PDT by Leto
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To: Gay State Conservative

Luckily Johnson has taken a lot of Obama voters as well, so that should be a wash. Goode could hurt us though.


16 posted on 10/04/2012 4:35:28 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Second Amendment First
The professors -- Kenneth Bickers of CU's Boulder campus and Michael Berry of CU's Denver campus -- project that Romney will earn 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes.

After yesterday's debate, that number might be end up being higher.

17 posted on 10/04/2012 4:44:44 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: Buckeye Battle Cry
just remember... this year, the votes are being counted in Spain

Spanish Company Will “Count” American Votes Overseas In November

http://www.westernjournalism.com/spanish-company-will-count-american-votes-overseas-in-november/

18 posted on 10/04/2012 8:18:01 PM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: Chode

isn’t that a Soros owned company?


19 posted on 10/04/2012 8:37:17 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: GeronL
no idea...
20 posted on 10/05/2012 5:03:51 AM PDT by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: All

The map would look as follows under this projection:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ExS&referring_service=google#.UG8ULByRKPU.google


21 posted on 10/05/2012 10:30:19 AM PDT by wrhssaxensemble (We need an electable conservative in 2012!)
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