Skip to comments.Boing! (3 Swing State Polls: Romney up in Ohio, VA and FL)
Posted on 10/05/2012 8:08:07 AM PDT by nhwingut
Few disagree that Mitt Romney won Wednesday nights presidential debate. Even fewer would argue against the notion that Romney sorely needed that performance to put his campaign back on track. With the national polling averages hovering around three percent in Barack Obamas favor, Romneys inability to gain traction was resulting in a pundit-driven drum beat of inevitability.
Not so fast there, muchachos. Polling in key states has shown a widening gap, but in many states, the spreading numbers have been more meandering that directional. True, if it had continued that way the election could have gently slid into the point of no return for Romney, but they didnt. Theres still time for this thing to get real interesting. Could Romneys debate performance be the key that unlocks a surge?
To find out, we cranked up the blowers last night in Virginia, Ohio and Florida to ask the electorate who they would vote for if the election were held today. Here are those topline results along with the splits among Republican/Democrat/and Independent voters (self-described by participants):
Each of these automated polls had 1,200+ responses from likely voters. MoE 3%. Each was weighted to correct for over-/under-sampling among select demographics.
(Excerpt) Read more at weaskamerica.com ...
Wait a minute!
We’re supposed to give Obama a mulligan, because he didn’t have a chance to adjust to the altitude in Denver. And, so that he has a chance to watch MSNBC and get advice from Chris Mathews, Rachel, Ed Schulz and the “Toure” dude.
Careful. VA and FL probably oversampled Republicans for a change. Those percentages may be what actually turns out at the polls but they are skewed compared to whatever polls you might be comparing them to.
Just wait until Joe Biden gets finished bring sexy back to the democratic party next Thursday in the debate against Paul Ryan. /sarc
Until someone shows me a poll with sampling percentages based on 2010 turn-out I’m not listening.
What??? Are you skeptical of all these polls showing Obama ahead???? Do you really think that they would doctor these poll numbers, to create the impression that Obama is more popular than he really is????
No response = Obama voter.
I read a couple good analyses suggesting that voter self-identification is fluid for swing voters, so when polls keep showing a lot of oversampling of Ds it may indeed mean that the D brand is doing better, and vice versa.
It’s entirely possible that after the debate, some small % of swing voters refer to themselves as R rather than D, similar to the inrease in support for Romney.
Wait until Paul Ryan humiliates Zero’s right-hand-man Biden next week - I think we’ll see the polls shift even more towards Ryan-Romney.
a huge number of viewers for the debate, incidentally:
I’ve finally seen a couple of Obama yard signs in the western suburbs of Philly, but it’s mostly repub signs where I’ve been driving around.
5000 feet just isn’t enough altitude to matter.
We have several towns in California that are above 8000 feet, and nobody seems to have any difficulties in them.
Can you post some of the details? Link won’t open for me.
"With each recent poll, Ohio has begun to look less like a swing state and more like a road map back to the private sector for Mitt Romney."
We ask America Poll
OH - Party ID was D +4 (Dem 38, Rep 34, Ind 28).
FL - Party ID was R +5 (Dem 33, Rep 38, Ind 29)
VA - Party ID was R +2 (Dem 32, Rep 34, Ind 34).
now lets be honest with ourselves; is the +5 GOP in Florida a concern????
Click on the links above to see more.....
But Gallup said that party ID did not matter. It does pretty much match Ras D+3 survey.