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Obama to lose Illinois?
Investors Business Daily ^ | 10/06/2012 | Bruce K.

Posted on 10/06/2012 2:47:45 PM PDT by dialup_pundit

When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.

In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.

That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate vote...

Now comes a new poll from WeAskAmerica that finds Obama with just a 2-point lead over Romney, 47-45, in a suburban Chicago congressional district that Obama won in 2008 by 23 points.

Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/100512-628435-polls-show-obama-could-lose-illinois.htm#ixzz28X8nPjpF

(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Illinois
KEYWORDS: 2012election; 2012polls; bluestate; il2012; illinois
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Right now President Obama is reaping what he sowed. His anti-business policies, his foreign-policy disasters, his campaign of half-truths, and his poor debate performance have brought the state of Illinois into play. Of course the Daly Machine probably keeps enough corpses ready to vote, so that winning Illinois is a fairy tale. But, what a dream that may be coming. Al Gore lost Tennessee and the White House.
1 posted on 10/06/2012 2:47:49 PM PDT by dialup_pundit
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To: dialup_pundit

Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.


2 posted on 10/06/2012 2:50:08 PM PDT by Holly_P
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To: dialup_pundit

Slowly the poll misleading strategy of Dems is fading.

What are the rules of Obama keeping his campaign money? Didn’t Buchanan do this? Be a nice Hawaii house.


3 posted on 10/06/2012 2:50:26 PM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: dialup_pundit
Chicago has more per household debt than any other large city.

More shooting murders.

Unemployment catastrophically high.

Teacher Union marxism displyed only recently.

Now a wholesome mid-westerner is running the Repub ticket as VP, showing that the mid-west can be different.

Chicago may finally be tiring of their decades-long tribulations.

4 posted on 10/06/2012 2:51:21 PM PDT by what's up
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To: dialup_pundit

He’s going to lose California, from where I sit!


5 posted on 10/06/2012 2:56:54 PM PDT by big bad easter bunny (If it weren't for coffee I would still be living with my parents!)
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To: big bad easter bunny

“He’s going to lose California, from where I sit!”

Granted, I am in Orange County, California but I have seen many more Mitt signs than Obama signs including cars.


6 posted on 10/06/2012 3:07:15 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: Holly_P
Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.

Likely? Yes. Done deal? No.

Voter registration in Chicago is down. Voter interest is down as well. Blacks will vote for the O overwhelmingly again, but the numbers likely won't be as large this year as '08. The same for democrats in general. If this holds true and if the GOP does well in collar counties and downstate, it could be an interesting night here in Illinois.

7 posted on 10/06/2012 3:11:08 PM PDT by bcsco (Bourbon gets better with age...I age better with Bourbon.)
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To: dialup_pundit

It would be hilarious if Obama won only HI, MA, and VT.


8 posted on 10/06/2012 3:15:38 PM PDT by Theodore R. (`)
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To: dialup_pundit

While I still think we will be looking a very close election night, it’s numbers like this that make the notion of a Romney landslide seem at least possible. From what I’ve read, the IL-10 is a swing district, with a history of electing moderate-to-liberal Republicans (Mark Kirk, Dord, etc.) to Congress and being close when it comes to Presidential elections (2008 being a notable exception).

If Obama is losing those folks in Illinois, chances are he is losing similar groups in places like Ohio, Wisconsin and other battleground states.


9 posted on 10/06/2012 3:15:57 PM PDT by DemforBush (100% Ex-Democrat.)
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To: dialup_pundit

When and IF Biden endorse Romney-—then all bets are off.


10 posted on 10/06/2012 3:17:55 PM PDT by Mark (Don't argue with my posts. I typed while under sniper fire.)
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To: dialup_pundit; Impy; InterceptPoint; SJackson; oswegodeee; Inyokern; MarkL; expat1000; ...
Now comes a new poll from WeAskAmerica that finds Obama with just a 2-point lead over Romney, 47-45, in a suburban Chicago congressional district that Obama won in 2008 by 23 points.

Illinois' 10th Congressional District, which includes parts of Cook County, is an affluent district chock full of the same independent voters that will decide the presidential contest nationally. In 2008, Obama won 61% of the vote there. Al Gore and John Kerry comfortably carried the district in 200 and 2004 respectively.

"For Mr. Obama to be in a statistical tie in an area that he won by around 20 points in 2008 truly reveals the failure of his presidency," said Illinois-based political consultant Paul Miller. "The economy is undoubtedly the key factor, but in suburbs with a large Jewish population, his treatment of Israel is also taking its toll."

The Republican Jewish Coalition, which is the major organization working the Jewish community for Romney, has been targeting Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Illinois has been one of the states with significant Jewish populations which is being essentially ignored as a hopeless cause. Smart or foolish?

One other point: Hard to get a handle on the accuracy of these numbers by congressional district because the districts are all redrawn.

11 posted on 10/06/2012 3:21:08 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: dialup_pundit

OTOH Mitt is going to lose his state so I’m not sure how this affects the chances of either candidate.


12 posted on 10/06/2012 3:24:34 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: Holly_P; dialup_pundit

I worked for Nixon-Lodge Campaign in 1959-60, and until all the dead/illegal/bussed-in Cook Cty votes were counted for JFK, we were comfortably ahead in Illinois. Somehow, Mayor Daley always managed to come-up with just enough votes to win every election for decades. Not much has changed. “The Machine” there, is quite corrupt, criminal and formidable.


13 posted on 10/06/2012 3:31:11 PM PDT by carriage_hill (Libs, dems, unions, leftist scum & murderous muzzies - are like bacteria: attack, attack, attack!)
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To: Holly_P
Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.

This smells bad to me, like a head-fake designed to pressure Romney and the RNC to spend money in Illinois rather than elsewhere.

Two historic precedents for this sort of thing. First the Bush/Cheney 2000 campaign leaking bogus polling info about Al Gore's support collapsing in CA (followed by a sudden trip by candidate Bush to the state) to draw attention away from what was happening in West Virginia and Tennessee.

Second, Ben Bradlee's infamous "in kind contribution" to the Mondale Campaign in 1984 with a bogus WashingtonPost poll showing Reagan's support in CA collapsing as well. The Reagan/Bush Campaign had to funnel over $1 million extra into CA for another poll and additional outreach ... thus denying Reagan Minnesota and a 50-state sweep.

The focus right now needs to be OH, VA, FL and NC.
14 posted on 10/06/2012 3:32:50 PM PDT by tanknetter
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To: dialup_pundit; All
If the Communist (They are so far out there, I don't even call them Liberal anymore) Media on the National and State levels weren't so in the tank for Zero, I think Romney would be able to pull a Reagan or even better. (All 50 states? Really!)

I believe the harsh reality for this and the last Presidential election season: There are well-funded Communists/Leftists Radicals who have invaded our school systems, our government, and our news agencies. They have shown that they are not above lying, cheating, and intimidating to win and keep power. It will take all our Conservative grassroots organizations combined to fight against them all, and to reeducate current and future generations the meaning of "Liberty."
15 posted on 10/06/2012 3:33:24 PM PDT by hawaiianninja (Palm note to self: Work for a successful 2012! +Throw the liberal garbage out!)
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To: dialup_pundit
I don't think this will happen in Illinois, but let me tell you a story. I live in the Chicago suburbs and the other day I was walking my dog, I only remember seeing one Mitt sign, but then I thought back four years ago to that time of year, at that time the vast majority 60% of the neighborhood was blanketed in Obama signs.

This time I didn't see a single one.

16 posted on 10/06/2012 3:41:05 PM PDT by erod (This Chicagoan will crawl over broken glass to vote the fake Chicagoan Obama out!)
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To: dialup_pundit

If anyone out there has a spare $1 billion they’d like to use to set up a Super PAC, this would be an interesting experiment...however, not really worth it to divert any current resources away from the key battlegrounds for the main campaign orgs. Still...Donald Trump - you out there?


17 posted on 10/06/2012 3:41:05 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Holly_P
Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.

I wouldn't bank on it. I have family in Naperville, which is part of DuPage County just outside Chicago. I visit there about once a year. In 2008, the Obama signs were everywhere and he took the county by a 55-44 margin. (In 2004, Bush won by about the same margin.)

Not this year. My family reports that Romney signs are popping up like weeds and nary an Obama sign is to be found. There are a million people in DuPage Country and Romney is likely to win there by double digits (as Bush/Cheney did in 2004).

I'm not predicting that Romney will win statewide but I'm certainly not ruling it out and we shouldn't write it off.

18 posted on 10/06/2012 3:42:14 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: dialup_pundit

the obamanation cannot lose illinois, “the land of Lincoln”. I can guarantee that every rat and dead pub will rise from the grave and vote that it will never happen.

illinois is the most corrupt state in the union. run by the mafia.

blessings, bobo


19 posted on 10/06/2012 3:47:02 PM PDT by bobo1
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To: SamAdams76

In the least that will help the GOP hold more of the House seats than previously expected due to the redistricting skewed so heavily for the Dems.


20 posted on 10/06/2012 3:47:10 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: SamAdams76

I lived in Naperville for 20 years. It’s one of the reddest areas of the state. It’s where Cheney called Clymer a “Major League Asshole”


21 posted on 10/06/2012 3:48:43 PM PDT by MarkeyD (Obama is a victim of Affirmative Action)
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To: dialup_pundit

Since 100% of the precincts in Cook County are already counted, I suspect Obama is over the top in Illinois. Based on my Cook County entrance poll, I project Obama the winner in that state.


22 posted on 10/06/2012 3:49:08 PM PDT by stevem
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To: tanknetter

Very true - however, if you know anyone with a spare $1 billion for us to set up our own Super PAC (vs. having the RNC / Romney campaign and other current Super PACs divert resources from the key battlegrounds) as I said above, let me know...then we could experiment. ;-)


23 posted on 10/06/2012 3:49:08 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: MarkeyD

Actually if I remember correctly it was Bush that called him a major league asshole and Cheney replied “Big Time”


24 posted on 10/06/2012 3:50:00 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: MarkeyD

Actually Bush said that and Cheney said “Big Time.”


25 posted on 10/06/2012 3:50:00 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Holly_P
Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.

I agree. There is a whole lot of stupid in the Land of Lincoln.

26 posted on 10/06/2012 3:50:06 PM PDT by RobertClark (Be prepared, be polite, be professional and have a plan to kill everyone you meet.)
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To: Mark
When and IF Biden endorse Romney-—then all bets are off.

Dang it - coffee through the nose does not feel good. Thanks for the laugh!

27 posted on 10/06/2012 3:51:54 PM PDT by RobertClark (Be prepared, be polite, be professional and have a plan to kill everyone you meet.)
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To: dialup_pundit

I think it is possible for him to lose Illinois. Chicago has an 11% unemployment rate and I think a lot of people are getting tired of his BS.

Illinois is in play.


28 posted on 10/06/2012 3:53:23 PM PDT by buffaloguy
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To: dialup_pundit

The race baiting does not work either.

People know what is going on in Chicago and that the Dems are letting it happen in the name of race. They know nasty criminals will bring down cities in the US because people will move out and stay out. Before Rudy, NY city was sunk. Wall Street was looking to relocate because they could not recruit workers.

Liberalism is repeating itself economically and socially.


29 posted on 10/06/2012 4:09:30 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: dialup_pundit

A favorite aunt died in May. She was a die hard Conservative and despised Obama. At her funeral, a cousin gave her eulogy and told all of us how she regretted not living long enough to vote against O. But, he said ,we think we’ve solved that problem by burying her in Chicago. This was a crowd from Boston so the reviews were mixed.


30 posted on 10/06/2012 4:31:11 PM PDT by surrey
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To: dialup_pundit
With the long tradition of dead voters, Barry's former Chief of Staff now the Mayor of Chicago, the Democrat lock on the Metro East area near St. Louis, the gerrymandering of districts by the corrupt Ill-Annoy Speaker of the House, and the well-documented and largely ignored meddling of polling-place security studied by Argonne National Labs, and the politically imbedded teachers' union pounding the pavement, Barry will NOT lose Ill-Annoy....by hook or by crook and we have plenty of crooks.
31 posted on 10/06/2012 4:44:31 PM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.......)
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To: stevem

I grew up in the 11th ward, Mayor Daley’s ward.. On every election night, the faithful would gather and ballot boxes from GOP polls would come in and the new ballots were being filled out and the real ones were burned in 55 gal drums in the alley in the back..

There was a beer company, Nectar Beer, and bar, across the street, Halstead & 37th, that we kids would have to run back and forth to keep all of the workers in booze all night..


32 posted on 10/06/2012 4:50:42 PM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: tanknetter

Obama is running ads in the Chicago area. None for Romney so far. Tells me there is a concern. Axelrod runs the campaign from the Prudential office building in Chicago.

http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/David-Axelrod-Interview/10737431868-1/


33 posted on 10/06/2012 5:07:46 PM PDT by CreviceTool ( Obama is standing above the country above - above the world, he is sort of a God = Evan Thomas)
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To: dialup_pundit

Obama is being taken to the wood shed and is fixing to be bent over the saw horse and given a good ol fashion a$$ whoopin’.

I am loving the scurring of his little rat handlers trying to fend off his first debate failure.

The spending of his war chest on ads in a state (Illinois) that he should have sewn up.

Head people in the Rat party that are either MIA or still putting their feet in their mouths

It is all gravy people, enjoy it.

And what do we have to look forward to next week, Ryan/Biden debate....


34 posted on 10/06/2012 5:18:26 PM PDT by eartick (Been to the line in the sand and liked it)
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To: CreviceTool
Obama is running ads in the Chicago area. None for Romney so far. Tells me there is a concern. Axelrod runs the campaign from the Prudential office building in Chicago.

Respectfully, it may not mean concern so much as they want to let their hometown supporters know that they're in the fight and taking swings. Ads don't get run only to gen up votes, they get run to gen up donation $$$ too. They also get run to motivate campaign staff.

The ads Obama's running in Chicago should fall along the two extremes: Obama's a God and the guardian of freedom and democracy, Romney is pure evil and his policies will destroy the America the campaign staff/supporters all know and love. But none that are of the in-between/appeal to moderates and independents variety.
35 posted on 10/06/2012 5:24:43 PM PDT by tanknetter
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To: eartick

If Romney has a chance in Illinois, it will be because the people have finally woken up and realized what Democratic control has done to our state.

The State of Illinois is on the verge of bankruptcy and those in charge are in complete denial and running away from it as fast they can.

We have the highest gas prices in the country (at least until the gas crisis hit CA this week) and the worst business climate. Years of having this state run by the teachers unions and trial lawyers have finally taken its toll.

We can only hope.


36 posted on 10/06/2012 5:27:51 PM PDT by Friend of the Friendless (R-Illinois)
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To: tanknetter
RNC isn't going to waste money in Ill.

It is just an interesting observation.

37 posted on 10/06/2012 5:32:40 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: SamAdams76

I live very near Naperville, IL (in fact I once lived there) in Downers Grove. Nary an Obama sign to be seen, in fact nary a sign to be seen at all. Weird election this time around. I know DuPage County where I live will go overwhelmingly for Romney, as well as most of the collar counties surrounding Chicago. I also have friends living in Cook County, and believe me, a whole bunch of them will be voting Romney as well. In fact, I suspect that Chicago is the place where Obama will get the vast majority of his votes, there and a few areas downstate. The rest of the state will go to Romney. The question is, will the collar counties along with the rural areas of IL and most of downstate be able to offset the City of Chicago plus a few downstate areas. It’s going to be close folks, very close.


38 posted on 10/06/2012 5:34:44 PM PDT by flaglady47 (When the gov't fears the people, liberty; When the people fear the gov't, tyranny.)
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To: MarkeyD; SamAdams76; MinuteGal

“I lived in Naperville for 20 years. It’s one of the reddest areas of the state. It’s where Cheney called Clymer a “Major League Asshole””

I was at that rally. I loved Cheney then and I still love him now, cerebrally speaking. He’s my man.


39 posted on 10/06/2012 5:38:56 PM PDT by flaglady47 (When the gov't fears the people, liberty; When the people fear the gov't, tyranny.)
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To: ConservativeMan55

Yep, you are right.


40 posted on 10/06/2012 5:48:00 PM PDT by MarkeyD (Obama is a victim of Affirmative Action)
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To: tanknetter

I don’t care about Obama winning Illinois or California. But I would love to see him have to pour money in there.

The Romney strategy right now should be to have Super Pacs expand the field, move into new markets such as Philly, Pittsburgh, LA, Minneapolis, move the needle and force Obama to react.

DRAIN OBAMA DRY. I am hearing that the GOP numbers for Sept will eclipse the Obama $181 million announced earlier today.


41 posted on 10/06/2012 5:50:10 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: MarkeyD

Yes, it’s where Cheney said “bigtime” which has become one of my favorite words when talking “politics”.


42 posted on 10/06/2012 5:51:13 PM PDT by flaglady47 (When the gov't fears the people, liberty; When the people fear the gov't, tyranny.)
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To: tanknetter

Obama should not be wasting money on ads in Chicago. That is very significant intel.


43 posted on 10/06/2012 5:53:51 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: justiceseeker93

My Jewish friends in Wisconsin who voted for Obama in 2008 are supporting Romney this year.


44 posted on 10/06/2012 5:57:08 PM PDT by afraidfortherepublic (Joe Biden is reported to be seeking asylum in a foreign country so he does not have to debate Ryan.)
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To: carriage_hill

That was a different Daley; and this time, Obama fired his son (William), or at least made being Chief of Staff so unpleasant that he quit.


45 posted on 10/06/2012 5:59:25 PM PDT by afraidfortherepublic (Joe Biden is reported to be seeking asylum in a foreign country so he does not have to debate Ryan.)
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To: Holly_P

100% correct! Bet the family farm on it. Too many of the 47% living there.


46 posted on 10/06/2012 6:00:55 PM PDT by Private_Sector_Does_It_Better (I AM ANDREW BREITBART)
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To: tanknetter

Absent some major event, NC is now out of reach for Obama and firming for Romney. Obama has baled on most advertising and the DCCC has yanked money for endangered Blue Dogs (Kissell?) - left to fend for themselves.

The Dems have problems in NC up and down the ballot. The GOP candidate for Gov is crusing to victory (open seat w retirement of brain dead Bev Perdue).


47 posted on 10/06/2012 6:03:16 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: carriage_hill

Very admirable for your hard work and recollections.

In 1968 Nixon refused to release Lake County until Daley reported the entirety of Cook County - wasn’t going to get burned twice.

Understandably in 1968 in the midst of a see-saw election night Pat Nixon refused to believe that her husband carried Illinois. It was only when she was completely assured that the Daley machine could not and would not overtake the GOP votes in Lake County did she cry with relief and happiness.

Julie Nixon Eisenhower has written a magnificient book about her mother.


48 posted on 10/06/2012 6:09:08 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: Holly_P; All
Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.



I sure love hearing about the possibility that Obama just might lose Illinois!! If Obama, Gov.Quinn, and Durbin’s back door deal to bring GITMO terrorists to Thompson Prison gets attention.....who knows!!

The citizens of Illinois should be outraged about this:
Please see here:

http://video.foxnews.com/v/1881402442001/could-new-federal-prison-house-gitmo-detainees/?playlist_id=903226511001

AND FROM TWO YEARS AGO:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUQVUFBQ6NA

AND HERE IS THE FR THREAD:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2941119/posts

49 posted on 10/06/2012 6:10:00 PM PDT by seekthetruth (I want a Commander In Chief who honors and supports our Military!)
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To: dialup_pundit

I also live in DuPage County in Illinois and I have seen MANY Romney signs driving around and one or two Obozo signs. Could this mean something? Maybe.


50 posted on 10/06/2012 6:10:27 PM PDT by teletech (Say NO to RINOS!)
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