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Obama to lose Illinois?
Investors Business Daily ^ | 10/06/2012 | Bruce K.

Posted on 10/06/2012 2:47:45 PM PDT by dialup_pundit

When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.

In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.

That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate vote...

Now comes a new poll from WeAskAmerica that finds Obama with just a 2-point lead over Romney, 47-45, in a suburban Chicago congressional district that Obama won in 2008 by 23 points.

Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/100512-628435-polls-show-obama-could-lose-illinois.htm#ixzz28X8nPjpF

(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Illinois
KEYWORDS: 2012election; 2012polls; bluestate; il2012; illinois
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Right now President Obama is reaping what he sowed. His anti-business policies, his foreign-policy disasters, his campaign of half-truths, and his poor debate performance have brought the state of Illinois into play. Of course the Daly Machine probably keeps enough corpses ready to vote, so that winning Illinois is a fairy tale. But, what a dream that may be coming. Al Gore lost Tennessee and the White House.
1 posted on 10/06/2012 2:47:49 PM PDT by dialup_pundit
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To: dialup_pundit

Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.


2 posted on 10/06/2012 2:50:08 PM PDT by Holly_P
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To: dialup_pundit

Slowly the poll misleading strategy of Dems is fading.

What are the rules of Obama keeping his campaign money? Didn’t Buchanan do this? Be a nice Hawaii house.


3 posted on 10/06/2012 2:50:26 PM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: dialup_pundit
Chicago has more per household debt than any other large city.

More shooting murders.

Unemployment catastrophically high.

Teacher Union marxism displyed only recently.

Now a wholesome mid-westerner is running the Repub ticket as VP, showing that the mid-west can be different.

Chicago may finally be tiring of their decades-long tribulations.

4 posted on 10/06/2012 2:51:21 PM PDT by what's up
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To: dialup_pundit

He’s going to lose California, from where I sit!


5 posted on 10/06/2012 2:56:54 PM PDT by big bad easter bunny (If it weren't for coffee I would still be living with my parents!)
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To: big bad easter bunny

“He’s going to lose California, from where I sit!”

Granted, I am in Orange County, California but I have seen many more Mitt signs than Obama signs including cars.


6 posted on 10/06/2012 3:07:15 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: Holly_P
Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.

Likely? Yes. Done deal? No.

Voter registration in Chicago is down. Voter interest is down as well. Blacks will vote for the O overwhelmingly again, but the numbers likely won't be as large this year as '08. The same for democrats in general. If this holds true and if the GOP does well in collar counties and downstate, it could be an interesting night here in Illinois.

7 posted on 10/06/2012 3:11:08 PM PDT by bcsco (Bourbon gets better with age...I age better with Bourbon.)
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To: dialup_pundit

It would be hilarious if Obama won only HI, MA, and VT.


8 posted on 10/06/2012 3:15:38 PM PDT by Theodore R. (`)
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To: dialup_pundit

While I still think we will be looking a very close election night, it’s numbers like this that make the notion of a Romney landslide seem at least possible. From what I’ve read, the IL-10 is a swing district, with a history of electing moderate-to-liberal Republicans (Mark Kirk, Dord, etc.) to Congress and being close when it comes to Presidential elections (2008 being a notable exception).

If Obama is losing those folks in Illinois, chances are he is losing similar groups in places like Ohio, Wisconsin and other battleground states.


9 posted on 10/06/2012 3:15:57 PM PDT by DemforBush (100% Ex-Democrat.)
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To: dialup_pundit

When and IF Biden endorse Romney-—then all bets are off.


10 posted on 10/06/2012 3:17:55 PM PDT by Mark (Don't argue with my posts. I typed while under sniper fire.)
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To: dialup_pundit; Impy; InterceptPoint; SJackson; oswegodeee; Inyokern; MarkL; expat1000; ...
Now comes a new poll from WeAskAmerica that finds Obama with just a 2-point lead over Romney, 47-45, in a suburban Chicago congressional district that Obama won in 2008 by 23 points.

Illinois' 10th Congressional District, which includes parts of Cook County, is an affluent district chock full of the same independent voters that will decide the presidential contest nationally. In 2008, Obama won 61% of the vote there. Al Gore and John Kerry comfortably carried the district in 200 and 2004 respectively.

"For Mr. Obama to be in a statistical tie in an area that he won by around 20 points in 2008 truly reveals the failure of his presidency," said Illinois-based political consultant Paul Miller. "The economy is undoubtedly the key factor, but in suburbs with a large Jewish population, his treatment of Israel is also taking its toll."

The Republican Jewish Coalition, which is the major organization working the Jewish community for Romney, has been targeting Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Illinois has been one of the states with significant Jewish populations which is being essentially ignored as a hopeless cause. Smart or foolish?

One other point: Hard to get a handle on the accuracy of these numbers by congressional district because the districts are all redrawn.

11 posted on 10/06/2012 3:21:08 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: dialup_pundit

OTOH Mitt is going to lose his state so I’m not sure how this affects the chances of either candidate.


12 posted on 10/06/2012 3:24:34 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: Holly_P; dialup_pundit

I worked for Nixon-Lodge Campaign in 1959-60, and until all the dead/illegal/bussed-in Cook Cty votes were counted for JFK, we were comfortably ahead in Illinois. Somehow, Mayor Daley always managed to come-up with just enough votes to win every election for decades. Not much has changed. “The Machine” there, is quite corrupt, criminal and formidable.


13 posted on 10/06/2012 3:31:11 PM PDT by carriage_hill (Libs, dems, unions, leftist scum & murderous muzzies - are like bacteria: attack, attack, attack!)
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To: Holly_P
Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.

This smells bad to me, like a head-fake designed to pressure Romney and the RNC to spend money in Illinois rather than elsewhere.

Two historic precedents for this sort of thing. First the Bush/Cheney 2000 campaign leaking bogus polling info about Al Gore's support collapsing in CA (followed by a sudden trip by candidate Bush to the state) to draw attention away from what was happening in West Virginia and Tennessee.

Second, Ben Bradlee's infamous "in kind contribution" to the Mondale Campaign in 1984 with a bogus WashingtonPost poll showing Reagan's support in CA collapsing as well. The Reagan/Bush Campaign had to funnel over $1 million extra into CA for another poll and additional outreach ... thus denying Reagan Minnesota and a 50-state sweep.

The focus right now needs to be OH, VA, FL and NC.
14 posted on 10/06/2012 3:32:50 PM PDT by tanknetter
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To: dialup_pundit; All
If the Communist (They are so far out there, I don't even call them Liberal anymore) Media on the National and State levels weren't so in the tank for Zero, I think Romney would be able to pull a Reagan or even better. (All 50 states? Really!)

I believe the harsh reality for this and the last Presidential election season: There are well-funded Communists/Leftists Radicals who have invaded our school systems, our government, and our news agencies. They have shown that they are not above lying, cheating, and intimidating to win and keep power. It will take all our Conservative grassroots organizations combined to fight against them all, and to reeducate current and future generations the meaning of "Liberty."
15 posted on 10/06/2012 3:33:24 PM PDT by hawaiianninja (Palm note to self: Work for a successful 2012! +Throw the liberal garbage out!)
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To: dialup_pundit
I don't think this will happen in Illinois, but let me tell you a story. I live in the Chicago suburbs and the other day I was walking my dog, I only remember seeing one Mitt sign, but then I thought back four years ago to that time of year, at that time the vast majority 60% of the neighborhood was blanketed in Obama signs.

This time I didn't see a single one.

16 posted on 10/06/2012 3:41:05 PM PDT by erod (This Chicagoan will crawl over broken glass to vote the fake Chicagoan Obama out!)
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To: dialup_pundit

If anyone out there has a spare $1 billion they’d like to use to set up a Super PAC, this would be an interesting experiment...however, not really worth it to divert any current resources away from the key battlegrounds for the main campaign orgs. Still...Donald Trump - you out there?


17 posted on 10/06/2012 3:41:05 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Holly_P
Obama will not lose Illinois.....Take it to the bank.

I wouldn't bank on it. I have family in Naperville, which is part of DuPage County just outside Chicago. I visit there about once a year. In 2008, the Obama signs were everywhere and he took the county by a 55-44 margin. (In 2004, Bush won by about the same margin.)

Not this year. My family reports that Romney signs are popping up like weeds and nary an Obama sign is to be found. There are a million people in DuPage Country and Romney is likely to win there by double digits (as Bush/Cheney did in 2004).

I'm not predicting that Romney will win statewide but I'm certainly not ruling it out and we shouldn't write it off.

18 posted on 10/06/2012 3:42:14 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: dialup_pundit

the obamanation cannot lose illinois, “the land of Lincoln”. I can guarantee that every rat and dead pub will rise from the grave and vote that it will never happen.

illinois is the most corrupt state in the union. run by the mafia.

blessings, bobo


19 posted on 10/06/2012 3:47:02 PM PDT by bobo1
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To: SamAdams76

In the least that will help the GOP hold more of the House seats than previously expected due to the redistricting skewed so heavily for the Dems.


20 posted on 10/06/2012 3:47:10 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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