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Election 2012: Wisconsin Tightens Considerably (O49, R47)
Public Policy Polling ^ | 6 October 2012 | PPP

Posted on 10/06/2012 5:25:15 PM PDT by Lexinom

PPP's newest Wisconsin poll finds a big debate bump for Mitt Romney in the state. Two weeks ago he trailed Barack Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.

(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: agitprop; election2012; obama; polls; romney; scottwalker; wisconsin
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To: WOSG

I’m glad to see all these state polls coming out. I was growing worried that our side may become a bit dejected, which would affect volunteer and GOTV efforts. I rather suspected, though, that Romney had been holding back until the debates as those are his strong suit. His strategy, if I’m reading it properly, is to peak at the right time - not too early.


41 posted on 10/06/2012 9:54:25 PM PDT by Lexinom
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To: SteveAustin

A LOT of dems stayed home during the recall. This is the reason that Mike Tate, the head of the Wisconsin Dems, wanted the recall during the Presidential.

Polls still have Baldwin up +4 here in this state as well.


42 posted on 10/06/2012 10:19:21 PM PDT by Thunder90 (Kick Obama out of the White House in 2012.)
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To: Redmen4ever

I just don’t think my home state of NM will go red. Favorite son, Gary Johnson, is running strong here and has the largest audience local radio show host in his corner. Plus, NM keeps getting bluer with all of the Californicators moving here.


43 posted on 10/06/2012 11:02:08 PM PDT by Thickman (Obama - President Ubiquitous (a.k.a. P.U.))
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To: Jet Jaguar

Please add me to the ping list.


44 posted on 10/06/2012 11:13:36 PM PDT by Stonewall Jackson ("I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy.")
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To: Lexinom

Hmmm...

A one point Dem advantage in a Democrat poll ? In 2008 Dems had a 6 point advantage in the exit polls. Seems like an awfully reasonable breakdown, but why ?

Are they setting up Obama for a big bounce after the next debates when they go back to their D+10,11 or 12 model ?


45 posted on 10/06/2012 11:18:00 PM PDT by Bigjimslade
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To: Stonewall Jackson

Added.


46 posted on 10/06/2012 11:26:51 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Bigjimslade

I’ve been thinking that. The pollsters are in a position to control the momentum for the race.


47 posted on 10/06/2012 11:47:41 PM PDT by Lexinom
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To: TribalPrincess2U

I would wait for the internals. They tell the real story.


48 posted on 10/07/2012 1:10:24 AM PDT by UltraV ("Well you've got to hand it to Mitt Romney, because President Obama sure did." @sethmeyers21)
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To: JerseyanExile

MI is next on my list, right after PA. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if MI went red and PA stayed blue, or neither or both. But, I would be surprised, in the absence of a major development, Romney were to lose. Please bear in mind I’m assuming (A) a turnout something between 2004 and 2008, (B) a two-to-one break of the remaining undecideds, and (C) a shift of half of the support currently being won by Johnson to Romney (which mainly affects CO, NM and NV).


49 posted on 10/07/2012 3:51:36 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: SteveAustin

Your point about black voters in WI (and elsewhere) is right on target. Voter participation really jumped in 2008, due mainly to two demographics: (1) blacks and (2) young adults. I am thinking the blacks will be back, although maybe in not as large a number, and that the young adults will return to their former level of voter participation. This is why I think the 2008 model is too optimistic for the Dems (b/c the youth won’t turn-out) and the 2004 model is too optimistic for the Reps (b/c/ the blacks will turn-out).


50 posted on 10/07/2012 3:59:42 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: Lexinom

It is interesting that I live in a nation composed of this strand, but I have to endure it. What I cannot abide is that they make me live in their dysfunctional world.

51 posted on 10/07/2012 4:59:20 AM PDT by SkyPilot
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To: Redmen4ever

“I’m thinking we’re looking good in OH, NV and NH”

Those are going to be some of the toughest swing states.


52 posted on 10/07/2012 6:33:01 AM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: Norman Bates

Of the battleground states, the only one that I think should be moved off the list (moved to leans Romney) is NC. Agreed?

With regard to OH, Rasmussen’s most recent poll shows Romney down 1, 50 to 49, which supports your argument. Also, Romney and the RNC put in a very big buy for ads for this state for this week, relative to the other battleground states, which also supports your argument.

Supporting my argument that Romney is +2 in Ohio is the average of eighteen polls conducted over the past thirty days, re-weighted for a even Republican-Democrat partisan split on election day. My number, +2, hasn’t changed for six weeks.

My reasoning for NH and NV is similar, but based on a +4 GOP advantage in NH, but with fewer polls.

Now, with the exact same reasoning, I have come up with dead heats for VA (+1 Democrat advantage in turnout) and FL (net zero partisan advantage in turnout). This is why I think FL and VA will be tougher for us.

But, I agree with you that OH, NH and NV will be very tough.


53 posted on 10/07/2012 8:02:44 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: rfp1234

that would be great but i wonder if it’s against team rules?


54 posted on 10/07/2012 12:11:11 PM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: M1903A1

True of most rural areas. Unfortunately, most voter do not live in rural areas.


55 posted on 10/07/2012 12:19:40 PM PDT by Henry Hnyellar
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To: BrianE

When the future of the republic is at stake some rules are worth breaking
(e.g. some pastors plan to tell the IRS to pound sand, and endorse their candidate of choice).


56 posted on 10/07/2012 2:32:49 PM PDT by rfp1234
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To: rfp1234

roger that!


57 posted on 10/07/2012 5:28:37 PM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: SteveAustin

Will those same people be voting for Tammy the degenerate or Tom?


58 posted on 10/17/2012 7:45:04 PM PDT by MSF BU (n)
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