Skip to comments.VP Debate Prediction - VANITY (just starting the discussion)
Posted on 10/11/2012 8:00:23 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
I predict that tonights VP debate will go one of two ways... Ryan will probably win the debate on merit, but Biden will go for the likeable grandpa and probably not much will change, with who won the debate being probably a draw in terms of focus groups. OR Ryan will effectively counter Bidens charming attempts and win the merit side, and the likeability factor but not by a huge margin.. so net outcome will likely not be much change.
OR, if Biden comes out nasty and agressive, Ryan will calmly counter and handle himself, pundits will declare Biden the winner not on any merit, but because he was agressive and attacked and they just want raw meat, but if Biden goes this rout he risks overplaying of the hand to be attack dog given Obamas flop will probably provide a furhter bounce for the R/R ticket. Being nasty will excite the leftist pundits but will turn off middle america.
Obama will face the same problem in the next 2 debates, his petty nasty side will likely show through since hes behind the 8 ball and his attempt to recover will likely show how small and petty he is, and further tank him in the polls.
So, end of the night.. at best the Republicans will get a bit more momentum, at worst they will continue with the same momentum they have. I really dont see a calculous where Biden can put the genie back in the bottle. Ryan isnt going to dissintegrate.
I dont know which track the Dems will take tonight, but I suspect, given Obamas horrific performance, and the lefts demands for red meat, that Biden is going to likely play against his strengths and attempt to play attack dog and overplay his hand, rather than play to his strengths which are buffuddled but likeable grandpa. If he does this, pundents will almost certainly fawn over Biden, however this IMHO is not going to help the O/B ticket. It will pander to their hard core base, but will further move the rest of the elctorate against them.
So, worst case, nothing really changes, best case, Rs get another momentum boost.
To quote BadLipReading.com, “IT’S PARTY TIME, CHUMPS!”
Joe can be side-splittingly funny.
I will not be surprised to see Biden “win” this debate. The pundits will give it to him anyway. I’m sure that even all the Fox “experts” will give it to Biden, regardless of the substance of his talking points.
Women think Ryan is hot. That is a big factor, bigger than most people think.
There are other possibilities, Biden somehow wins big and the momentum changes... etc.. but I don’t see any way that’s happening.
Its either a non event overall, or a further boost to the already surging R/R ticket.
Just feed him a bottle or two before the debate. The sit back and enjoy.
In the first 20 minutes, the 47% ‘zinger’ will come out...and the pundits will swoon.
We will hear ‘worst economy since great depression’ early and often.
We will hear alot about zillions of jobs being created by Obama.
Big Bird will be mentioned.
Biden will tell us about Barry’s character and spine of steel...Bin Laden is dead, etc.
Ryan will talk about saving programs, through reform, and state he doesn’t was to eliminate them (will mention his own mother is on some of these programs).
Ryan will largely ignore Biden, and attack Obama’s record.
Both sides will think their guy did pretty well.
Obama’s supporters will suddenly realize that Barry is the ‘weakest link’ on their ticket.
Biden will go out and glibly state falsehood after falsehood, with no consequence whatsoever. Regardless of any merit of what Ryan says, Biden will be hailed as the winner because of his “command” and “presence”.
(Actual) fact checking will show that the only honest thing that Biden says all night is his own name (and 20% chance of him flubbing that), but it won’t matter, because that will all come out after the narrative is set.
Romney/Ryan, the GOP, and affiliated groups need to aggressively fact check live, during the debate, and post it on all social media sources. Ryan’s opening statement should mention Biden’s history of dishonesty, and direct people to follow the debunking as it occurs.
Even if he gaffes, the commentators will say he won because of his blue collar gravitas.........
Ryan isnt an idiot. He will win overall because he is coming in with no perception baggage, and he has a grasp of the issues as well as anyone else in the race.
Biden is known to be a fool even by his own party. If he was so gifted as some wobbly-legged dopes on FR want to pretend then he would not have been slated to be booted off the ticket just a couple of months ago for Hillary.
Biden will come across as a douche cartoon. Ryan will look calm and relateable.
Biden will be on the persistent attack. He will push the envelope. That’s his role and the Obama campaign has nothing to lose if they choose this approach. If Biden goes overboard or says stupid things then no one will be surprised and no harm will be done. Obama has shown over and over that he’s insulated against Biden’s gaffes. Ryan should just be himself, not contradict Romney, and hold the line. We aren’t looking for a win in this one. Just a draw.
Ryan steps out from behind the podium and rips open his shirt to reveal a rippling six-pack abs (ala’ The Situation on Jersey Shore).
The media goes ballistic. The womens vote moves 15 points overnight in Romney/Ryan’s favor.
I can’t see Biden winning big or even just passing the grade. Ryan has all the facts and figures in his head. Biden has been cramming for a week or more. The results will be hilarious if not downright pathetic...........
And the moderator is a woman.
I predict Pittsburg will be Tennessee. That’s where my tube will be idling. I know who I am voting for, I don’t need to watch the debate. Debate’s, we don’t need no stinking debate’s..
Then Biden attempts to do the same thing and his plugs pop out..............
I am not worried about who the press declares the winner, I am sure that it will be Biden or a Draw at best. What I am talking about is the IMPACT of the debate.
If Biden goes out attacking, and I agree this is the most likely case, given how horrible Obama did... Biden is playing against his strengths and while he may win over the pundits who are just desperate for red meat they didn’t see from Obama.. This strategy I suspect will wind up backfiring and will only intensify the momentum the R/R ticket has gotten.
We all know for Ryan to be declared the winner, even slightly he’d have to hit a grand slam bottom of the 9th home run.. and then they’d probably just call it a draw.
I am not worried about what the PUNDITS say, I am predicting the outcome in the context of the larger race.
There are 3 outcomes... Nothing really changes - most likely historically (VP debates rarely shape races)... Momentum pick up for the R/R ticket or Momentum pickup for the O/B ticket.
Raw Meat say anything attack dog biden, if that is what we get, and I suspect it will given how bad Obama did and how much the left is demanding it... I think won’t stem any momentum for the R/R ticket and will likely increase it a bit. Red Meat could bring perhaps some enthusiasm to the lefts core that has been missing, but I think they have pretty much engaged everyone that’s going to for them from there, so this impact would be minimal at best, and will likely turn off more swing and blue dogs than it brings in from the hard left.
We will see how it goes, but we all know that given Obama’s disasterous performance, that if Biden just shows a pulse they’ll rule him the winner regardless of what else happens, so predicting pundit reaction is meaningless... I am talking about the larger context of the election.
And I see just 2 possible options, no real impact, or increased momentum for Romney. I see no calculus where Biden is going to score a knockout to the extent momentum will shift back in their direction.
Election has always been a referendum on Obama, and once Romney showed that he wasn’t a monster or incapabable, something he’s done in person for months, but via the filter of the Obama Campaign and the Press has not been seen, it was over for Obama. This debate will not improve the democratic position, it can only leave them where they are, not good.. or make it worse for them.
I think if you see rabid dog Biden playing up to the hard core base saying anything and everything to attack, its going to make things worse for the democratic ticket. Desperation doesn’t sell.
Better yet, Ryan just comes out in a thong.
You’re probably right, Pittsburgh will beat Tennessee, but I hope not. I don’t have anything against Pittsburgh Steelers, I just intensely dislike Worthlessburger............
Ryan needs to avoid appearing cocky and arrogant. That’ll be his weakness. Biden can play the affable dunce easily enough. I expect Biden to be relentless.
Biden will need to subtly claim that Romney is a liar an phony.
Ryan confounds Biden with numbers and details - comes across as energetic and smart - like a Jr Romney
Biden demagogues with the “millionaires and billionaires” meme.
Ryan details the collapse of the middle class and how to fix it
Biden gets condescending and dismissive
Media declare Biden the winner.
Viewers, only half as many as watched Romney/Zero, narrowly give the nod to Ryan - this debate will be cast as a virtual tie
Just my .02
Right ! Ryan will win...or Biden will win. What was your first clue? Rediculous.
I disagree. Ryan should go for the jugular. Biden is vain and hot headed. It should be easy to get him to lose his composure. The administration is vulnerable on the ME. Not just Libya, but turning the whole region over to Islamist extremists by “leading from behind”. When you have to choose between the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists, your ME policy has failed.
If Biden calls Romney a liar, Ryan should say, “I refuse to have the veracity of a good and decent man questioned by someone who plagiarized papers in law school, and speeches while running for president, and even lied about his family background and college career.” At the end of the debate, only rabid dems should be comfortable with Biden one heartbeat away from the presidency.
Biden will be dismissive and condescending toward Ryan. Ryan won’t take the bait for low-brow insults and will stick to the facts. I do expect him to confront Biden and then move along. It will be very interesting. I really hope Biden shows his true self but I think in this setting alone he will be disciplined. But I would love it if he gave a string of really good Bidenisms!
Wow, glad you can read an entire post.
It has nothing to do with who will be declared the winner, that was not what the post was about, but the impact it would have on the race, and that’s not simply, Biden Wins, or Ryan Wins.
Winning or Losing the Debate has outcomes associated with it as well... Can be declared a winner, and end up negatively impacting your ticket depending on how you got there, can “lose” the debate and wind up positively impacting your ticket.
If you want to respond, feel free, but read the entire post, as your attempted wit is sadly lacking.
I 'spect the SNL writers will be working furiously tomorrow to get Joe's Thursday debate gaffes written up into skits.
Basically, Joe B. is the R&D department for SNL.
>>We arent looking for a win in this one. Just a draw.<<
I couldn’t disagree more. A big win in this one could easily lock up the race.
And it would be a huge win if, somehow, Ryan can overcome the impression created by a combination of Democrat claims and media complicity that Ryan, and since the debate Romney too, are flat out liars. This won’t be easily accomplished, I suspect, but if it is accomplished you’ll see the Independents and some wavering Democrats change their assessment of the GOP ticket dramatically.
Ryan was viewed as dangerous by Obama because he’s too well informed to ignore, so they immediately set about tagging him with the “liar” label. This has worked to a large degree, and is even brushing off on Romney since he won the debate. (He won it by lying, is their story now.)
One way to accomplish the objective of losing the liar label is to not hang out any unverifiable projections during the debate, but stick to clearly verifiable facts. Don’t say “the deficit has exploded under President Obama.” Instead say “the deficit has been over $1 trillion dollars each year since Obama took office” and compare it to past deficits and bring in Obama’s 2008 campaign promise to reduce it.
The other side of the coin is to call Biden out on any and all misstatements of fact. If Biden says the House has been unwilling to work with Obama and the Dems on a budget, point out the facts: The GOP has put forth budgets that Obama has ignored, and his own budgets have received zero votes from even Democrats in the Senate.
After catching Biden in 3 or 4 misstatements of fact (ones that can easily be verified, and Ryan is well equipped to recognize those) hit him with the accusation that it’s the Democrats and Obama/Biden who seem to have trouble misrepresenting facts, not Romney or Ryan himself. If he could pull off something like this he would destroy weeks of Dem efforts to demonize both him and Romney as outright liars, and people in the middle would start actually paying attention to what he’s saying on policy.
As an aside, I’d love to have Ryan ask Biden how many zeros follow the number one in one trillion, and/or how many millions (or billions) there are in a trillion, giving him 10 seconds of his time to answer. If he knows, just say “just checking” and leave it at that. But if he blows either answer, let fly with “well, at least now I understand part of the budgeting problem,” and elaborate from there. (Personally, I doubt he knows the answer to either question, and I’m reasonably sure 80-90% of the voters don’t.)
Summing up: Ryan should stick to verifiable facts, saying nothing that could be construed as a lie, or even misconstrued as a lie, and should call Biden on every whopper he tells, and he’s bound to tell at least a few, as that’s his nature. If, by the end, we’re all hoping Ryan hits him with the classic “there you go again,” he’ll have accomplished what I’d like him to accomplish tonight.
I like the CNN article about Ryan’s prep. He seems to be taking this extremely seriously and knows what he must do to win.
Still, after things going so well last week, I am almost nervous to tune in tonight. Might wait a few minutes after checking responses here before watching.
Can’t imagine it going as well this time as the utter demolition of last week.
The MSM works hand in glove with democrats. I wonder if Biden was given a copy of the questions? Anyone know?
Biden pulled in the mob and union goons for his first election. Biden’s a machine type manipulative jerk. His 'sweet bumbling old man' routine is about as real as Arab protesters killing our citizens because of a movie. Pure lies.
Biden knows the truth about Benghazi - maybe Ryan can get him to share that truth.
The world's falling apart - I do NOT want to find out that most of the debate was spent on abortion. But if the subject does come up I'd like to know why most abortion clinics are in or next to black neighborhoods. Also, some information about the philosophy of the founder of planned parenthood might be interesting..
“I predict Biden will try too hard to rescue Obama and will step over the line. Ryan will project calm professionalism and factual knowledge and will be the clear winner.”
I predict that you will be found to be spot on.
Well, I kinda predict that Biden will show up wearing a Big Bird costume.
That’s for sure! My oldest daughter (35)came through the living room when we were watching P. Ryan speak at the convention. She stopped to watch for a few minutes, laughed and said something like: “I hope he wins-he’s cute!”! I don’t know if she knew (she’s not particularly political)he was the R. Pres. candidate, or the V.Pres. candidate, but she was intrigued! She said he was really cute or hot, or something, and as I said, she hoped he’d/Romney won when I told her he was the V.P. candidate later!
I’d say my #11 was pretty close to spot-on.