Skip to comments.VP Debate Prediction - VANITY (just starting the discussion)
Posted on 10/11/2012 8:00:23 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
I predict that tonights VP debate will go one of two ways... Ryan will probably win the debate on merit, but Biden will go for the likeable grandpa and probably not much will change, with who won the debate being probably a draw in terms of focus groups. OR Ryan will effectively counter Bidens charming attempts and win the merit side, and the likeability factor but not by a huge margin.. so net outcome will likely not be much change.
OR, if Biden comes out nasty and agressive, Ryan will calmly counter and handle himself, pundits will declare Biden the winner not on any merit, but because he was agressive and attacked and they just want raw meat, but if Biden goes this rout he risks overplaying of the hand to be attack dog given Obamas flop will probably provide a furhter bounce for the R/R ticket. Being nasty will excite the leftist pundits but will turn off middle america.
Obama will face the same problem in the next 2 debates, his petty nasty side will likely show through since hes behind the 8 ball and his attempt to recover will likely show how small and petty he is, and further tank him in the polls.
So, end of the night.. at best the Republicans will get a bit more momentum, at worst they will continue with the same momentum they have. I really dont see a calculous where Biden can put the genie back in the bottle. Ryan isnt going to dissintegrate.
I dont know which track the Dems will take tonight, but I suspect, given Obamas horrific performance, and the lefts demands for red meat, that Biden is going to likely play against his strengths and attempt to play attack dog and overplay his hand, rather than play to his strengths which are buffuddled but likeable grandpa. If he does this, pundents will almost certainly fawn over Biden, however this IMHO is not going to help the O/B ticket. It will pander to their hard core base, but will further move the rest of the elctorate against them.
So, worst case, nothing really changes, best case, Rs get another momentum boost.
To quote BadLipReading.com, “IT’S PARTY TIME, CHUMPS!”
Joe can be side-splittingly funny.
I will not be surprised to see Biden “win” this debate. The pundits will give it to him anyway. I’m sure that even all the Fox “experts” will give it to Biden, regardless of the substance of his talking points.
Women think Ryan is hot. That is a big factor, bigger than most people think.
There are other possibilities, Biden somehow wins big and the momentum changes... etc.. but I don’t see any way that’s happening.
Its either a non event overall, or a further boost to the already surging R/R ticket.
Just feed him a bottle or two before the debate. The sit back and enjoy.
In the first 20 minutes, the 47% ‘zinger’ will come out...and the pundits will swoon.
We will hear ‘worst economy since great depression’ early and often.
We will hear alot about zillions of jobs being created by Obama.
Big Bird will be mentioned.
Biden will tell us about Barry’s character and spine of steel...Bin Laden is dead, etc.
Ryan will talk about saving programs, through reform, and state he doesn’t was to eliminate them (will mention his own mother is on some of these programs).
Ryan will largely ignore Biden, and attack Obama’s record.
Both sides will think their guy did pretty well.
Obama’s supporters will suddenly realize that Barry is the ‘weakest link’ on their ticket.
Biden will go out and glibly state falsehood after falsehood, with no consequence whatsoever. Regardless of any merit of what Ryan says, Biden will be hailed as the winner because of his “command” and “presence”.
(Actual) fact checking will show that the only honest thing that Biden says all night is his own name (and 20% chance of him flubbing that), but it won’t matter, because that will all come out after the narrative is set.
Romney/Ryan, the GOP, and affiliated groups need to aggressively fact check live, during the debate, and post it on all social media sources. Ryan’s opening statement should mention Biden’s history of dishonesty, and direct people to follow the debunking as it occurs.
Even if he gaffes, the commentators will say he won because of his blue collar gravitas.........
Ryan isnt an idiot. He will win overall because he is coming in with no perception baggage, and he has a grasp of the issues as well as anyone else in the race.
Biden is known to be a fool even by his own party. If he was so gifted as some wobbly-legged dopes on FR want to pretend then he would not have been slated to be booted off the ticket just a couple of months ago for Hillary.
Biden will come across as a douche cartoon. Ryan will look calm and relateable.
Biden will be on the persistent attack. He will push the envelope. That’s his role and the Obama campaign has nothing to lose if they choose this approach. If Biden goes overboard or says stupid things then no one will be surprised and no harm will be done. Obama has shown over and over that he’s insulated against Biden’s gaffes. Ryan should just be himself, not contradict Romney, and hold the line. We aren’t looking for a win in this one. Just a draw.
Ryan steps out from behind the podium and rips open his shirt to reveal a rippling six-pack abs (ala’ The Situation on Jersey Shore).
The media goes ballistic. The womens vote moves 15 points overnight in Romney/Ryan’s favor.
I can’t see Biden winning big or even just passing the grade. Ryan has all the facts and figures in his head. Biden has been cramming for a week or more. The results will be hilarious if not downright pathetic...........
And the moderator is a woman.
I predict Pittsburg will be Tennessee. That’s where my tube will be idling. I know who I am voting for, I don’t need to watch the debate. Debate’s, we don’t need no stinking debate’s..