Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 13, 2012 (Senate Slipping Away)

Rasmussen Reports Data ^ | 10/13/12 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

You're right. The chart isn't matching the narrative. I didn't copy the table headings properly.

Here's the corrected chart.

Obama - 253								Romney - 245
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	7	Connecticut	6	Iowa	9	Colorado	10	Missouri	29	Florida	9	Alabama
3	District of Columbia	16	Michigan	10	Wisconsin	4	New Hampshire	15	North Carolina	16	Georgia	3	Alaska
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania			18	Ohio	13	Virginia			11	Arizona
4	Hawaii					6	Nevada					6	Arkansas
20	Illinois											4	Idaho
4	Maine											11	Indiana
10	Maryland											6	Kansas
11	Massachusetts											8	Kentucky
10	Minnesota											8	Louisiana
14	New Jersey											6	Mississippi
5	New Mexico											3	Montana
29	New York											5	Nebraska
7	Oregon											3	North Dakota
4	Rhode Island											7	Oklahoma
3	Vermont											9	South Carolina
12	Washington											3	South Dakota
												11	Tennessee
												38	Texas
												6	Utah
												5	West Virginia
												3	Wyoming
194		43		16		37		38		45		162

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Organize. Craft a national strategy based on a message that supports Romney.

I don't think anyone is playing from a coordinated plan.

-PJ

[TMA62]

I think the last 10 days have been seismic given the performance of the debates. The momentum is with Romney and there is a growing likelihood that he will win big in November. There is a growing likelihood that he will have coat tails too. I think many of these seats are in play and the dems are very nervous. If Romney wins big in November, there will be dem casualties in the Senate.

[SMGFan]

And what about Senate races Montana & North Dakota?

[SatinDoll]

“I wish I saw more team-building from Romney,..”

Romney isn’t politically savvy. You will not see it now, nor in the future.

For example, he should have reached out to Sarah Palin, and did not. That was a really dumb, f..k, stupid mistake! He did everything possible to exclude her from the Tampa Convention. That screams “political ineptitude’.

His team is rotten when it comes to basic potlical moves, too. They should have been all over McConnell to get with the program vis a vis the Senate. Sheesh!

Let this be a heads up to what we can expect from a Romney White House in the next four-years.

[Leto]

Ras is using a +3-5 turnout model currently isn’t he?

If so his numbers are tilted to the dems.

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races ranked roughly from the most to least likely GOP win. The rankings haven't changed much as the election season has progressed. I have not listed states in which the outcome is Safe D or Safe R.

MO was a big blow as that was a sure thing, but we will hopefully still get that one. Several candidates are not performing as well as expected, like Rick Berg, Tommy Thompson, George Allen, and Connie Mack. Romney may have to drag them over the finish line. But some are doing better than expected, like Linda McMahon, Josh Mandel, and Tom Smith. To his credit, Scott Brown is in good shape to beat Fauxahontas.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus is the Senate.

 

10/13/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold OR Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
AZ*	Jeff Flake	Richard Carmona	HOLD
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
WI*	Tommy Thompson	Tammy Baldwin	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Connie Mack	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
MO	Todd Akin	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
MI	Pete Hoekstra	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
CT*	Linda McMahon	Chris Murphy	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
HI*	Linda Lingle	Mazie Hirono	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
WA	Michael Baumgartner	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
*Open Seat          +Incumbent

 

[dforest]

I doubt there will be a whole lot of ballot splitting in this race this year. The Senate will most likely go to whoever wins the President.

[newheart]

I doubt there will be a whole lot of ballot splitting in this race this year. The Senate will most likely go to whoever wins the President.

I think you may be right, but I wouldn't bet the future of the country on that assumption.

I think it would be interesting to discover how many voters split their ballot just as a matter of principle, in the interest of maintaining either a viable checks and balances condition, or just hoping for gridlock.

[nwrep]

The momentum is with Romney and there is a growing likelihood that he will win big in November.

With all due respect, while I completely agree that the momentum is with Romney, I see zero evidence that he is going to win big.

There is foolish talk of a LANDSLIDE (sic) on this board, without anything but hope to back it up. There are no polls that show Romney cruising towards a landslide, just polls that show him pulling ahead slightly in some key states, while still running neck and neck in others.

The national popular vote also does not support the landslide meme.

I am afraid if we keep talking of a landslide, we may be in for a huge disappointment next month...

[taildragger]

Romney really has to expand his campaign to include rallying with state candidates. He needs to show his coattails and demonstrate that he's a team builder. As Romney campaigns in swing states, it's time for him to support the Senate slate with a message of building a team for the future. Romney has to convince voters that it's not enough to replace Obama, but that Romney needs a team in Congress, too, to work with him on putting America back on the right track. -PJ

Romney just doesn't need the Senate, he needs 60. If we still have Reid, the Romney Administration will go no where fast, and we get our @$$es kicked in 14' setting up a cycle for Hilda' in 2016.

Yes he needs to be on the stump with these people and do Commericals. I am sorry I am so frustrated here in Michigan, he is gonna have to drag Hoekstra's behind across the finish line and that drives me nuts....

[butterdezillion]

What polling is this based upon - the polls with dems over-sampled, or not?

R’s will gain Ben Nelson’s seat.

[butterdezillion]

Right now gridlock would hurt us. To get any semblance of our country back we’ve got to UNDO the past 4 years. Gridlock at this point means that Obama’s “fundamental change” stays in place.

I hope people are being smart and thinking about what really needs to happen to get Constitutional rule again. When we had gridlock in Congress, we just had Obama go OVER both Congress and the judiciary. To set things right and prevent that from happening again we need to address how it could happen in the first place - and that will require a strong majority.

[AEMILIUS PAULUS]

Thanks for the information.

Is the Republican party effectively dead? In my state of California it has totally lost all elected offices-with the exception of a few state senators and assemblymen. The loss is strictly occasioned by a coalition Latins, Asiatics, blacks, Gays, and non-christians. They are all united in their hatred contempt for the former WASP leadership.

[AEMILIUS PAULUS]

Thanks for the information.

Is the Republican party effectively dead? In my state of California it has totally lost all elected offices-with the exception of a few state senators and assemblymen. The loss is strictly occasioned by a coalition Latins, Asiatics, blacks, Gays, and non-christians. They are all united in their hatred and contempt for the former WASP leadership.

[newheart]

To set things right and prevent that from happening again we need to address how it could happen in the first place - and that will require a strong majority.

I couldn't agree more. I have argued from the beginning that keeping the House and winning the Senate are way more important than winning the White House. It is the only way to begin to put the executive branch in check.

[Political Junkie Too]

North Dakota (Berg) is polling at 49%-40% from mid-July. Nothing recent from Rasmussen. This poll is outside the margin of error for Berg.

Montana (Rehberg) is polling at 47%-43% from late August.

I didn't call these states out because they aren't gains that flipped to losses.

-PJ

[JPG]

In a worst case in the senate, there is also the possibility that Obamacare will prove to be so unworkable, and the populace so pissed about it, that it will be tweaked to the point that it won't be anything close to being Obamacare at all.

[Carry_Okie]

The problem with that idea is that the “it” being tweaked still entails a Federal bureaucracy exercising unconstitutional powers... with all due deference to the Justice Roberts’ august opinion of course (IOW, none).

[JPG]

I still hold out some hope. The Carter ‘luxury tax’ that ended up punishing yacht builders and the rats medicare increases that almost got Rostenkowski ambushed come to mind. They both were reversed by the congress pronto.