Posted on 10/13/2012 9:02:04 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too
Jeff Flake has run a crappy campaign. And the AZGOP new almost two years ago that Carmona was going to be a tough candidate.
Very informative (if a little depressing) post!
I’m still pretty hopeful Scott Brown will pull it out over Warren in Mass. It’s going to be close, but I think he’ll close the deal.
Connecticut is disappointing. I think pretty highly of Linda McMahon, and Murphy is just a doofus. I get why she lost in 2010 to Blumenthal - first timer running against a broadly popular state figure. But I really thought she would own things this time around.
As for Missouri...I’m sure to get another round of angry replies and some um, “interesting” FReepmail for saying this, but I blame Akin more than the GOP-E for this mess. I would agree that at this point it’s probably in the GOP’s best interest to support Akin financially, simply because of the stakes (i.e. control of the Senate). He’s damaged goods, but he’s still the only chance to beat McCaskill, and a win is a win.
At the same time, the GOP would not be in this mess had Akin done the right thing and stepped down after his incredibly stupid comments. They destroyed his advantage and his campaign still not completely recovered from them. It’s not fair, but very little in politics is, and sometimes you do what you have to for the good of the cause. There were plenty of solidly conservative alternate choices without baggage, and I don’t buy the “I’m staying in out of principle” narrative he puts forth. Not for one second. I see it as a lot more about a Murkowski-esque sense of entitlement than anything to do with conservative principles.
I can’t even watch this. We’re going to have to hope that Romney brings in the Senate. This is all we need, with Reid blocking everything up again, and then having the balls to call the Republicans obstructionists. I can’t even watch.
It's too bad that Romney didn't (that we know of) back-channel a deal with Akin to drop out in place of getting an administration post later. That's the kind of executive team-building I'd expect from a CEO that's trying to close a deal.
I wish I saw more team-building from Romney, now that he's riding a wave of success from his first debate.
-PJ
Hi Hildy. I think we’re going to lose this seat. Flake blew it.
-PJ
I don't know who you are getting your polling data from, and it really doesn't matter because, this year, all of them are bogus. Repeat. All. Of. Them. Are. Bogus. These numbers are cooked as bad as unemployment numbers. Why you ask? Because they were told to. By guys with keys to jail cells. It's the Chicago Way and that's something that most of us have never seen before, so we are unsure how to react.
I see crowd sizes in Virginia of four and five figures for Romney on a Friday morning for crying out loud. Everywhere. Obama pulls those numbers for weekend rally's in Northern Virginia only. Yet the polls tell us that Obama is tied or winning. I smell a rat. I also remember a similar situation in 1980. I expect a similar result this time.
-PJ
Cool. Rasmussen is a reputable firm and just like everyone else, are using a 2008 model for turnout. Take all your figures and add 4 point to the R side and subtract 3 for the D side and tell me what you get.
What is being assumed is a 2008 turnout and it is going to be a massive GOP turnout this time.
Pass this list on to everyone you know...these folks need our support and WE AND ROMNEY NEED THEM. Romney also has to get the message that he needs to send support/funds to these candidates NOW. Mark Levin has been championing this drive to support these candidates, and I would hope he contacts Sen. Jim DeMint that Romnney needs to send financial help to these candidates.....time to email Jim DeMint.
That would definitely improve Romney's numbers, but I'm not sure what it would do to the Senate as a whole.
I'll have to check and report back.
-PJ
In the Senate, the GOP expected count is 51 seats, and a 74% chance of winning control. That's a slim majority, even with bias corrected.
-PJ
What does this mean - you have yet to see or hear a word from them?
My take on the senate is mostly about bad luck, tea party challenges and late primaries combining for a disappointing election.
CT is a deep blue state and Linda McMahon was always a long shot.
FL had a late contested August primary that left Nelson with 10 million cash on hand vs. Mack with 1 million cash on hand.
ME had Snowe retiring in a deep blue state.
MA would always be a difficult hold in a deep blue state.
MO should have been a pick up but Akin came along.
NV should be an easy hold but with Harry Reid lurking, you never know for sure until the ballots are counted.
In OH, Sherrod Brown was always ahead or tied and never behind. OH is a swing state and Brown is a well financed incumbent with no character or ethical problems. His only weakness is his too liberal voting record. This race was always considered an “icing on the cake” pick up and never the cake.
VA is about two well financed former governors going after each other in a swing state. This has been a 50-50 state for a year.
Wisconsin is a deep blue state with a really late Aug. primary. Our candidate is better and we will pick this seat up but it will be close.
Picking up the Senate was about winning MT, ND, MO, and NB while holding IN with Lugar, ME with Snowe, NV with Heller and MA with Brown. Other pickup chances were VA, FL and OH.
Now we are in trouble because of Akin, Snowe, and Lugar. We can still win VA and OH and MA. And Tommy Thompson adds WI as a chance.
So I see our chances little changed from earlier in the year except for Snowe, Akin and Lugar but we gain with Thompson.
Bottomline: We pick up 4 (MT,ND,NB,WI). We lose 1 (ME). We might lose 3 more (MA, NV, IN) but will probably hold 2 of 3. We might pick up 5 more (VA,OH,MO,PA,CT) but will probably get only 1 of these 5. Net pickup is 3 which gets us to 50-50.
Well duh. This is the only way Romney gets to say he wants to repeal ObamaCare without having to deliver on that promise.
Flake had a contested August primary and has no money.
Carmona did not have a primary challenge.
Your numbers are wrong. According to the chart you posted, Obama should have 253 instead of 260, and Romney should have 245 instead of 238. The difference between them then is only 8 instead of 22, which is much more positive for us.
That is concerning. I suppose some people moving to Romney will split the ticket with a Democrat for Senate. Too bad!
What could McConnell and Co. have done differently in August?
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