Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 13, 2012 (Senate Slipping Away)

Rasmussen Reports Data ^ | 10/13/12 | Political Junkie Too

[Carry_Okie]

They both were reversed by the congress pronto.

The problem is the Senate. Even with a nominal Republican majority, it will still be a RINO-Crat majority. It will take one massive education of the public to get much farther any time within a Romney first term. Until then, Harry Reid will hold sway until we can put his thug crooked feet to the fire for his very profitable machinations.

[Irish Eyes]

I don’t know what the hell Jeff Flake is thinking but he might want to get out of the McCain “I got it in the bag” mode. Republicans are going to lose Kyl’s seat. That lying Obama turd Carmona is flooding the airwaves with with some pretty brutal ads. Yo Jeff! Time to wake up pal!

I agree Flake needs to make a strong finish. Some of the ads have my husband now in the undecided category. Not for Carmona but Libertarian. By the way husband is a Conservative.

[Impy]

"Can Massachusetts' former Governor Romney push Scott Brown back into the lead in his own state?"

Brown is gonna run far ahead of Romney.

I'm a little worried but not panicked with this Senate picture.

Dems seem to think they'll lose only NE and gain ME (with King) MA, NV, IN, and maybe AZ. And they have the polling to back it up.

That's about as likely as GOP getting 60.

Rasmussen has some questionable results lately.

Turnout is the key here cause all these polls are weighted according to turnout models.

[Political Junkie Too]

I've been thinking about the Senate results since posting this. Another alternative is that Rasmussen changed his poll mix for the Presidential race, and it's showing up as a huge drop for Republicans in the Senate races.

I'll have to check out the internals to see if the Democrat sample mix grew to show Obama doing better, but resulting in Republicans looking worse in the Senate.

-PJ

[Impy]

I heard Ras used better models (a mix of 04 and 08 turnout) than other firms so I’m surprised. Especially with Wisconsin.