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Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 13, 2012 (Senate Slipping Away)
Rasmussen Reports Data ^ | 10/13/12 | Political Junkie Too

Posted on 10/13/2012 9:02:04 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too

Previous Editions:

August 11, 2012
August 4, 2012
July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

This Edition's Updates:

This time, we'll start in the Senate.

The Republican GOP Senate campaign has totally collapsed. Republicans were looking at a near certainty to take control of the Senate, and they are now back to just keeping their current number of seats plus one. This is shameful. Where is the Senate leadership on this? Where are McConnell and DeMint?

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

As of now, the Senate looks to be a 52-48 Democrat hold, with a probability of 8.4% for Republicans taking over.

Since the last report, we had the two party conventions and the first round of candidate debates. And the Akin incident in Missouri. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republican leadership response to Todd Akin's rape comment led to the drop in support for all the GOP senator candidates. McConnell and DeMint better be very visible in the remaining weeks building back the GOP takeover of the Senate.

It's also time for Mitt Romney to roll out his coattails and start rallying for the Senate candidates that he needs to build a united Congress to work with. Without controlling the Senate, Romney will have a very hard time delivering on the promises he made, especially to repeal Obamacare.

See the probability chart at the following link to see how bad it has gotten. Link to Senate Probability Chart

Here is a run-down of what happened.

In Connecticut, a late August poll had Republican Linda McMahon leading Democrat Chris Murphy by +3% or 49%-46%. Now, Murphy is leading by 51%-46%, an 8-point GOP drop.

In Florida, a mid-August poll showed Republican Mack had already lost his July lead over Democrat Nelson, and was down by 7%. This week's poll shows that gap growing even more, with Nelson leading 52%-41%, an 11% lead. Is Florida a lost opportunity, or can Romeny help pull Mack back in front?

In Maine, the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Olympia Snowe is flipping to Democrats. Snowe last won the seat by 74%-20%. Republican candidate Charlie Summers is trailing Independent candidate Angus King by 45%-33%. The Democrat candidate Cynthia Dill has 14%. The discussion now is which party with King caucus with? He will probably side with Democrats when all is said and done.

In Massachusetts, Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren were tied at 48% in a late September poll, matching the 45% tie from a May poll. Now, Warren gained 1% while Brown lost 1%, giving Warren a 49%-47% lead. Can Massachusetts' former Governor Romney push Scott Brown back into the lead in his own state?

In Missouri, Lame Duck Democrat CLaire McCaskill is being handed back her Senate seat by weak, thin-skinned Republican leadership who failed to support fellow Republican Todd Akin, despite being caught in a gotcha interview. Republicans were leading 49%-43% in early Agust when Akin blundered in an interview and leadership fled for the hills. A late-August poll showed McCaskill back in the lead 48%-38%, a 16% swing. A mid-September poll showed some Akin rebound, closing the spread to McCaskill to 49%-43%. An early October poll has each candidate equally gaining 2%, keeping it a -6% spread at 51%-45% for McCaskill. At this point, Romney is keeping his distance although some Senate leadership is quietly supporting Akin.

In Nevada, a late July poll showed Republican Dean Heller leading Democrat Shelley Berkley by 51%-42%. Berkley had gained 2% from a May poll, while Heller remained at 51%. A late September poll had Heller falling 9% while Berkley held constant, closing the race to 42%-41% for Republicans. A new poll this week has Heller widening the gap as both candidates increase, making it 48%-45%, a +3% lead for Heller. Overall, Republicans lost 6% in this race over the summer, barely holding on.

In Ohio, the state had appeared to be moving towards Republicans. Josh Mandel gained 2% from the July poll, while incumbent Sherrod Brown lost 2%, making this race a 44% toss-up. However, by mid-September the lead evaporated and Brown gained from an 8% swing, making the race 49%-41% for Democrats. Mandel has regained his losses, closing the race to a -1% trail, or 47%-46% for Democrats.

In Virginia, an early August poll showed Republican Allen had picked up 1% from a July poll, while Democrat Kaine remained unchanged over three polls. The race was tied at 46%. Two weeks later, a re-poll in mid-August showed the raced still tied at 45% apiece, a -1% drop for each candidate. A late September poll showed Kaine beginning to pull away with a +2% gain of 47%-45%. Two weeks later, an early October poll showed a Kaine surge of an additional 5%, making it a solid 52%-45% for Democrats. One week later, the current poll shows the Kaine bump disappearing, bringing the race back to 47%-45% for Kaine. Allen remains stuck at 45%. Can Romney pull Allen ahead in the final weeks as he campaigns in Virginia?

In Wisconsin, the polls have been swinging back and forth. Republican Thompson went from 52% in June to 41% in early August and back to 54% in mid-August, while Democrat Baldwin went from 36% to 48% and down to 43%. A late July poll had Baldwin inching ahead again to 49%-46%, and the latest poll has her pulling away at 51%-47%. What is happening in this GOP revolution state? Romney needs to convince Wisconsin voters that he needs Thompson in the Senate in order to carry out his program as President.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Senate
Seats
P10
GOP
Senate
Seats
EV
GOP
Senate
Seats
P90
Probability
of 51
GOP
Gain
2010 Election 47 47 47 0.00% 0
12-May-12 50 51.24 52 77.01% 4
19-May-12 50 51.24 52 77.01% 4
26-May-12 49 50.75 52 58.53% 3
02-Jun-12 49 50.63 52 54.34% 3
09-Jun-12 49 50.37 52 44.50% 3
16-Jun-12 49 50.37 52 44.50% 3
23-Jun-12 49 50.05 52 34.52% 3
30-Jun-12 49 50.05 52 34.52% 3
07-Jul-12 49 50.05 52 34.52% 3
14-Jul-12 51 52.04 54 91.10% 5
21-Jul-12 51 52.19 54 92.42% 5
28-Jul-12 51 52.17 54 92.18% 5
04-Aug-12 50 51.33 53 75.39% 4
11-Aug-12 50 51.43 53 78.01% 4
18-Aug-12 50 51.76 53 84.33% 4
25-Aug-12 51 52.59 54 95.05% 5
01-Sep-12 50 51.64 53 82.53% 4
08-Sep-12 50 51.64 53 82.46% 4
15-Sep-12 50 51.19 53 73.42% 4
22-Sep-12 48 49.83 51 30.40% 2
29-Sep-12 47 48.79 50 9.26% 1
06-Oct-12 47 48.49 50 4.63% 1
13-Oct-12 47 48.74 50 8.42% 1

Link to Senate Probability Chart

The Race for the White House

Since the last report, Obama's Electoral College count has gone down to 253 Electoral Votes to Romney's growth to 245, with 37 EV up for grabs. If the election were held today, the race would be leaning to Obama. Probabilistically, Romney has a 28% chance of winning today.

In Colorado, the race was tied at 47% in Mid-August. A late-September poll showed Romney holding steady and Obama losing 2%. This week's poll has Romney gaining 2% and Obama gaining 3%, making the race a 49%-48% lead for Romney. Colorado remains a Toss-up.

In Connecticut, polling has finally taken place. A late-August poll has Obama leading Romney by 51%-43%. A poll this week has Romney gaining 2% and Obama holding at 51%. Connecticut is a Strong Obama state.

In Florida, Romney increased on his +2% lead, gaining another +2% in the most recent poll. Romney's 51%-47% lead moves Florida from Leans to Strong for Romney.

In Iowa, Romney lost his lead. He fell from a peak of 47%-44% in September to now running 49%-47% behind Obama. Iowa moves from Leans Romney to Leans Obama, and Iowa's 6 Electoral Votes move from Romney to Obama.

In Michigan, Romney was trailing by -6%. A late September poll had Obama way ahead at 54%-42%, but a poll this week shows Romney gaining and Obama slipping to a 52%-45% lead for Obama. Michigan remains a Strong state for Obama.

In Missouri, Romney was leading by +6% into August. A late August poll showed the state flipping to Obama 47%-46%, likely due to the Akin incident. By September, Romney had regained a 48%-45% lead, and October has Romney sustaining a +3% lead at 49%-46%. Missouri falls from Strong Romney to Leans Romney.

In Nevada, Romney was trailing by -5%. A late September poll had Obama losing 3% while Romney remained steady at 47%-45% Obama. A poll this week shows Romney gaining another 2% and bringining Nevada to a 47% tie. Nevada moves to Toss-Up and 6 Electoral Votes are taken away from Obama.

In New Hampshire, Romney was trailing by -5%. A late September poll had Romney pulling off an 8% swing, pulling into the lead at 48%-45%. Polling this week shows Obama gaining 3%, bringing the state to a 48% tie. New Hampshire moves from a Strong state for Obama to a Toss-up, and Obama loses 4 Electoral Votes.

In North Carolina, Obama has been chipping away at Romney's lead. A late September poll had Romney up by 51%-45%. This week, Romney's lead is 51%-48%. North Carolina moves from Strong to Leans Romney.

In Ohio, a mid-September poll shows Obama breaking the summer tie by 1%, inching to a 47%-46% lead. Two polls in October show the race remaining at -1% gap, settling into a 48%-47% Obama lead. Ohio remains a Toss-up.

In Pennsylvania, a 4% Obama lead over the summer became a 12% blowout in the late September poll. A poll this week brings the race back to a +5% lead for Obama at 51%-46%. Pennsylvania remains Strong for Obama.

In Virginia, Obama's success was short-lived. By late August, Virginia was tied again at 47%, costing Obama 13 Electoral College votes. A mid-September poll showed Obama gaining 2% to Romney's 1%, netting a 49%-48% lead for Obama. An early October poll had Romney gaining 1% and Obama losing 1%, and this week's poll has Obama losing another 1%, making the state now Romney's at 49%-47%. Virginia moves from Toss-up to Leans Romney and gives him 13 Electoral Votes.

In Wisconsin, the ground shifted again under Romney. A late-September poll flips the state back to an Obama lead with 49%-46%, and giving him Wisconsin's 10 Electoral College votes. This week's poll has Romney gaining 1%, closing the race to 51%-49% for Obama. Wisconsin Leans Obama.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 260 Romney - 238
Safe Strong Leaning Toss-Up Leaning Strong Safe
EV State EV State EV State EV State EV State EV State EV State
55 California 7 Connecticut 6 Iowa 9 Colorado 10 Missouri 29 Florida 9 Alabama
3 District of Columbia 16 Michigan 10 Wisconsin 4 New Hampshire 15 North Carolina 16 Georgia 3 Alaska
3 Delaware 20 Pennsylvania 18 Ohio 13 Virginia 11 Arizona
4 Hawaii 6 Nevada 6 Arkansas
20 Illinois 4 Idaho
4 Maine 11 Indiana
10 Maryland 6 Kansas
11 Massachusetts 8 Kentucky
10 Minnesota 8 Louisiana
14 New Jersey 6 Mississippi
5 New Mexico 3 Montana
29 New York 5 Nebraska
7 Oregon 3 North Dakota
4 Rhode Island 7 Oklahoma
3 Vermont 9 South Carolina
12 Washington 3 South Dakota
11 Tennessee
38 Texas
6 Utah
5 West Virginia
3 Wyoming
194 43 16 37 38 45 162

2008 Final Results

Link to 2008 Final Election Map

Current State Leanings

Link to Current Electoral College Map

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Electoral
College
P10
GOP
Electoral
College
EV
GOP
Electoral
College
P90
Probability
of 270
2008 Election 180 180 180 0.00%
12-May-12 193 220.73 248 0.16%
19-May-12 197 225.09 248 0.23%
26-May-12 206 232.72 256 1.21%
02-Jun-12 216 242.46 266 4.43%
09-Jun-12 221 247.73 275 14.02%
16-Jun-12 230 257.37 282 28.95%
23-Jun-12 231 257.92 282 30.10%
30-Jun-12 225 254.58 282 24.61%
07-Jul-12 225 254.58 282 24.61%
14-Jul-12 225 254.58 282 24.61%
21-Jul-12 219 248.33 276 16.46%
28-Jul-12 215 244.1 272 11.78%
04-Aug-12 216 245.64 273 12.75%
11-Aug-12 215 245.24 273 12.05%
18-Aug-12 225 255.61 282 25.11%
25-Aug-12 223 252.39 281 21.52%
01-Sep-12 223 252.39 281 22.08%
08-Sep-12 224 252.45 281 21.66%
15-Sep-12 221 249.88 278 17.54%
22-Sep-12 225 252.98 278 20.34%
29-Sep-12 225 252.04 277 19.04%
06-Oct-12 225 253.31 279 21.00%
13-Oct-12 233 258.74 283 27.69%

Link to Probability Chart


TOPICS: FReeper Editorial; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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Romney really has to expand his campaign to include rallying with state candidates. He needs to show his coattails and demonstrate that he's a team builder.

As Romney campaigns in swing states, it's time for him to support the Senate slate with a message of building a team for the future. Romney has to convince voters that it's not enough to replace Obama, but that Romney needs a team in Congress, too, to work with him on putting America back on the right track.

-PJ

1 posted on 10/13/2012 9:02:14 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too
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To: xzins; Jet Jaguar; Hieronymus; newheart; 1010RD; AEMILIUS PAULUS; Alas Babylon!; AuH2ORepublican; ..
Ping to the latest Rasmussen poll analysis. It's not pretty in the race for the Senate.

-PJ

2 posted on 10/13/2012 9:03:14 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

Sorry, but I’m ot wringing my hands yet. Good grief, I’m getting F-ing burned out on these polls.


3 posted on 10/13/2012 9:07:01 PM PDT by Artcore
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To: Artcore

“Sorry, but I’m ot wringing my hands yet. Good grief, I’m getting F-ing burned out on these polls.”
___________________________________________

ot = not


4 posted on 10/13/2012 9:08:22 PM PDT by Artcore
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To: Political Junkie Too

I don’t know what the hell Jeff Flake is thinking but he might want to get out of the McCain “I got it in the bag” mode. Republicans are going to lose Kyl’s seat. That lying Obama turd Carmona is flooding the airwaves with with some pretty brutal ads. Yo Jeff! Time to wake up pal!


5 posted on 10/13/2012 9:08:56 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Dude! Where's my Obama "foam"?)
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To: Political Junkie Too; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; ...

Poll Ping.


6 posted on 10/13/2012 9:09:38 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: FlingWingFlyer
Flake is leading in Arizona by 47%-41%, but you're right that he had a comfortable 47%-31% lead through September. He let Carmona build up an additional 10% support, while he got nothing new.

-PJ

7 posted on 10/13/2012 9:13:59 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Artcore
It's the Senate that you should be concerned about.

While everyone is focusing on Obama and Romney, the Senate is slipping away under the radar.

The MSM isn't talking about it because they don't want to bring attention to it.

The Republicans went from a 90% certain takeover in August to less than 10% probability now. If the elections were held today, Republicans would be lucky to pick up two more seats.

-PJ

8 posted on 10/13/2012 9:17:59 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

What is really aggravating is that Carmona is passing himself off as something he isn’t. A big super HERO who goes around all day just saving people’s lives.


9 posted on 10/13/2012 9:18:12 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Dude! Where's my Obama "foam"?)
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To: Political Junkie Too

No doubt we’d be looking better if it were a midterm.

We need to get out the vote regardless of how Blue a given State may be.


10 posted on 10/13/2012 9:58:04 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Demoralization is a weapon of the enemy. Don't get it, don't spread it!)
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To: Political Junkie Too

This is due to Dems getting more engaged. As long as we turn out enough over Dems, it will be fine.

And frankly, Romney making appeals could backfire by firing up the Dems as well.

It’s not an easy solution...


11 posted on 10/13/2012 10:02:37 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas

That said, I have thought for awhile we wouldn’t get the Senate, which sucks because we will get SCOTUS retirements for sure in the next four years.


12 posted on 10/13/2012 10:03:49 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas
But we should get the Senate. There is no excuse for not picking up 4 more seats.

I'm afraid that McConnell and Co. took their eye off the ball during the August recess and September conventions.

Republicans have never been good at creating a national coalition around a common theme the way that Democrats have done.

Now is the time that we need it, though, and our Senate leadership is old and tired.

-PJ

13 posted on 10/13/2012 10:09:16 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Political Junkie Too
More doom and gloom brought on the polls!

The Democrats are going to get killed this election!

14 posted on 10/13/2012 10:17:02 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Political Junkie Too
Isn't there a Republican Senate Campaign Committee? I have yet to see or hear a word from them. Maybe McConnell is complacent and happy to be in the minority. Like old Bob Michel from the bad old days, he can blame everything on Harry Reid and the rat majority, then go play golf with John Boehner.
15 posted on 10/13/2012 10:26:32 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: fortheDeclaration
Rasmussen has been held up as the most accurate polling, which is why I'm using only his results. I've been tracking it all season, every season. The trend is clear.

-PJ

16 posted on 10/13/2012 10:28:45 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

Before we hyperventilate, we need to know whose polls these are that are showing these sudden drops in GOP support.

Are they MSM polls? If so, toss them in the toilet and get on with your life.


17 posted on 10/13/2012 10:29:09 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (It's time to make Obama a minor footnote in the pages of history)
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To: Yashcheritsiy
Huh? The word "Rasmussen" is all over the report.

This is an analysis of the entire 2012 election Rasmussen polling.

-PJ

18 posted on 10/13/2012 10:35:16 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

I actually think this is a clear evidence of a trend toward Romney. Most independents wants to be thought of as being “balanced” and “open minded”, so they have a tendency to at least claim to be splitting their vote.


19 posted on 10/13/2012 10:36:09 PM PDT by Truthsearcher
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To: Truthsearcher
I think so too, but I'm going to have to look at the crosstabs to see where it is. I only recently started doing that.

-PJ

20 posted on 10/13/2012 10:40:05 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Jeff Flake has run a crappy campaign. And the AZGOP new almost two years ago that Carmona was going to be a tough candidate.


21 posted on 10/13/2012 10:44:06 PM PDT by Hildy (F"When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser." - Socrates)
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To: Political Junkie Too

Very informative (if a little depressing) post!

I’m still pretty hopeful Scott Brown will pull it out over Warren in Mass. It’s going to be close, but I think he’ll close the deal.

Connecticut is disappointing. I think pretty highly of Linda McMahon, and Murphy is just a doofus. I get why she lost in 2010 to Blumenthal - first timer running against a broadly popular state figure. But I really thought she would own things this time around.

As for Missouri...I’m sure to get another round of angry replies and some um, “interesting” FReepmail for saying this, but I blame Akin more than the GOP-E for this mess. I would agree that at this point it’s probably in the GOP’s best interest to support Akin financially, simply because of the stakes (i.e. control of the Senate). He’s damaged goods, but he’s still the only chance to beat McCaskill, and a win is a win.

At the same time, the GOP would not be in this mess had Akin done the right thing and stepped down after his incredibly stupid comments. They destroyed his advantage and his campaign still not completely recovered from them. It’s not fair, but very little in politics is, and sometimes you do what you have to for the good of the cause. There were plenty of solidly conservative alternate choices without baggage, and I don’t buy the “I’m staying in out of principle” narrative he puts forth. Not for one second. I see it as a lot more about a Murkowski-esque sense of entitlement than anything to do with conservative principles.


22 posted on 10/13/2012 10:45:20 PM PDT by DemforBush (100% Ex-Democrat.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

I can’t even watch this. We’re going to have to hope that Romney brings in the Senate. This is all we need, with Reid blocking everything up again, and then having the balls to call the Republicans obstructionists. I can’t even watch.


23 posted on 10/13/2012 10:49:32 PM PDT by firebrand
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To: DemforBush
Yeah, it was depressing to write it, too.

It's too bad that Romney didn't (that we know of) back-channel a deal with Akin to drop out in place of getting an administration post later. That's the kind of executive team-building I'd expect from a CEO that's trying to close a deal.

I wish I saw more team-building from Romney, now that he's riding a wave of success from his first debate.

-PJ

24 posted on 10/13/2012 10:52:36 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Hildy

Hi Hildy. I think we’re going to lose this seat. Flake blew it.


25 posted on 10/13/2012 10:52:55 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Dude! Where's my Obama "foam"?)
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To: Hildy; FlingWingFlyer
Still, a 6-point lead is practically a 95% chance of winning. Granted, he still has 4 weeks to lose it, but he's not there yet.

-PJ

26 posted on 10/13/2012 10:59:13 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Political Junkie Too
Wow! That's quite a lot of work to put this post together, and not unappreciated. A huge amount of information and you deserve kudos.

I don't know who you are getting your polling data from, and it really doesn't matter because, this year, all of them are bogus. Repeat. All. Of. Them. Are. Bogus. These numbers are cooked as bad as unemployment numbers. Why you ask? Because they were told to. By guys with keys to jail cells. It's the Chicago Way and that's something that most of us have never seen before, so we are unsure how to react.

I see crowd sizes in Virginia of four and five figures for Romney on a Friday morning for crying out loud. Everywhere. Obama pulls those numbers for weekend rally's in Northern Virginia only. Yet the polls tell us that Obama is tied or winning. I smell a rat. I also remember a similar situation in 1980. I expect a similar result this time.

27 posted on 10/13/2012 11:18:06 PM PDT by Wingy (Don't blame me. I voted for the chick. I hope to do so again.)
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To: Wingy
Rasmussen only. It's about tracking the trends, including polling behavior.

-PJ

28 posted on 10/13/2012 11:22:11 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

Cool. Rasmussen is a reputable firm and just like everyone else, are using a 2008 model for turnout. Take all your figures and add 4 point to the R side and subtract 3 for the D side and tell me what you get.


29 posted on 10/13/2012 11:25:59 PM PDT by Wingy (Don't blame me. I voted for the chick. I hope to do so again.)
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To: Political Junkie Too
How did he do in the WI recall election?

What is being assumed is a 2008 turnout and it is going to be a massive GOP turnout this time.

30 posted on 10/13/2012 11:26:26 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Political Junkie Too
EVERYBODY..here is our list of Senate candidates that need our help, state by state. Now’s the time to donate to these candidates...Romney will NOT be able to repeal obomacare without the number of Senate Republican/Conservtive votes.

Pass this list on to everyone you know...these folks need our support and WE AND ROMNEY NEED THEM. Romney also has to get the message that he needs to send support/funds to these candidates NOW. Mark Levin has been championing this drive to support these candidates, and I would hope he contacts Sen. Jim DeMint that Romnney needs to send financial help to these candidates.....time to email Jim DeMint.

31 posted on 10/13/2012 11:41:34 PM PDT by itssme
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To: Wingy
I have that uncertainty built into my model, the original post result is without bias correction.

That would definitely improve Romney's numbers, but I'm not sure what it would do to the Senate as a whole.

I'll have to check and report back.

-PJ

32 posted on 10/13/2012 11:45:56 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Wingy
Running with my bias correction model turned on, Romney's expected votes goes to 286 EV, with a 78% chance of winning. We already knew this was the case.

In the Senate, the GOP expected count is 51 seats, and a 74% chance of winning control. That's a slim majority, even with bias corrected.

-PJ

33 posted on 10/14/2012 12:03:05 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: hinckley buzzard
Isn't there a Republican Senate Campaign Committee? I have yet to see or hear a word from them.

What does this mean - you have yet to see or hear a word from them?

34 posted on 10/14/2012 12:14:43 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: Political Junkie Too

My take on the senate is mostly about bad luck, tea party challenges and late primaries combining for a disappointing election.

CT is a deep blue state and Linda McMahon was always a long shot.

FL had a late contested August primary that left Nelson with 10 million cash on hand vs. Mack with 1 million cash on hand.

ME had Snowe retiring in a deep blue state.

MA would always be a difficult hold in a deep blue state.

MO should have been a pick up but Akin came along.

NV should be an easy hold but with Harry Reid lurking, you never know for sure until the ballots are counted.

In OH, Sherrod Brown was always ahead or tied and never behind. OH is a swing state and Brown is a well financed incumbent with no character or ethical problems. His only weakness is his too liberal voting record. This race was always considered an “icing on the cake” pick up and never the cake.

VA is about two well financed former governors going after each other in a swing state. This has been a 50-50 state for a year.

Wisconsin is a deep blue state with a really late Aug. primary. Our candidate is better and we will pick this seat up but it will be close.

Picking up the Senate was about winning MT, ND, MO, and NB while holding IN with Lugar, ME with Snowe, NV with Heller and MA with Brown. Other pickup chances were VA, FL and OH.
Now we are in trouble because of Akin, Snowe, and Lugar. We can still win VA and OH and MA. And Tommy Thompson adds WI as a chance.

So I see our chances little changed from earlier in the year except for Snowe, Akin and Lugar but we gain with Thompson.

Bottomline: We pick up 4 (MT,ND,NB,WI). We lose 1 (ME). We might lose 3 more (MA, NV, IN) but will probably hold 2 of 3. We might pick up 5 more (VA,OH,MO,PA,CT) but will probably get only 1 of these 5. Net pickup is 3 which gets us to 50-50.


35 posted on 10/14/2012 12:18:26 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: Political Junkie Too
Without controlling the Senate, Romney will have a very hard time delivering on the promises he made, especially to repeal Obamacare.

Well duh. This is the only way Romney gets to say he wants to repeal ObamaCare without having to deliver on that promise.

36 posted on 10/14/2012 12:18:26 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (Islam offers us choices: convert or kill, submit or die.)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Flake had a contested August primary and has no money.

Carmona did not have a primary challenge.


37 posted on 10/14/2012 12:25:20 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: Political Junkie Too

Your numbers are wrong. According to the chart you posted, Obama should have 253 instead of 260, and Romney should have 245 instead of 238. The difference between them then is only 8 instead of 22, which is much more positive for us.


38 posted on 10/14/2012 12:45:02 AM PDT by Prince of Space (Be Breitbart, baby!)
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To: Political Junkie Too

That is concerning. I suppose some people moving to Romney will split the ticket with a Democrat for Senate. Too bad!


39 posted on 10/14/2012 1:01:15 AM PDT by Unam Sanctam
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To: Political Junkie Too

What could McConnell and Co. have done differently in August?


40 posted on 10/14/2012 1:03:00 AM PDT by Unam Sanctam
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To: Prince of Space
You're right. The chart isn't matching the narrative. I didn't copy the table headings properly.

Here's the corrected chart.

Obama - 253 Romney - 245
Safe Strong Leaning Toss-Up Leaning Strong Safe
EV State EV State EV State EV State EV State EV State EV State
55 California 7 Connecticut 6 Iowa 9 Colorado 10 Missouri 29 Florida 9 Alabama
3 District of Columbia 16 Michigan 10 Wisconsin 4 New Hampshire 15 North Carolina 16 Georgia 3 Alaska
3 Delaware 20 Pennsylvania 18 Ohio 13 Virginia 11 Arizona
4 Hawaii 6 Nevada 6 Arkansas
20 Illinois 4 Idaho
4 Maine 11 Indiana
10 Maryland 6 Kansas
11 Massachusetts 8 Kentucky
10 Minnesota 8 Louisiana
14 New Jersey 6 Mississippi
5 New Mexico 3 Montana
29 New York 5 Nebraska
7 Oregon 3 North Dakota
4 Rhode Island 7 Oklahoma
3 Vermont 9 South Carolina
12 Washington 3 South Dakota
11 Tennessee
38 Texas
6 Utah
5 West Virginia
3 Wyoming
194 43 16 37 38 45 162

-PJ

41 posted on 10/14/2012 1:06:29 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Unam Sanctam
Organize. Craft a national strategy based on a message that supports Romney.

I don't think anyone is playing from a coordinated plan.

-PJ

42 posted on 10/14/2012 1:11:41 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( It doesn't I naturally when you're not natural born.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

I think the last 10 days have been seismic given the performance of the debates. The momentum is with Romney and there is a growing likelihood that he will win big in November. There is a growing likelihood that he will have coat tails too. I think many of these seats are in play and the dems are very nervous. If Romney wins big in November, there will be dem casualties in the Senate.


43 posted on 10/14/2012 2:37:11 AM PDT by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: Political Junkie Too

And what about Senate races Montana & North Dakota?


44 posted on 10/14/2012 3:22:32 AM PDT by SMGFan (SMGfan is not "Sub Machine Gun" fan)
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To: Political Junkie Too

“I wish I saw more team-building from Romney,..”

Romney isn’t politically savvy. You will not see it now, nor in the future.

For example, he should have reached out to Sarah Palin, and did not. That was a really dumb, f..k, stupid mistake! He did everything possible to exclude her from the Tampa Convention. That screams “political ineptitude’.

His team is rotten when it comes to basic potlical moves, too. They should have been all over McConnell to get with the program vis a vis the Senate. Sheesh!

Let this be a heads up to what we can expect from a Romney White House in the next four-years.


45 posted on 10/14/2012 3:54:09 AM PDT by SatinDoll (NATURAL BORN CITZEN: BORN IN THE USA OF CITIZEN PARENTS.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

Ras is using a +3-5 turnout model currently isn’t he?

If so his numbers are tilted to the dems.


46 posted on 10/14/2012 6:26:09 AM PDT by Leto
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To: Political Junkie Too
Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races ranked roughly from the most to least likely GOP win. The rankings haven't changed much as the election season has progressed. I have not listed states in which the outcome is Safe D or Safe R.

MO was a big blow as that was a sure thing, but we will hopefully still get that one. Several candidates are not performing as well as expected, like Rick Berg, Tommy Thompson, George Allen, and Connie Mack. Romney may have to drag them over the finish line. But some are doing better than expected, like Linda McMahon, Josh Mandel, and Tom Smith. To his credit, Scott Brown is in good shape to beat Fauxahontas.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus is the Senate.

 

10/13/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win

State

Republican Candidate Democrat/IND Candidate Hold OR Gain
NE* Debra Fischer Bob Kerrey GAIN
AZ* Jeff Flake Richard Carmona HOLD
IN* Richard Mourdock Joe Donnelly HOLD
WI* Tommy Thompson Tammy Baldwin GAIN
NV Dean Heller+ Shelley Berkley HOLD
ND* Rick Berg Heidi Heitcamp GAIN
MT Denny Rehberg Jon Tester GAIN
MA Scott Brown+ Elizabeth Warren HOLD
VA* George Allen Tim Kaine GAIN
OH Josh Mandel Sherrod Brown+ GAIN
FL Connie Mack Bill Nelson+ GAIN
MO Todd Akin Claire McCaskill+ GAIN
MI Pete Hoekstra Debbie Stabenow+ GAIN
CT* Linda McMahon Chris Murphy GAIN
PA Tom Smith Bob Casey+ GAIN
NM* Heather Wilson Martin Heinrich GAIN
NJ Joe Kyrillos Bob Menendez+ GAIN
HI* Linda Lingle Mazie Hirono GAIN
ME* Charles Summers Angus King (Ind.) HOLD
WV John Raese Joe Manchin+ GAIN
WA Michael Baumgartner Maria Cantwell+ GAIN
*Open Seat          +Incumbent  

 

47 posted on 10/14/2012 6:33:06 AM PDT by randita
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To: Political Junkie Too

I doubt there will be a whole lot of ballot splitting in this race this year. The Senate will most likely go to whoever wins the President.


48 posted on 10/14/2012 6:41:23 AM PDT by dforest
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To: dforest
I doubt there will be a whole lot of ballot splitting in this race this year. The Senate will most likely go to whoever wins the President.

I think you may be right, but I wouldn't bet the future of the country on that assumption.

I think it would be interesting to discover how many voters split their ballot just as a matter of principle, in the interest of maintaining either a viable checks and balances condition, or just hoping for gridlock.

49 posted on 10/14/2012 8:06:44 AM PDT by newheart (The greatest trick the left ever pulled was convincing the world it was not a religion.)
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To: TMA62
The momentum is with Romney and there is a growing likelihood that he will win big in November.

With all due respect, while I completely agree that the momentum is with Romney, I see zero evidence that he is going to win big.

There is foolish talk of a LANDSLIDE (sic) on this board, without anything but hope to back it up. There are no polls that show Romney cruising towards a landslide, just polls that show him pulling ahead slightly in some key states, while still running neck and neck in others.

The national popular vote also does not support the landslide meme.

I am afraid if we keep talking of a landslide, we may be in for a huge disappointment next month...

50 posted on 10/14/2012 8:10:14 AM PDT by nwrep
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