Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 13, 2012 (Senate Slipping Away)

Rasmussen Reports Data ^ | 10/13/12 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

August 11, 2012
August 4, 2012
July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

This Edition's Updates:

This time, we'll start in the Senate.

The Republican GOP Senate campaign has totally collapsed. Republicans were looking at a near certainty to take control of the Senate, and they are now back to just keeping their current number of seats plus one. This is shameful. Where is the Senate leadership on this? Where are McConnell and DeMint?

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

As of now, the Senate looks to be a 52-48 Democrat hold, with a probability of 8.4% for Republicans taking over.

Since the last report, we had the two party conventions and the first round of candidate debates. And the Akin incident in Missouri. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republican leadership response to Todd Akin's rape comment led to the drop in support for all the GOP senator candidates. McConnell and DeMint better be very visible in the remaining weeks building back the GOP takeover of the Senate.

It's also time for Mitt Romney to roll out his coattails and start rallying for the Senate candidates that he needs to build a united Congress to work with. Without controlling the Senate, Romney will have a very hard time delivering on the promises he made, especially to repeal Obamacare.

See the probability chart at the following link to see how bad it has gotten. Link to Senate Probability Chart

Here is a run-down of what happened.

In Connecticut, a late August poll had Republican Linda McMahon leading Democrat Chris Murphy by +3% or 49%-46%. Now, Murphy is leading by 51%-46%, an 8-point GOP drop.

In Florida, a mid-August poll showed Republican Mack had already lost his July lead over Democrat Nelson, and was down by 7%. This week's poll shows that gap growing even more, with Nelson leading 52%-41%, an 11% lead. Is Florida a lost opportunity, or can Romeny help pull Mack back in front?

In Maine, the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Olympia Snowe is flipping to Democrats. Snowe last won the seat by 74%-20%. Republican candidate Charlie Summers is trailing Independent candidate Angus King by 45%-33%. The Democrat candidate Cynthia Dill has 14%. The discussion now is which party with King caucus with? He will probably side with Democrats when all is said and done.

In Massachusetts, Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren were tied at 48% in a late September poll, matching the 45% tie from a May poll. Now, Warren gained 1% while Brown lost 1%, giving Warren a 49%-47% lead. Can Massachusetts' former Governor Romney push Scott Brown back into the lead in his own state?

In Missouri, Lame Duck Democrat CLaire McCaskill is being handed back her Senate seat by weak, thin-skinned Republican leadership who failed to support fellow Republican Todd Akin, despite being caught in a gotcha interview. Republicans were leading 49%-43% in early Agust when Akin blundered in an interview and leadership fled for the hills. A late-August poll showed McCaskill back in the lead 48%-38%, a 16% swing. A mid-September poll showed some Akin rebound, closing the spread to McCaskill to 49%-43%. An early October poll has each candidate equally gaining 2%, keeping it a -6% spread at 51%-45% for McCaskill. At this point, Romney is keeping his distance although some Senate leadership is quietly supporting Akin.

In Nevada, a late July poll showed Republican Dean Heller leading Democrat Shelley Berkley by 51%-42%. Berkley had gained 2% from a May poll, while Heller remained at 51%. A late September poll had Heller falling 9% while Berkley held constant, closing the race to 42%-41% for Republicans. A new poll this week has Heller widening the gap as both candidates increase, making it 48%-45%, a +3% lead for Heller. Overall, Republicans lost 6% in this race over the summer, barely holding on.

In Ohio, the state had appeared to be moving towards Republicans. Josh Mandel gained 2% from the July poll, while incumbent Sherrod Brown lost 2%, making this race a 44% toss-up. However, by mid-September the lead evaporated and Brown gained from an 8% swing, making the race 49%-41% for Democrats. Mandel has regained his losses, closing the race to a -1% trail, or 47%-46% for Democrats.

In Virginia, an early August poll showed Republican Allen had picked up 1% from a July poll, while Democrat Kaine remained unchanged over three polls. The race was tied at 46%. Two weeks later, a re-poll in mid-August showed the raced still tied at 45% apiece, a -1% drop for each candidate. A late September poll showed Kaine beginning to pull away with a +2% gain of 47%-45%. Two weeks later, an early October poll showed a Kaine surge of an additional 5%, making it a solid 52%-45% for Democrats. One week later, the current poll shows the Kaine bump disappearing, bringing the race back to 47%-45% for Kaine. Allen remains stuck at 45%. Can Romney pull Allen ahead in the final weeks as he campaigns in Virginia?

In Wisconsin, the polls have been swinging back and forth. Republican Thompson went from 52% in June to 41% in early August and back to 54% in mid-August, while Democrat Baldwin went from 36% to 48% and down to 43%. A late July poll had Baldwin inching ahead again to 49%-46%, and the latest poll has her pulling away at 51%-47%. What is happening in this GOP revolution state? Romney needs to convince Wisconsin voters that he needs Thompson in the Senate in order to carry out his program as President.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Connecticut 2: -8% (R -5%)
• Florida 2: -4% (R -11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +2%)
• Massachusetts 1: -2% (R -2%)
• Missouri 2: +0% (R -6%)
• Montana 2: +2% (R +4%)
• Nevada 1: +2% (R +3%) - moves back into the margin of error
• New Mexico 1: -4% (R -11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Ohio 1: +7 (R -1%)
• Rhode Island 2: Never Polled (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: Never Polled (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: +5% (R -2%)
• Wisconsin 2: -1% (R -4%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
12-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
19-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
26-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
16-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
07-Jul-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
14-Jul-12	51	52.04	54	91.10%	5
21-Jul-12	51	52.19	54	92.42%	5
28-Jul-12	51	52.17	54	92.18%	5
04-Aug-12	50	51.33	53	75.39%	4
11-Aug-12	50	51.43	53	78.01%	4
18-Aug-12	50	51.76	53	84.33%	4
25-Aug-12	51	52.59	54	95.05%	5
01-Sep-12	50	51.64	53	82.53%	4
08-Sep-12	50	51.64	53	82.46%	4
15-Sep-12	50	51.19	53	73.42%	4
22-Sep-12	48	49.83	51	30.40%	2
29-Sep-12	47	48.79	50	9.26%	1
06-Oct-12	47	48.49	50	4.63%	1
13-Oct-12	47	48.74	50	8.42%	1

Link to Senate Probability Chart

The Race for the White House

Since the last report, Obama's Electoral College count has gone down to 253 Electoral Votes to Romney's growth to 245, with 37 EV up for grabs. If the election were held today, the race would be leaning to Obama. Probabilistically, Romney has a 28% chance of winning today.

In Colorado, the race was tied at 47% in Mid-August. A late-September poll showed Romney holding steady and Obama losing 2%. This week's poll has Romney gaining 2% and Obama gaining 3%, making the race a 49%-48% lead for Romney. Colorado remains a Toss-up.

In Connecticut, polling has finally taken place. A late-August poll has Obama leading Romney by 51%-43%. A poll this week has Romney gaining 2% and Obama holding at 51%. Connecticut is a Strong Obama state.

In Florida, Romney increased on his +2% lead, gaining another +2% in the most recent poll. Romney's 51%-47% lead moves Florida from Leans to Strong for Romney.

In Iowa, Romney lost his lead. He fell from a peak of 47%-44% in September to now running 49%-47% behind Obama. Iowa moves from Leans Romney to Leans Obama, and Iowa's 6 Electoral Votes move from Romney to Obama.

In Michigan, Romney was trailing by -6%. A late September poll had Obama way ahead at 54%-42%, but a poll this week shows Romney gaining and Obama slipping to a 52%-45% lead for Obama. Michigan remains a Strong state for Obama.

In Missouri, Romney was leading by +6% into August. A late August poll showed the state flipping to Obama 47%-46%, likely due to the Akin incident. By September, Romney had regained a 48%-45% lead, and October has Romney sustaining a +3% lead at 49%-46%. Missouri falls from Strong Romney to Leans Romney.

In Nevada, Romney was trailing by -5%. A late September poll had Obama losing 3% while Romney remained steady at 47%-45% Obama. A poll this week shows Romney gaining another 2% and bringining Nevada to a 47% tie. Nevada moves to Toss-Up and 6 Electoral Votes are taken away from Obama.

In New Hampshire, Romney was trailing by -5%. A late September poll had Romney pulling off an 8% swing, pulling into the lead at 48%-45%. Polling this week shows Obama gaining 3%, bringing the state to a 48% tie. New Hampshire moves from a Strong state for Obama to a Toss-up, and Obama loses 4 Electoral Votes.

In North Carolina, Obama has been chipping away at Romney's lead. A late September poll had Romney up by 51%-45%. This week, Romney's lead is 51%-48%. North Carolina moves from Strong to Leans Romney.

In Ohio, a mid-September poll shows Obama breaking the summer tie by 1%, inching to a 47%-46% lead. Two polls in October show the race remaining at -1% gap, settling into a 48%-47% Obama lead. Ohio remains a Toss-up.

In Pennsylvania, a 4% Obama lead over the summer became a 12% blowout in the late September poll. A poll this week brings the race back to a +5% lead for Obama at 51%-46%. Pennsylvania remains Strong for Obama.

In Virginia, Obama's success was short-lived. By late August, Virginia was tied again at 47%, costing Obama 13 Electoral College votes. A mid-September poll showed Obama gaining 2% to Romney's 1%, netting a 49%-48% lead for Obama. An early October poll had Romney gaining 1% and Obama losing 1%, and this week's poll has Obama losing another 1%, making the state now Romney's at 49%-47%. Virginia moves from Toss-up to Leans Romney and gives him 13 Electoral Votes.

In Wisconsin, the ground shifted again under Romney. A late-September poll flips the state back to an Obama lead with 49%-46%, and giving him Wisconsin's 10 Electoral College votes. This week's poll has Romney gaining 1%, closing the race to 51%-49% for Obama. Wisconsin Leans Obama.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Colorado: -1% (R +1%)
• Connecticut: +2% (R -6%) - moves into the margin of error
• Florida: +2% (R +4%)
• Georgia: Never Polled (R +5.2%) - 2008 result
• Iowa: -4% (R -2%)
• Michigan: +5% (R -7%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Missouri: +0% (R +3%)
• Montana: +8% (R +17%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Nevada: +2% (R +0%)
• New Hampshire: -3% (R +0%)
• North Carolina: -1% (R +3%)
• Ohio: +0% (R -1%)
• Pennsylvania: +7% (R -5%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Virginia: +1% (R +2%)
• Wisconsin: +1% (R -2%)

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 260								Romney - 238
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	7	Connecticut	6	Iowa	9	Colorado	10	Missouri	29	Florida	9	Alabama
3	District of Columbia	16	Michigan	10	Wisconsin	4	New Hampshire	15	North Carolina	16	Georgia	3	Alaska
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania			18	Ohio	13	Virginia			11	Arizona
4	Hawaii					6	Nevada					6	Arkansas
20	Illinois											4	Idaho
4	Maine											11	Indiana
10	Maryland											6	Kansas
11	Massachusetts											8	Kentucky
10	Minnesota											8	Louisiana
14	New Jersey											6	Mississippi
5	New Mexico											3	Montana
29	New York											5	Nebraska
7	Oregon											3	North Dakota
4	Rhode Island											7	Oklahoma
3	Vermont											9	South Carolina
12	Washington											3	South Dakota
												11	Tennessee
												38	Texas
												6	Utah
												5	West Virginia
												3	Wyoming
194		43		16		37		38		45		162

2008 Final Results

Link to 2008 Final Election Map

Current State Leanings

Link to Current Electoral College Map

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
12-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
19-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
26-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
07-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
14-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
21-Jul-12	219	248.33	276	16.46%
28-Jul-12	215	244.1	272	11.78%
04-Aug-12	216	245.64	273	12.75%
11-Aug-12	215	245.24	273	12.05%
18-Aug-12	225	255.61	282	25.11%
25-Aug-12	223	252.39	281	21.52%
01-Sep-12	223	252.39	281	22.08%
08-Sep-12	224	252.45	281	21.66%
15-Sep-12	221	249.88	278	17.54%
22-Sep-12	225	252.98	278	20.34%
29-Sep-12	225	252.04	277	19.04%
06-Oct-12	225	253.31	279	21.00%
13-Oct-12	233	258.74	283	27.69%

Link to Probability Chart

[Hildy]

Jeff Flake has run a crappy campaign. And the AZGOP new almost two years ago that Carmona was going to be a tough candidate.

[DemforBush]

Very informative (if a little depressing) post!

I’m still pretty hopeful Scott Brown will pull it out over Warren in Mass. It’s going to be close, but I think he’ll close the deal.

Connecticut is disappointing. I think pretty highly of Linda McMahon, and Murphy is just a doofus. I get why she lost in 2010 to Blumenthal - first timer running against a broadly popular state figure. But I really thought she would own things this time around.

As for Missouri...I’m sure to get another round of angry replies and some um, “interesting” FReepmail for saying this, but I blame Akin more than the GOP-E for this mess. I would agree that at this point it’s probably in the GOP’s best interest to support Akin financially, simply because of the stakes (i.e. control of the Senate). He’s damaged goods, but he’s still the only chance to beat McCaskill, and a win is a win.

At the same time, the GOP would not be in this mess had Akin done the right thing and stepped down after his incredibly stupid comments. They destroyed his advantage and his campaign still not completely recovered from them. It’s not fair, but very little in politics is, and sometimes you do what you have to for the good of the cause. There were plenty of solidly conservative alternate choices without baggage, and I don’t buy the “I’m staying in out of principle” narrative he puts forth. Not for one second. I see it as a lot more about a Murkowski-esque sense of entitlement than anything to do with conservative principles.

[firebrand]

I can’t even watch this. We’re going to have to hope that Romney brings in the Senate. This is all we need, with Reid blocking everything up again, and then having the balls to call the Republicans obstructionists. I can’t even watch.

[Political Junkie Too]

Yeah, it was depressing to write it, too.

It's too bad that Romney didn't (that we know of) back-channel a deal with Akin to drop out in place of getting an administration post later. That's the kind of executive team-building I'd expect from a CEO that's trying to close a deal.

I wish I saw more team-building from Romney, now that he's riding a wave of success from his first debate.

-PJ

[FlingWingFlyer]

Hi Hildy. I think we’re going to lose this seat. Flake blew it.

[Political Junkie Too]

Still, a 6-point lead is practically a 95% chance of winning. Granted, he still has 4 weeks to lose it, but he's not there yet.

-PJ

[Wingy]

Wow! That's quite a lot of work to put this post together, and not unappreciated. A huge amount of information and you deserve kudos.

I don't know who you are getting your polling data from, and it really doesn't matter because, this year, all of them are bogus. Repeat. All. Of. Them. Are. Bogus. These numbers are cooked as bad as unemployment numbers. Why you ask? Because they were told to. By guys with keys to jail cells. It's the Chicago Way and that's something that most of us have never seen before, so we are unsure how to react.

I see crowd sizes in Virginia of four and five figures for Romney on a Friday morning for crying out loud. Everywhere. Obama pulls those numbers for weekend rally's in Northern Virginia only. Yet the polls tell us that Obama is tied or winning. I smell a rat. I also remember a similar situation in 1980. I expect a similar result this time.

[Political Junkie Too]

Rasmussen only. It's about tracking the trends, including polling behavior.

-PJ

[Wingy]

Cool. Rasmussen is a reputable firm and just like everyone else, are using a 2008 model for turnout. Take all your figures and add 4 point to the R side and subtract 3 for the D side and tell me what you get.

[fortheDeclaration]

How did he do in the WI recall election?

What is being assumed is a 2008 turnout and it is going to be a massive GOP turnout this time.

[itssme]

EVERYBODY..here is our list of Senate candidates that need our help, state by state. Now’s the time to donate to these candidates...Romney will NOT be able to repeal obomacare without the number of Senate Republican/Conservtive votes.

Pass this list on to everyone you know...these folks need our support and WE AND ROMNEY NEED THEM. Romney also has to get the message that he needs to send support/funds to these candidates NOW. Mark Levin has been championing this drive to support these candidates, and I would hope he contacts Sen. Jim DeMint that Romnney needs to send financial help to these candidates.....time to email Jim DeMint.

[Political Junkie Too]

I have that uncertainty built into my model, the original post result is without bias correction.

That would definitely improve Romney's numbers, but I'm not sure what it would do to the Senate as a whole.

I'll have to check and report back.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Running with my bias correction model turned on, Romney's expected votes goes to 286 EV, with a 78% chance of winning. We already knew this was the case.

In the Senate, the GOP expected count is 51 seats, and a 74% chance of winning control. That's a slim majority, even with bias corrected.

-PJ

[Republican Wildcat]

Isn't there a Republican Senate Campaign Committee? I have yet to see or hear a word from them.

What does this mean - you have yet to see or hear a word from them?

[staytrue]

My take on the senate is mostly about bad luck, tea party challenges and late primaries combining for a disappointing election.

CT is a deep blue state and Linda McMahon was always a long shot.

FL had a late contested August primary that left Nelson with 10 million cash on hand vs. Mack with 1 million cash on hand.

ME had Snowe retiring in a deep blue state.

MA would always be a difficult hold in a deep blue state.

MO should have been a pick up but Akin came along.

NV should be an easy hold but with Harry Reid lurking, you never know for sure until the ballots are counted.

In OH, Sherrod Brown was always ahead or tied and never behind. OH is a swing state and Brown is a well financed incumbent with no character or ethical problems. His only weakness is his too liberal voting record. This race was always considered an “icing on the cake” pick up and never the cake.

VA is about two well financed former governors going after each other in a swing state. This has been a 50-50 state for a year.

Wisconsin is a deep blue state with a really late Aug. primary. Our candidate is better and we will pick this seat up but it will be close.

Picking up the Senate was about winning MT, ND, MO, and NB while holding IN with Lugar, ME with Snowe, NV with Heller and MA with Brown. Other pickup chances were VA, FL and OH.
Now we are in trouble because of Akin, Snowe, and Lugar. We can still win VA and OH and MA. And Tommy Thompson adds WI as a chance.

So I see our chances little changed from earlier in the year except for Snowe, Akin and Lugar but we gain with Thompson.

Bottomline: We pick up 4 (MT,ND,NB,WI). We lose 1 (ME). We might lose 3 more (MA, NV, IN) but will probably hold 2 of 3. We might pick up 5 more (VA,OH,MO,PA,CT) but will probably get only 1 of these 5. Net pickup is 3 which gets us to 50-50.

[Carry_Okie]

Without controlling the Senate, Romney will have a very hard time delivering on the promises he made, especially to repeal Obamacare.

Well duh. This is the only way Romney gets to say he wants to repeal ObamaCare without having to deliver on that promise.

[staytrue]

Flake had a contested August primary and has no money.

Carmona did not have a primary challenge.

[Prince of Space]

Your numbers are wrong. According to the chart you posted, Obama should have 253 instead of 260, and Romney should have 245 instead of 238. The difference between them then is only 8 instead of 22, which is much more positive for us.

[Unam Sanctam]

That is concerning. I suppose some people moving to Romney will split the ticket with a Democrat for Senate. Too bad!

[Unam Sanctam]

What could McConnell and Co. have done differently in August?