Posted on 10/17/2012 2:24:21 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The IBD tracking polls have been shifting in and out when it comes to the Jewish vote, but over the last week it’s been a close race between Romney and Obama. And in the last week, Romney has been consistently ahead of Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote. And in some polls, even the share of every Republican in the last 100 years.
While Reagan did receive the highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years, Eisenhower did better in 1956. Hughes and Harding pulled in 43-45 percent in the 1916-1920 elections, but that was before Eastern European immigration processed through the educational systems of the burgeoning liberal state transformed the American Jewish community from a conservative Spanish-German group into what it is now.
New Deal fanaticism gave FDR and Truman a tremendous share of the Jewish vote that began to fall off in the 50s as depression and war gave way to prosperity and suburbanization. Stevenson’s hostility to Israel may have helped bring Eisenhower to nearly Hughes and Harding levels, but it’s likely that comfort and stability played a larger role with Eisenhower picking up 4 percent more in his second election.
Jews chose the JFK/LBJ dynasty over Nixon, but drifted away from McGovern and back to Nixon, so that Nixon in 72 had a higher percentage of the Jewish vote than any Republican until Reagan, giving him the 2nd highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years. Carter had the lowest share of the Jewish vote for a Democrat, so there’s no doubt that his anti-Israel attitude hurt him, but so did the economy. And it’s important to remember that most of Reagan’s 39 percent were also part of Nixon’s 35 percent.
The Jewish vote, like the national vote, is somewhat cyclical. There’s a liberal share of the pie that is unwinnable, but also has no long term future for simple demographic reasons that are already taking hold in New York City. And there is a share that is up for grabs.
The cycle now appears to be shifting away from the Democrats who have blown the economy and the Middle East, both issues of concern to Jewish voters and all voters.
Romney may not beat Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote in the actual election, but right now he’s polling ahead of him. And often ahead of every Republican in the last 100 years.
A shift this major might have all sorts of implications for the future.
WHY do Jews IDOLIZE FDR when he sent the ship St. Louis full of Jews BACK to EUROPE!!! Really.....I don’t get it.
“The Jewish vote is moving more this election than is the general population (maybe the most of any group). So that is an interesting phenomena. Is it a one shot deal, or is it a watershed realignment?”
Both. I think Obama’s obvious anti-semitism makes a lot of still-liberal Jewish voters vote against him.
I also think the Jewish vote is becoming more conservative, or at least more Republican, as economic and small government become the primary focus of the Republican Party.
Social issues that appear to be ham-fisted-top-down-imposed-Protestatism is the primary barrier to the Jewish vote.*
* Note I am not saying this is right or wrong, just stating the issue.
“WHY do Jews IDOLIZE FDR when he sent the ship St. Louis full of Jews BACK to EUROPE!!! Really.....I don’t get it.”
Because the Republicans of the day were largely isolationists or openly supported Hitler.
Not really a mystery.
From this Jewish perspective, your Jewish in-laws define the word DUMMYCRAT!!!
I don't know about Adlai Stevenson II, but Adlai Stevenson III was indeed hostile to Israel.
Eisenhower certainly was no friend of Israel either.
This was Adlai Stevenson III. The Stevenson who ran against Ike died in 1965.
I'm stunned by this. The election occurred in the middle of the Suez Crisis, which saw the US betray Britain and France just to screw Israel and support the pro-Soviet Nasser.
Everyone and his uncle seems to cite that table in the "Jewish Virtual Library" as definitive of how Jews voted for president going back to c. 1912. But you have to question the accuracy of those numbers. The source for that table is a book edited by the head of the National Jewish Democratic Council, who happens to be working the Jewish community for Obama's campaign now (in other words, he's as partisan a 'Rat as you could find with an axe to grind). Aside from that, because Jews represent such a small percentage of the general population and are spread out across the country, any polling of Jews nationally presents some serious logistic problems, and all pollsters face the inevitable conundrum of sacrificing accuracy in results for efficiency of technique or vice versa. Then, too, pollsters in earlier years were handicapped as well by poorer communication and transportation capabilities.
As for Eisenhower, FWIW, he later regretted his administration's policy in the Suez Crisis in his memoirs.
Isolationism in the years preceding Pearl Harbor was a bipartisan movement. Remember that Democrats had both the White House and historically large majorities in both chambers of Congress during that time frame.
In addition, I challenge you to name me one prominent Republican elected official in that time frame who openly supported Hitler.
I think you are buying into the popular historical myths of that era passed down by Jewish Democrats, which regrettably still influence Jewish political behavior today.
I'm Jewish and I don't get it either. The idolization of Franklin D. Roosevelt is largely a result of historical mythology handed down trough the generations in too many Jewish families.
Even aside from the infamous St. Louis affair, the Roosevelt Administration's record on aiding desperate European Jews trying to survive against Nazi geocidal policy was generally abysmal. This is the subject of a book written by Arthur D. Morse titled "While 6 Million Died," published back in the 1960s.
Aside from that, Roosevelt made antisemitic remarks off the record to reporters, some of which later came to light after he died. (He was careful not to let them out to the public, lest it hurt him with Jewish voters.) He also boasted privately that he, as a powerful Harvard alumnus, was instrumental in his alma mater's adoption of a strict quota on university admissions of Jewish students in the 1920s.
But the Schechter brothers supported FDR in 1936 as the "American" thing to do. Jews lived in cities and assimilated into the welfare grievance culture.
Because the Republicans of the day were largely isolationists or openly supported Hitler.
There were isolationists on both sides. Plenty of Jews supported Norman Thomas, who was a member of the America First Committee. And the communists were functional allies of the Nazis from September 1939 until June 1941.
I would agree with you that the "National Recovery Act" was "fascist" in the sense that it set up government-supervised cartels of businesses and unions that dictated wages and prices in various industries and localities. And the outrageous way that the NRA was promoted with parades, etc. smacked of facsist and communist regimes abroad.
But I would disagree when you say that it banned kosher butchering. The Schecter Brothers case against the New Dealers was not a First Amendment freedom of religion case, but rather rooted in the government's denial of their right to contract with their customers. That SCOTUS had the guts to rule 9-0 in favor of the Schecters against the Roosevelt Administration tyrants.
But the Schechter brothers supported FDR in 1936 as the "American" thing to do.
Didn't know that. If they did, I would suggest they may have been intimidated. Roosevelt and pals were not without friends in the underworld, especially in big cities.
I hope so. Even in Israel, you see the kibbutz converting to moshav, and small business startups are exploding. So that evolution looks to be on a convergence course with the economic and constitutional conservative elements of the Republican Party.
It also looks to me that the radical Islamist/Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas vote is getting institutionalized as part of the Democrat Party base - which may make it increasingly uncomfortable to attend Party functions over time, or support potential new Islamist platform planks like sharia, or driving the last Jew into the sea, or some such.
Secular Jews tend to be pretty socially liberal, but Orthodox or observant Reform Jews could probably find a lot of common ground with Evangelical Protestants, on some social issues like abortion or gay marriage. Evangelicals can be pretty pragmatic coalition politicians (Pat Robertson’s father was a US Senator, Ralph Reed is a major political organizer). Nonetheless, I see your point about how their internal talk can scare off outsiders - so absolutely certain, its like my way or the highway.
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