Skip to comments.Romney Polling Better Than Reagan With Jewish Voters
Posted on 10/17/2012 2:24:21 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The IBD tracking polls have been shifting in and out when it comes to the Jewish vote, but over the last week it’s been a close race between Romney and Obama. And in the last week, Romney has been consistently ahead of Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote. And in some polls, even the share of every Republican in the last 100 years.
While Reagan did receive the highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years, Eisenhower did better in 1956. Hughes and Harding pulled in 43-45 percent in the 1916-1920 elections, but that was before Eastern European immigration processed through the educational systems of the burgeoning liberal state transformed the American Jewish community from a conservative Spanish-German group into what it is now.
New Deal fanaticism gave FDR and Truman a tremendous share of the Jewish vote that began to fall off in the 50s as depression and war gave way to prosperity and suburbanization. Stevenson’s hostility to Israel may have helped bring Eisenhower to nearly Hughes and Harding levels, but it’s likely that comfort and stability played a larger role with Eisenhower picking up 4 percent more in his second election.
Jews chose the JFK/LBJ dynasty over Nixon, but drifted away from McGovern and back to Nixon, so that Nixon in 72 had a higher percentage of the Jewish vote than any Republican until Reagan, giving him the 2nd highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years. Carter had the lowest share of the Jewish vote for a Democrat, so there’s no doubt that his anti-Israel attitude hurt him, but so did the economy. And it’s important to remember that most of Reagan’s 39 percent were also part of Nixon’s 35 percent.
The Jewish vote, like the national vote, is somewhat cyclical. There’s a liberal share of the pie that is unwinnable, but also has no long term future for simple demographic reasons that are already taking hold in New York City. And there is a share that is up for grabs.
The cycle now appears to be shifting away from the Democrats who have blown the economy and the Middle East, both issues of concern to Jewish voters and all voters.
Romney may not beat Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote in the actual election, but right now he’s polling ahead of him. And often ahead of every Republican in the last 100 years.
A shift this major might have all sorts of implications for the future.
His slobbering french kisses to the Muslim Brotherhood, the asylum debacle of Hamas to our shores, arming al queada in Libya and Mink glove treatment of Iran and her proxies , has caused a pause in Jewish support of DNC candidates.
It would interesting to see polls on who would get more Jewish votes running against Romney. Barack Obama or Yasser Arafat?
In before “Jews never vote for Republicans!” Oh nevermind.
I’ll bet (and yes, hope) that the other polls start following Gallup’s lead in the next few days.
this has more to do with Obama and his relationships with anti-semitic characters and his disdain for Israel than it has to do with Romney.
I think any Jewish person who is not of the ‘Russian-collective’ variety can plainly see that Zero is the most anti-Israeli, pro-Muslim Brotherhood leaning president that we have ever had.
Thank goodness that the voting booth is 100% private. I think there are a lot of Jewish/conservative Dems/women/young voters and a significant amount of African Americans who are being very quiet about this election and who are going to either pull the lever for Romney or just sit this election out.
I just came back from Fall Break Vacation. I spent two days driving across interstate I-40 through 3 states. I could count on two hands the number of political bumper stickers I saw: 4 for Romney and 3 for Zero. My personal feeling is that this is an indication of a huge victory for Romney: Zero has NO support. ‘Regular’ people are not fooled by the spin and are not going to vote for him. But they will not admit it because they know they will be accused of being ‘racist’. I am as conservative as it gets, but I don’t have a Romney sticker on my car because I work at a university and don’t want my car vandalized.
Don’t nobody make plain WHICH temple Romney goes to, OK?
Any 2008 Obama voter who has not been wracked with guilt for inflicting the worst president in history on both Americans and our allies, particularly Israel, and is not eager to repent by voting for Romney on November 6th, cannot really be Jewish.
Romney will get the entire Jewish vote. Obama will get the entire JINO (Jewish in Name Only) vote.
Jews have consistently voted for every Democrat Presidential candidate since at least the last 70 years. A minority of Jews vote Republican, but they are nowhere near representative of "Jewish voters" as a whole. Even Reagan didn't come close to winning the "Jewish vote" against Walter Mondale when he won 49 states in 1984. Less than 1/3rd of "Jewish voters" supported Reagan that year.
By contrast, Catholics split their vote about evenly between the two major parties (50%-50%), and in 8 of last 9 Presidential elections, the winning candidate won the Catholic vote. That included Reagan, Bush, Clinton, G.W. Bush, and Obama. Oddly enough, Kerry -- a Catholic -- lost the "Catholic vote" in 2004, when a majority of Catholics voted for George W. Bush.
Yet the mainstream media, the GOP leaders, and a bunch of freepers insist during election after election that the Jewish vote is a swing vote "in play", but Catholics are "wholly owned by the Democratic Party and always vote Democrat"
It seems they don't want reality to get in the way of their talking points. If we analyzed geography this way, we'd claim Ohio was "safe Democrat" but San Francisco is "up for grabs and could go to Romney this year"
All these positive post lately but I’m still skeptical. If everything continues in this direction for another week though It will be tough not to get a little excited at the prospects that the Obama regime could lose, and big. For now, I’ll remain skeptical
Gut instinct told me Obama would roll Mcain with ease. My gut has been telling me since mid 2010 that one of my dogs could beat this poser.
Like Clint said, President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.”
Even stupid people see it.
Voting patterns do change over time - blacks were solidly Republican up until the second half of the 20th century, and the most solidly Democrat group in the second half.
The Southern States used to be virtually Democrat one-party rule - now Democrat elected officials are a disappearing breed there.
My own father voted reliably Republican right up till the day he died, and he has been voting Democrat ever since :-]
The Jewish vote is moving more this election than is the general population (maybe the most of any group). So that is an interesting phenomena. Is it a one shot deal, or is it a watershed realignment?
“Nixon in 72 had a higher percentage of the Jewish vote than any Republican until Reagan, giving him the 2nd highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years.”
A bit off the subject, but IIRC, Nixon in ‘72 also got the highest percentage of the black vote of any Republican Prez candidate of the modern era - something like 20-25%, again IIRC.
I am positive that without the fraud, Romney would win in a historical landslide, hands down!
It’s the fraud the probable fraud that has my stomach in knots.
Heck, I live in South Texas and I won't put a Romney sticker on my car for the same reason. The libs are NUTJOBS, and don't give a damn for private property - well, other people's private property, that is...because they sure act in a quite reactionary way when anyone even HINTS at taking something of theirs.
On the Jewish vote issue, I can verify that many Jews are switching their votes - and the ones that are quiet about it are doing so, as well. There were LOTS of vociferous Obama syncophants in my Orthodox synogogue in '08 (still more conservatives, but the libs were out of control happy), but they quieted down a LOT, with only a few holdouts. I hope that the so-called superior intellects of my co-religionists are actually used in this election - because they clearly weren't by about 78% of these morons the last time around.
Demographic changes are a major problem for liberals for a simple reason: The people today who are most likely to reproduce, also tend to be the people most likely to vote for conservatives: Conservative practicing Catholics, reformed/Calvinist or otherwise very theologically conservative Protestants, and—as this article hints—Orthodox/Ultra-Orthdox Jews. The over-educated academic limp-wristed liberal types are either gay, or prefer to abort their children.
The only hope Democrats have is that illegitimacy rates of food-stamp collecting urban minorities continue to be high, and that they increase. Problem is, illegitimacy eventually destroys communities and therefore can become self-correcting. The liberals consequently have to use massive and ever-increasing re-distributionist handouts to keep the repercussions of illegitimacy from causing its own downfall. History shows this cannot be done for ever.
Furthermore, illegitimacy correlates highly with criminal behavior, and felons still are not allowed to vote. Thus, Democrats are increasingly pushing to allow felons to vote, even from prison.
Unless the undecided idiots decide that Obama did well thanks to Mama Cass and her lies.
Jews with skin in the game are the rep supporters
the truth is that there are Jewish Jews and there are JInos.
Because of the Holocaust the latter has dominated the last 75 years, but since Jewish Jews have larger families with Jewish children , the demographics are with us.
Catholics have made up the backbone of the Big City Democrat machines for over a century.
Fraud only works at the margins it cannot stop a landslide.
The switch was made in 1936, 1932 was the last time they voted republican, then in 1936 they instantly became what they are today, an overwhelmingly democrat voting block.
Going by that logic, since Irish-Americans in big cities were staunch Democrat bosses for a century, then Americans of Irish ancestry as a whole in the United States are "wholly owned by the Democratic Party"
In the cities that has been the case.
Democrat control of Chicago has been possible because they control the Irish vote, the Italian vote and the Polish vote.
Certainly enough Protestants vote Democrat to give the machine big victories but I would guess that they do make up the majority of the opposition. You could probably say for sure.
In all honesty, I've never heard anything about Adlai Stevenson being hostile to Israel.
Perhaps Eisenhower's good showings - for a Republican - with Jewish voters had more to do with the association of him with defeating Nazi Germany in WWII and the liberation of some of the Nazi concentration camps.
Chicago was about 65% Democrat in Kennedy's day, today it's over 80% Democrat (I think Gore got 81% of the Chicago vote when he ran against Bush in 2000, and won 49 out of 50 wards. Obama won all 50 but he's "from" Chicago so his numbers weren't typical) The non-Hispanic white population is now less than 32% of Chicagoans, so the Irish/Italian/Polish don't "control" much anymore except for elections in heavily white communities (it really helps to have an Irish last name if you're running for judge in Crook County, and a Polish last name if you're running for a legislative office in a white majority district). The south side is heavily black and protestant (usually Baptist), and overwhelmingly Democrat... they routinely get over 90% of the vote in most of those wards, far more than in the Irish-Catholic wards, where Republicans still get 20-30% of the vote typically. Then there's the hispanic wards, they're pretty heavily Catholic and also strongly Democrat, moreso than the non-hispanic white Catholic wards, but not as much as the black wards. The white protestants in Chicago don't have large enough numbers where anyone has really studied their demographics, though they tend to be from very liberal denominations (United Methodist Church, ELCA, there's a heavy Unitarian presence in the 19th ward although I wouldn't count them as "Christian", let alone protestant) Probably the non-religious secular whites have a bigger influence in Chicago than white protestants, and they also uniformly vote Democrat
I imagine the situation is similar in New York, St. Louis, Nashville (which has very few Catholics), Atlanta, Seattle, Boston (which is extremely Catholic), Philadelphia, San Francisco, Detroit, etc. Basically the Democrats have turned EVERY demographic in those cities in loyal Democrat voters. It's not like they just took over the Catholic communities but non-Catholics in urban cities are voting GOP. If that was the case, the Dems wouldn't be able to swing states like Illinois and Pennsyvania into the Dem column by winning HUGE in the cities.
And since Catholics in the suburbs and rural areas are NOT wedded to the Democratic Party (though sadly the suburbs in Chicago, Pennsyvania, Ohio, etc.), the overall "Catholic vote" nationally is now 50% Republican. Quite different from the "Jewish vote" where they typically vote overwhelmingly Democrat no matter where they're living. The division there is Orthodox Jew vs. all the other types of Jews, rather than urban vs. rural.
(I despise Ike. He helped the Muslims Brotherhood and Arab Socialists and the USSR with this. He also supported the lunatic idea of "Atoms for peace". As far as I know, the only competent thing he did after 1946, was Operation Wetback.)
But pro-Israeli activists haven`t forgotten Stevenson`s legislative record. As a senator, Stevenson had sharp differences with the Israeli lobby on issues concerning the Mideast, including a 1979 vote to cut military assistance to Israel by 10 percent and support of a 1978 weapons sale to Saudi Arabia. Stevenson also met with PLO leader Yasser Arafat, which rankled the senator`s pro-Israeli critics. Stevenson`s photograph was recently featured on the dust jacket of a book critical of the Israeli lobby and written by former U.S. Rep. Paul Findley (R., Ill.).
Wrong Stevenson. This was his son, Adlai Stevenson, III, a total leftist smuck. He was hated by most of those in Washington, including some Democrats.
His father was a gentleman (1950’s, candidate for president, 1952, UN representative, etc.).
The Jews I know, even in my synagogue, are quietly turning away from Obama though our rabbi is a big Obama supporter and White House visitor.
No predictions but Romney is going to get a significant amount of the Jewish vote. Even liberal Jews have seen Obama betray one ally after another - Colombia; Honduras; the peoples protests in Iran 2-3 years ago; Iraq; and now Afghanistan.
His Moslem ties are troublesome with a capital “T”. The fact that Obama is a lying, narcistic, delusional marxist is also not not on my religious brethern.
Michele “Miss Yeti of 2012” Obama is not your typical “Jewish mothers”. She has none of the warmth of a “Mrs. Goldberg” or even a “Mrs. Seinfeld”. More like the “Wicked Witch of the West” or the witch in “Sleeping Beauty.”
Gonna be fun voting on Nov. 6th.
Yes, expat1000, the Adlai Stevenson who was the losing Dem candidate for President in 1952 and again in 1956 died suddenly and unexpectedly some time in the 1960s. I knew he had been long gone by 1979, because I recall seeing his grave site in his home town of Bloomington, Ill. in 1970.
IIRC, Adlai Stevenson was never a US Senator. He was the governor of Illinois before or at the time he ran for president.
OK thanks for the correction. I had a vague memory of hearing about some ill feeling from relatives towards “Adlai Stevenson” so did a quick search and that is what I came up with.
Good to see there are historical experts here as well as on just about everything else under the sun. ;-)
Nope. Nixon got over 30% of AA vote in 1960 but by the time of his landslide victort in 72, AA support for Nixon dropped below 14%.
Well dang, I got that one completely wrong!
If youd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
They hate Republicans because they think we're all Christian.....and they aren't the least bit afraid of the Muslims like they are Christians!
You can't fix stupid.
WHY do Jews IDOLIZE FDR when he sent the ship St. Louis full of Jews BACK to EUROPE!!! Really.....I don’t get it.
“The Jewish vote is moving more this election than is the general population (maybe the most of any group). So that is an interesting phenomena. Is it a one shot deal, or is it a watershed realignment?”
Both. I think Obama’s obvious anti-semitism makes a lot of still-liberal Jewish voters vote against him.
I also think the Jewish vote is becoming more conservative, or at least more Republican, as economic and small government become the primary focus of the Republican Party.
Social issues that appear to be ham-fisted-top-down-imposed-Protestatism is the primary barrier to the Jewish vote.*
* Note I am not saying this is right or wrong, just stating the issue.
“WHY do Jews IDOLIZE FDR when he sent the ship St. Louis full of Jews BACK to EUROPE!!! Really.....I dont get it.”
Because the Republicans of the day were largely isolationists or openly supported Hitler.
Not really a mystery.
From this Jewish perspective, your Jewish in-laws define the word DUMMYCRAT!!!
I don't know about Adlai Stevenson II, but Adlai Stevenson III was indeed hostile to Israel.
Eisenhower certainly was no friend of Israel either.
This was Adlai Stevenson III. The Stevenson who ran against Ike died in 1965.
I'm stunned by this. The election occurred in the middle of the Suez Crisis, which saw the US betray Britain and France just to screw Israel and support the pro-Soviet Nasser.
Everyone and his uncle seems to cite that table in the "Jewish Virtual Library" as definitive of how Jews voted for president going back to c. 1912. But you have to question the accuracy of those numbers. The source for that table is a book edited by the head of the National Jewish Democratic Council, who happens to be working the Jewish community for Obama's campaign now (in other words, he's as partisan a 'Rat as you could find with an axe to grind). Aside from that, because Jews represent such a small percentage of the general population and are spread out across the country, any polling of Jews nationally presents some serious logistic problems, and all pollsters face the inevitable conundrum of sacrificing accuracy in results for efficiency of technique or vice versa. Then, too, pollsters in earlier years were handicapped as well by poorer communication and transportation capabilities.
As for Eisenhower, FWIW, he later regretted his administration's policy in the Suez Crisis in his memoirs.
Isolationism in the years preceding Pearl Harbor was a bipartisan movement. Remember that Democrats had both the White House and historically large majorities in both chambers of Congress during that time frame.
In addition, I challenge you to name me one prominent Republican elected official in that time frame who openly supported Hitler.
I think you are buying into the popular historical myths of that era passed down by Jewish Democrats, which regrettably still influence Jewish political behavior today.
I'm Jewish and I don't get it either. The idolization of Franklin D. Roosevelt is largely a result of historical mythology handed down trough the generations in too many Jewish families.
Even aside from the infamous St. Louis affair, the Roosevelt Administration's record on aiding desperate European Jews trying to survive against Nazi geocidal policy was generally abysmal. This is the subject of a book written by Arthur D. Morse titled "While 6 Million Died," published back in the 1960s.
Aside from that, Roosevelt made antisemitic remarks off the record to reporters, some of which later came to light after he died. (He was careful not to let them out to the public, lest it hurt him with Jewish voters.) He also boasted privately that he, as a powerful Harvard alumnus, was instrumental in his alma mater's adoption of a strict quota on university admissions of Jewish students in the 1920s.
But the Schechter brothers supported FDR in 1936 as the "American" thing to do. Jews lived in cities and assimilated into the welfare grievance culture.
Because the Republicans of the day were largely isolationists or openly supported Hitler.
There were isolationists on both sides. Plenty of Jews supported Norman Thomas, who was a member of the America First Committee. And the communists were functional allies of the Nazis from September 1939 until June 1941.