Posted on 10/17/2012 2:24:21 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The IBD tracking polls have been shifting in and out when it comes to the Jewish vote, but over the last week it’s been a close race between Romney and Obama. And in the last week, Romney has been consistently ahead of Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote. And in some polls, even the share of every Republican in the last 100 years.
While Reagan did receive the highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years, Eisenhower did better in 1956. Hughes and Harding pulled in 43-45 percent in the 1916-1920 elections, but that was before Eastern European immigration processed through the educational systems of the burgeoning liberal state transformed the American Jewish community from a conservative Spanish-German group into what it is now.
New Deal fanaticism gave FDR and Truman a tremendous share of the Jewish vote that began to fall off in the 50s as depression and war gave way to prosperity and suburbanization. Stevenson’s hostility to Israel may have helped bring Eisenhower to nearly Hughes and Harding levels, but it’s likely that comfort and stability played a larger role with Eisenhower picking up 4 percent more in his second election.
Jews chose the JFK/LBJ dynasty over Nixon, but drifted away from McGovern and back to Nixon, so that Nixon in 72 had a higher percentage of the Jewish vote than any Republican until Reagan, giving him the 2nd highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years. Carter had the lowest share of the Jewish vote for a Democrat, so there’s no doubt that his anti-Israel attitude hurt him, but so did the economy. And it’s important to remember that most of Reagan’s 39 percent were also part of Nixon’s 35 percent.
The Jewish vote, like the national vote, is somewhat cyclical. There’s a liberal share of the pie that is unwinnable, but also has no long term future for simple demographic reasons that are already taking hold in New York City. And there is a share that is up for grabs.
The cycle now appears to be shifting away from the Democrats who have blown the economy and the Middle East, both issues of concern to Jewish voters and all voters.
Romney may not beat Reagan’s share of the Jewish vote in the actual election, but right now he’s polling ahead of him. And often ahead of every Republican in the last 100 years.
A shift this major might have all sorts of implications for the future.
It would interesting to see polls on who would get more Jewish votes running against Romney. Barack Obama or Yasser Arafat?
I’ll bet (and yes, hope) that the other polls start following Gallup’s lead in the next few days.
this has more to do with Obama and his relationships with anti-semitic characters and his disdain for Israel than it has to do with Romney.
I think any Jewish person who is not of the ‘Russian-collective’ variety can plainly see that Zero is the most anti-Israeli, pro-Muslim Brotherhood leaning president that we have ever had.
Thank goodness that the voting booth is 100% private. I think there are a lot of Jewish/conservative Dems/women/young voters and a significant amount of African Americans who are being very quiet about this election and who are going to either pull the lever for Romney or just sit this election out.
I just came back from Fall Break Vacation. I spent two days driving across interstate I-40 through 3 states. I could count on two hands the number of political bumper stickers I saw: 4 for Romney and 3 for Zero. My personal feeling is that this is an indication of a huge victory for Romney: Zero has NO support. ‘Regular’ people are not fooled by the spin and are not going to vote for him. But they will not admit it because they know they will be accused of being ‘racist’. I am as conservative as it gets, but I don’t have a Romney sticker on my car because I work at a university and don’t want my car vandalized.
Don’t nobody make plain WHICH temple Romney goes to, OK?
Any 2008 Obama voter who has not been wracked with guilt for inflicting the worst president in history on both Americans and our allies, particularly Israel, and is not eager to repent by voting for Romney on November 6th, cannot really be Jewish.
Romney will get the entire Jewish vote. Obama will get the entire JINO (Jewish in Name Only) vote.
Jews have consistently voted for every Democrat Presidential candidate since at least the last 70 years. A minority of Jews vote Republican, but they are nowhere near representative of "Jewish voters" as a whole. Even Reagan didn't come close to winning the "Jewish vote" against Walter Mondale when he won 49 states in 1984. Less than 1/3rd of "Jewish voters" supported Reagan that year.
By contrast, Catholics split their vote about evenly between the two major parties (50%-50%), and in 8 of last 9 Presidential elections, the winning candidate won the Catholic vote. That included Reagan, Bush, Clinton, G.W. Bush, and Obama. Oddly enough, Kerry -- a Catholic -- lost the "Catholic vote" in 2004, when a majority of Catholics voted for George W. Bush.
Yet the mainstream media, the GOP leaders, and a bunch of freepers insist during election after election that the Jewish vote is a swing vote "in play", but Catholics are "wholly owned by the Democratic Party and always vote Democrat"
It seems they don't want reality to get in the way of their talking points. If we analyzed geography this way, we'd claim Ohio was "safe Democrat" but San Francisco is "up for grabs and could go to Romney this year"
Thanks SeekAndFind.
All these positive post lately but I’m still skeptical. If everything continues in this direction for another week though It will be tough not to get a little excited at the prospects that the Obama regime could lose, and big. For now, I’ll remain skeptical
Gut instinct told me Obama would roll Mcain with ease. My gut has been telling me since mid 2010 that one of my dogs could beat this poser.
Like Clint said, “President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.”
Even stupid people see it.
Voting patterns do change over time - blacks were solidly Republican up until the second half of the 20th century, and the most solidly Democrat group in the second half.
The Southern States used to be virtually Democrat one-party rule - now Democrat elected officials are a disappearing breed there.
My own father voted reliably Republican right up till the day he died, and he has been voting Democrat ever since :-]
The Jewish vote is moving more this election than is the general population (maybe the most of any group). So that is an interesting phenomena. Is it a one shot deal, or is it a watershed realignment?
“Nixon in 72 had a higher percentage of the Jewish vote than any Republican until Reagan, giving him the 2nd highest share of the Jewish vote in the last 50 years.”
A bit off the subject, but IIRC, Nixon in ‘72 also got the highest percentage of the black vote of any Republican Prez candidate of the modern era - something like 20-25%, again IIRC.
I am positive that without the fraud, Romney would win in a historical landslide, hands down!
It’s the fraud the probable fraud that has my stomach in knots.
Heck, I live in South Texas and I won't put a Romney sticker on my car for the same reason. The libs are NUTJOBS, and don't give a damn for private property - well, other people's private property, that is...because they sure act in a quite reactionary way when anyone even HINTS at taking something of theirs.
On the Jewish vote issue, I can verify that many Jews are switching their votes - and the ones that are quiet about it are doing so, as well. There were LOTS of vociferous Obama syncophants in my Orthodox synogogue in '08 (still more conservatives, but the libs were out of control happy), but they quieted down a LOT, with only a few holdouts. I hope that the so-called superior intellects of my co-religionists are actually used in this election - because they clearly weren't by about 78% of these morons the last time around.
Demographic changes are a major problem for liberals for a simple reason: The people today who are most likely to reproduce, also tend to be the people most likely to vote for conservatives: Conservative practicing Catholics, reformed/Calvinist or otherwise very theologically conservative Protestants, and—as this article hints—Orthodox/Ultra-Orthdox Jews. The over-educated academic limp-wristed liberal types are either gay, or prefer to abort their children.
The only hope Democrats have is that illegitimacy rates of food-stamp collecting urban minorities continue to be high, and that they increase. Problem is, illegitimacy eventually destroys communities and therefore can become self-correcting. The liberals consequently have to use massive and ever-increasing re-distributionist handouts to keep the repercussions of illegitimacy from causing its own downfall. History shows this cannot be done for ever.
Furthermore, illegitimacy correlates highly with criminal behavior, and felons still are not allowed to vote. Thus, Democrats are increasingly pushing to allow felons to vote, even from prison.
Unless the undecided idiots decide that Obama did well thanks to Mama Cass and her lies.
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