Skip to comments.$10 Per Gallon Gas (or more) Next Spring.
Posted on 10/18/2012 6:44:01 AM PDT by Any Fate But Submission
Israel must stop Iran from having nukes. Israel has a very very small land mass. It is only 85 miles wide and 290 miles long. It cannot take much of a hit before it collapses. It was decided years ago that the risks of attacking Iran were far less than the risks of trying to survive a nuclear detonation in Tel Aviv. After the Israeli elections in January, Netanyahu will act, with or without the US. The retaliation will be severe. Israel, to preserve its existence, will probably use tactical nuclear bombs. The entire middle east will explode in war and oil prices will go through the roof.
One choice Israel may make is to EMP all of Iran to shut down the entire country. There would be no immediate deaths, but their ability to continue with their nuclear program or to retaliate would be nullified. The downside is that all of Iran would soon be without food and water and Israel would be blamed for a massive death toll.
Irans Plan: AP (10/18/12): The remarks by Gen. Hossein Salami (Iran) appear to be part of Iranian efforts to portray any strike against it as the trigger for a regional conflict that could draw in Iranian proxies, such as Lebanon's militant Hezbollah group, on Israel's borders.
"An attack by the Zionist regime would be an opportunity to destroy that regime," he said, speaking of Israel. "Their defense mechanism is not planned for big and long wars. Their threats are only psychological and if they cross the limit or act upon those threats, (Israel) will definitely be destroyed."
Note: Israel has over 400 nukes and 3 nuke carrying submarines, do you think they will hesitate to use them to preserve their existence?
Here in the USA it is simple to prepare for, just plan on the most massive increases in fuel and then food the world has ever seen and probably, although I do not know the dynamics, significant inflation (loss of buying power). The cascading effects could lead to societal collapse.
So, one morning next spring when you hear that Iran has been attacked. Run dont walk to Costco and buy all of the food you can before it is gone.
I taught university-level economics courses for over 25 years and despite my understanding of supply and demand for oil, I’d like to know how you arrived at $10/gal for gas, or did you just pull that number out of your a$$?
“did you just pull that number out of your a$$?”
I sure hope so!
The dirty little secret is that America has a lot of untapped energy available that it refuses to develop because Middle East oil is cheaper and more plentiful. If that oil production is halted or reduced, there will be a sharp price spike but it won’t stay that high (unless the dollar fails). You’ll see all sorts of North American production crank up, particularly under a Republican administration, that will bring down the price to a more manageable level until the crisis is over.
I get the impression that we’re not tapping into our own reserves and hoping the Middle East will run out or get low one day so we can turn it around on them and turn them into slaves at the pump for huge profits later. Just a thought I’ve had from time to time...
Because commodities markets don't work on supply and demand, they work on fear and expectations. Looking at recent prices. Oil peaked at around $140 a barrel in mid 2008. Six months later it was under $40. If it were a matter only of supply and demand then that would have to mean that either supply quadrupled or demand was only a quarter of what it was six months earlier.
An article in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week said domestic production of oil is up 14% over last year. Another article earlier this year noted that demand for oil has been down in the U.S. for the past few years. Yet oil prices have gone up steadily since the low at the end of 2008, and that is because of the Arab Spring uprisings and tensions with Iran. If Israel or the U.S. bomb Iran then you'll see the commodities markets price oil well over the past $140 high, with corresponding increases in U.S. gas prices. Will it hit $10 a gallon? Maybe, maybe not.
With all my heart I hope that ANOTHER nuclear exchange in that region will never materialize and hopefully the Jews will see to it that there will be no repeat of such an event but just in case it does it certainly would not be the first time for this to happen as the last nuclear exchange in that region took place on the Sinai Peninsular approximately 4000 years ago or 2024 BC and found its way in to history books as the event which became known as Sodom and Gomorrah.
The winds carry the radioactive cloud to Sumer. People die a terrible death , animals perish, the water is poisoned, the soil become barren. Sumer and it’s great civilization lie prostrate. Its legacy passes to Abraham’s son he begets-at age 100 - a legitimate heir: Isaac
And by the way, the remaining scars from this first nuclear exchange in that region can still be seen from a satellite photograph.
The question remains will mankind learns from its mistakes or are we condemned to repeat them until we learn from history.
History has a nasty habit of wanting to repeat itself. If it happens it should come as no surprise, as sooner than later scores will have to be settled one way or another with (i)slam being just about as useless as socialism and eventually needs to go if the human race is to continue on it evolutionary path and a more peaceful coexistence is to evolve. .
Any religion which tries to achieve its aim by means of threats, coercion, violence, murder, intimidation and wants to monopolize its believers surely does not deserve to be called a religion. It only can appeal to very simply minded followers, and their acts of violence certainly bear out these facts. Any well founded religion can survive all types of blasphemy except (i)slam and this is the reason it is forbidden and frowned upon.
It would be great and desirable if things could be settled in a peaceful manner, may be some day this will happen, but so far we are a long ways off.
It doesn't mean that at all.
The demand for oil is highly inelastic which means a 1% change in quantity causes more than a 1% change in price. Market Supply and Demand curves are drawn using the assumption of ceteris paribus, or "other things remaining unchanged". There are other determinants of demand (e.g., price expectations, income, income distribution, etc.) that are factored into real market conditions but, in two dimensional space, only price and quantity are normally examined. Unfortunately, naive analysis "ignores" these other determinants of supply and demand. If you look at the time period you mentioned when oil prices were falling, it was because price expectations were for lower price that shifted the (spot) demand curve to the left, resulting in lower prices. If Obozo came out and said: "Tomorrow, the US gov't will open up ANWR, off shore, and deep water leases to open bid and all bids will be processed in less than 30 days", the price of oil would drop like a stone because one of the determinants of demand (price expectations) changed and ceteris paribus doesn't hold. It's still supply and demand, but looking at all of the determinants of demand.
What is posted here does NOT qualify as News/Activism.
“...the last nuclear exchange in that region took place on the Sinai Peninsular approximately 4000 years ago or 2024 BC and found its way in to history books as the event which became known as Sodom and Gomorrah.”
I never heard that one before; did you make it up? All these years I thought God had caused their destruction. Or did He use nukes? Or was it space aliens? National Inquirer minds want to know.
Utter nonsense. Where is your evidence for this? What about the long-lived isotopes? There'd still be Yttrium-90 in the sand, the decay product of Strontium-90, if this was true. I've never seen a report of this.
There's no way ancient Hebrews had the means to enrich Uranium. Sodom & Gomorrah were destroyed by GOD.
Pipe pines & refinery assets blown up in Syria by the rebels. How much oil does Syria provide to the world?
The Bible tells us that God said He will not let Israel be destroyed if attacked. God has never broken a promise. They may have trouble, but they will prevail.
I suggest that's wishful thinking on your part. In the first place, any such supplies would be years in the future, so the idea that prices would drop immediately is incorrect. Second, even if you were right on that if prices dropped too far it would remove the economic incentive for drilling in areas where production and transportation costs are so high. Third, you completely ignore the fact that oil prices are not set at the wellhead but are set by men and women in New York who will never see a single barrel of that oil, and who are placing their bets on the short term. And an attack on Iran will send oil prices skyrocketing in the short term, perhaps even longer.
This is the same liberal bullcrap they use. When Bush opened up off shore drilling, the spot price of oil dropped over $10 in one day...just on the President's word. If expectations are affected, and they would be...even you said so...the price of oil would decline. It's happened too many times in the past to ignore.
Second, even if you were right on that if prices dropped too far it would remove the economic incentive for drilling
True, some areas would become uneconomical if the price dropped far enough. However, the impact would be greatest on the tar sands in Alberta and the shale deposits in the Western US. There is still plenty of places where, even at $40/bb it is profitable (off shore, ANWR, and deep water).
Third, you completely ignore the fact that oil prices are not set at the wellhead but are set by men and women in New York who will never see a single barrel of that oil, and who are placing their bets on the short term.
Gees...you don't think I know where markets form? It doesn't matter what is happening at the wellhead. It's what's going on in the markets that matter, be it OPEC or the Mercantile Exchange. Also, not all buyers of futures contracts are speculators in your sense of the word. Companies like Delta, United, and many others who consume large amounts of oil do play the futures market and do take delivery of product.
I agree, an attack on Iran would cause the price of oil to rise mainly because of price expectations. There would be a scramble for future supplies. However, how big that spike would be is anyone's guess.