Skip to comments.Breaking Tweet: PA Poll: Romney 49 Obama 45
Posted on 10/18/2012 1:10:42 PM PDT by nhwingut
Tear down this blue wall! Susquehanna: Latest PA statewide, conducted October 11-13, shows Romney leading by 4-points in PA, 49%-45%.
(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...
Poll to be released later...
Holy Moly! (That’s the most sophisticated post I can come up with).
What this means is the great unwashed in Philly and Pitsburgh are staying home. They know its over.
And that very likely means Casey is a goner in the Senate race there.
funny this poll ended 5 days ago..
Large pallet of O2 tanks seen being wheeled into Chicago campaign headquarters.
Margin of error?
Numbers could be reversed. Let’s hold the confetti. There is a lot of premature euphoria out there.
Defeating ANY incumbent president - especially one adored and protected by the MSM - is serious, difficult, and expensive business.
He needs a wider margin than that to overcome the crooked Philly voting.
People have made up their minds.
Its not a close race.
If Zero is in the dumps in the state that hasn’t gone GOP since 1988, you know its over.
If Romney picks up OH, he has a good chance of carrying the Keystone State.
Agreed. He needs to be up +6 just to be safe for the dead and excess Philly vote.
The polling took place 10/11-13. Then they tabulate data, weigh, et. This poll, and most polls, take about 4 days between polling end and release of data. Only Gallup and Rasmussen turn over next day.
Take a look at release of last poll from firm (Oct 8 - but polling took place oct 3-4).
I talked to someone knocking on doors in Pa for Obama.They told me it was close.That was on the 13th.
Their last release was on the 8th, and that poll was done on the 4th to the 6th. Results from that below.
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in the Keystone State by 2 points (47%-45%), with 3% voting for Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson.
If Romney wins PA, all the other “Swing States” will clearly be his.
PA is the Death Knell for the 0bama campaign. If they can’t win there, they can’t win enough anywhere.
Normally, I’d say you’re right - but Democrats aren’t just feeling revved up enough to care.
Then there is human nature - people like to go with the winner.
Their last one conducted on the same weekdays came out on a Monday, this one not until Thursday. So for some reason this one took 3 days longer.
As I recall, AlGore and Kerry both got 115% of registered voters in their elections in some precincts.
If he wins PA, he only needs FL, VA and CO to win. Or any combination of 44 more swing EVs, but those are his 3 easiest pick-ups.
Tick Tick BOOM!
I’ll believe it when I see it. McCain’s campaign lived there for about a week before the election and lost by about 15%
More likely they’ll need N2O.
2012 is NOT 2008.
Please, oh please let this be true!
Come on Pennsylvania!
If this is true - 1972 here we come
Yea but PA ain’t going R. They always tease but in the end that Philly corruption...erm I mean vote always beats out the rest of the red counties.
Well strap my face to the side of a pig and roll me in the mud!
Wow! Sent this to Quinn!
This is a state that went Red in 2010. Elected Tom Corbett, Pat Toomey and the GOP picked up the State House.
There is no reason for Philly to turn out if its perceived O is going to lose.
What this means is Romney is going to spend a lot more time there in the final days. I think its winnable.
I just saw on Hedgehog Report that NumberMuncher had pulled the tweet. Is that true?
The Dems are deflated. I just emailed my most rabid liberal friend (a DC lobbyist) the Gallup tracking poll and he simply replied “Go Tigers” (I’m a Yankees fan).
Coat tails and top hats!
NumberMuncher’s tweet isn’t on he feed anymore.
try to be positive, not pollyannish, but positive.
And now the tweet’s back... weird.
I see a landslide coming. YES!
Pennsylvania would be a great prize....not getting my hopes up we’ve been teased before.
The revenge of Big Coal!
Is that enough margin to overcome the 107% voter turnout for Obama in Philadelphia?
Whether PA votes R/R or not (remember, there are millions of dead people in Philadelphia), if he’s up in PA, Ohio is gone for the Kenyan, probably MI, WI, IA and a few others.
This poll may be the canary in the coal mine for the Kenyan. And it’s lookin’ like a dead canary.
I think Romney is probably up by 7+ and if the Democrats are really demoralized, he could take the state by 10+. He’s not like Bush - he’s a liberal Republican who fits naturally in with the NE.
He won’t win his home state of MA or carry NY but that’s due mainly to the fact the demographics make it impossible for a GOP presidential candidate to win there. Reagan was the exception to that rule.
Scuttlebutt I’m getting is that large numbers of riff-raff still think they are gonna need an ID to vote this time. They are too busy getting drunk, high, or watching reality TV to realize that a judge put the law on hold. So if they don’t have a valid ID (or DO have a bench warrant or somesuch) they’ll probably stay home.
If true this all hinges on how well the Dems can get word to their lemmings the they won’t need an ID.
PA is usually ‘fools gold’ for the GOP in presidential elections, but this one could be different. With the coal issue big there, plus many elderly and Jewish voters, and a lot of Reagan Democrats that have nothing in common with Obama, I’d say it’s worth at least putting some resources into the state.
It appears in Philadelphia that they vote for the Democrat when they don’t show up. I’m not sure that staying home helps.
Independents will break heavily R. And Obamacare is unpopular in places like PA.
Obama will get his 47% for sure but he won’t win.