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Romney Has Best Gallup Tracking Poll Numbers Since 1968
Washington Times ^ | 10-21-12 | James S. Robbins

Posted on 10/22/2012 8:52:42 AM PDT by kingattax

Mitt Romney continues to out-poll every winning presidential challenger since 1968.

The latest Gallup daily tracking poll of likely voters has Mr. Romney leading Barack Obama by seven points, 52% to 45%. Mr. Romney’s total is greater than Richard Nixon’s 44% at this point in the race in 1968, Jimmy Carter’s 49% in 1976, Ronald Reagan’s hard to believe 39% in 1980 (Carter was ahead with 45%), George H. W. Bush’s 50% in 1988, and Bill Clinton’s 40% in 1992.

In 2000 and 2008 George W. Bush and Barack Obama both tracked at a within-error 51%.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; poll; polls; romney2012
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1 posted on 10/22/2012 8:52:44 AM PDT by kingattax
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To: kingattax
but Obama is going to win the election...all the news networks tell me so!!

: )

2 posted on 10/22/2012 8:54:24 AM PDT by Fedupwithit ("Live Free or Die: Death is not the worst of evils" - Gen. John Stark)
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To: kingattax

Fab!


3 posted on 10/22/2012 8:54:46 AM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
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To: Fedupwithit

Ruh Roh! Romney is on a roll. Keep hustling, finish strong!


4 posted on 10/22/2012 8:57:16 AM PDT by resistance (abandon all hope and rational thought, become a democrat)
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To: kingattax

Romney is probably sitting at 54% and the only other winning GOP presidential candidate who got it was Bush I in 1988 and he won by a landslide. Gallup hasn’t been wrong very often and all the polls that show it as a close race - RCP in particular - are way off! That’s just my view since their predictive model is pure garbage. Today’s numbers in CO show that the state polls coming into view confirm Gallup IS correct, as they always lag behind. With 54%, I don’t see Romney loses OH and PA. I say he wins them both. It should hold up after tonight’s debate.


5 posted on 10/22/2012 8:59:00 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: kingattax

My biggest fear is that R/R get 53% of the vote and somehow lose the electoral vote. It can happen. Bush destroyed Kerry in ‘04 and could have easily lost the election if OH had slipped a few points in Lurches direction.

The worst thing about this is that Nobama would still govern as if he has a mandate just to spite the people. How dare they challenge King Barak?


6 posted on 10/22/2012 9:04:55 AM PDT by thepatriot1 (...brought to you courtesy of the Red, White and Blue)
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To: thepatriot1

The popular vote types/sites are still out there but very quiet this cycle....


7 posted on 10/22/2012 9:06:34 AM PDT by relictele
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To: kingattax

Wow. Just think of that.

Johnson had put the country in such a state that there were riots in the streets. Major cities were burning, national guard in the streets. Two major public figures had been assassinated, and Johnson had realized his situation was so hopeless that the threw in the towel.

That was the tidal pressure behind Nixon in 1968. And Romney is polling ahead of him, even with the substantially more partisan media/polling environment we have today.

1968 was pre-Watergate, remember. The “MSM” was nothing like today; it hadn’t yet been taken over by the people who were organizing the riots.


8 posted on 10/22/2012 9:06:45 AM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: goldstategop
When Romney wins God willing, the first hint of bad economic news will elicit the following headline.

“...Obama recovery stalls under Romney.”

Expect to hear this by December.

9 posted on 10/22/2012 9:07:31 AM PDT by Awgie (truth is always stranger than fiction)
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To: kingattax

PRAISE GOD AND KEEP PRAYING!


10 posted on 10/22/2012 9:08:31 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Steely Tom
Johnson had put the country in such a state that there were riots in the streets. Major cities were burning, national guard in the streets.

I was told this would happen if I voted for Goldwater, darn if they weren't right.

11 posted on 10/22/2012 9:09:36 AM PDT by dfwgator (World Series bound and picking up steam, GO GET 'EM,TIGERS!)
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To: thepatriot1
My biggest fear is that R/R get 53% of the vote and somehow lose the electoral vote.

I don't think it's possible with a 53-47 breakdown. A close race that's withing 1 point is a possibility but I don't see that happening.

12 posted on 10/22/2012 9:12:47 AM PDT by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: kingattax

“We have never weighted polls by party affiliation” - Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of Gallup.

Party affiliation follows the way a person is currently inclined to vote and party affiliation doesn’t drive how someone votes.

“We only ask the person after we have polled them who they currently self-identify with at the end of the poll for informational purposes.”

See here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2948176/posts?page=1

Somebody explain to me how such a methodology is better and more accurate than the others.


13 posted on 10/22/2012 9:13:35 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: kingattax

On October 20, in 1992, Gallup had Clinton beating Bush by 13 points. That was down, mind you, from 25 points.


14 posted on 10/22/2012 9:14:18 AM PDT by dangus
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To: kingattax
"Ronald Reagan’s hard to believe 39% in 1980 (Carter was ahead with 45%)"

Let's just hope we're not seeing a repeat of this!

15 posted on 10/22/2012 9:14:41 AM PDT by kimchi lover (Obyebye 2012)
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To: kingattax

Larry Sabato, Crapweasel Extraordinaire, was on Fox this morning saying “the Gallup numbers are completely wrong!”

They showed a clip of a Gallup guy saying their methods are absolutely solid, and of course some people are upset about them because they don’t like what they are seeing, LOL.

The tide has turned.


16 posted on 10/22/2012 9:14:43 AM PDT by CatherineofAragon (Don't be afraid to see what you see. (Ronald Reagan))
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To: kingattax

Watch for the MSM meltdown...


17 posted on 10/22/2012 9:14:51 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: kingattax
Gallup has not been way off in a presidential election since 1948, when their final poll had Dewey beating Truman by 5 points (Truman won by 4). In 1976, their final poll had Ford up by 1 and he lost to Carter by 2 (difference of 3 points).

Other than that, Gallup has picked the winner in the presidential election every time since they started back in 1936.

Normally you see a "surge" for the challenger in the final few days, as we saw with Reagan in 1980. For Romney to be 7 points up (as of yesterday), well you can't ask to be in a better position than that.

18 posted on 10/22/2012 9:16:05 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Fedupwithit

My wife is concerned, despite the polls,
that 0bama being who he is and who he is backed by,

will simply steal the election.


19 posted on 10/22/2012 9:16:05 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: SeekAndFind

Weighing by party affiliation is an excellent way of confirming the validity of your sampling technique. The problem is that party registration is verifiable, party affiliation is not.


20 posted on 10/22/2012 9:16:47 AM PDT by dangus
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To: kingattax

55% / 45%. I’ve been calling it thusly since mid-summer. I’m just waiting for the numbers to catch up.

When people go into the voting booth, they really have one big choice:

“Do I want for more years of this?”

And the answer will be a resounding “NO!”

Life in America sucks worse than at any time in post-Depression history. Everyone can feel it. We want the awful 0bama years behind us.

We could have run a real conservative and won 55% / 45%.


21 posted on 10/22/2012 9:19:05 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie ( “Obama, Obama, there are still a billion Osamas” - Cairo Protesters, 9/11/2012)
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To: dangus

Clinton got 43% on Election Day - got 3+ over the last poll in October 1992. Romney will be up by 2+ over this poll on Election Day. If Obama melts down tonight, NJ, MI, WA and OR could come into play but I don’t expect that to happen.

All Romney needs to do put in a good performance tonight and the rest will take care of itself.


22 posted on 10/22/2012 9:21:55 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: dfwgator

This is what beat Goldwater, the ad that changed the course of History..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkWAhuXtalw

When the world saw it, it was over! I hate to say it, but I think we just might see an updated version of this if Romney doesn’t see the TRAP tonight.. The only trick Obama has is FEAR.. The FEAR OF WAR..

What would Romney do with Iran, Israel, the fear of Syria, etc.. This is why Obama stalled before identifying the reason for the attack, HE NEEDED TO BE SURE! Thank God we had a steady hand at the helm! I hope I’m wrong, BUT.... ?


23 posted on 10/22/2012 9:22:57 AM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: Awgie

That won’t happen. The recovery begins the day Romney is elected especially if he gets a Republican Senate. The recovery will begin with a surge as job creators feel a massive weight lifted off their shoulders.


24 posted on 10/22/2012 9:22:57 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: kingattax

Imagine what our nation would be like if it had more papers like the Washington Times.

Too bad some of those rich guys Obama likes to slam don’t buy up the major papers and switch the tone.


25 posted on 10/22/2012 9:23:10 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Fooled folks once didn't you. Revenge is spelled, "VOTE RED". You're going down donkeys...)
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To: Steely Tom

Not to mention...

The country has grown more libtarded since then.


26 posted on 10/22/2012 9:24:17 AM PDT by mkboyce
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To: CatherineofAragon

What was Sabato’s reasoning for saying Gallup is completely wrong?


27 posted on 10/22/2012 9:24:43 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: MrB

People on the DU say the same thing about Romney.

It’s all nonsense both ways.

The GOP hasnt had a clear-cut election night win since 1988. We just aren’t used to winning, so when it looks like it, some get worried.


28 posted on 10/22/2012 9:26:17 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: Steely Tom

I think it would be fitting if in honor if McGovern death if Obamas electoral map is worse than McGoverns


29 posted on 10/22/2012 9:26:25 AM PDT by edzo4 (You call us the 'Party Of No', I call us the resistance.)
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To: edzo4

Not to going to happen. A GOP presidential candidate today is not going to beat RR’s popular vote percentage and EV record and the Mittser is no RR. But he’s in the sweet spot. Just where you want to be two weeks out from the election.


30 posted on 10/22/2012 9:30:57 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: thepatriot1

Not to worry: I believe it very likely that Obama is going to top out at 43% of the vote.


31 posted on 10/22/2012 9:32:35 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: thepatriot1

“My biggest fear is that R/R get 53% of the vote and somehow lose the electoral vote. It can happen. Bush destroyed Kerry in ‘04 and could have easily lost the election if OH had slipped a few points in Lurches direction.”

Actually, the final total in 2004 was 51-48 Bush, and he carried OH by 126,000 votes, which was by roughly the same margin as the national poll. I wouldn’t worry about a scenario of getting 53% and losing — that, while possible, is nearly impossible, certainly nothing to lose any sleep over.


32 posted on 10/22/2012 9:40:57 AM PDT by lquist1
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To: KansasGirl
"What was Sabato’s reasoning for saying Gallup is completely wrong?"

There really wasn't any, other than saying that such a split was laughable. A glance at some of his tweets reveals that he doesn't know WHY that could be, only that it's his personal feeling that millions don't shift their votes so easily. What he is missing is the fact that, up until very recently, the polls were designed to INFLUENCE opinion, not reflect it.

33 posted on 10/22/2012 9:46:00 AM PDT by CatherineofAragon (Don't be afraid to see what you see. (Ronald Reagan))
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To: CatherineofAragon

He’s wrong. All the other polls are in line with Gallup. If Romney wins independents by around 10 pts as all the polls are showing, he wins by the popular vote by 7-10 pts. Sabato is a Dem hack and is in denial.


34 posted on 10/22/2012 9:49:16 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: goldstategop

I agree that Romney is the likely winner, and potentially by a surprising margin. I was only noting that the assertion of the author - that Romney’s tracking numbers are the nest since 1968 - was wrong. IN fact, it is laughably, miserably, astonishingly wrong.


35 posted on 10/22/2012 9:51:32 AM PDT by dangus
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To: carlo3b

That famous mushroom cloud ad created lots of talk but had little effect on the election and may had helped Goldwater. After all, the polls were showing that he would might lose his home state of Arizona. But Barry carried Arizona.

In Alabama when one mentions the ‘64 landslide it refers to how great the Goldwater margin was. His coattails swept in a slate of Republican Congressman in the then solid Dem South.

Goldwater said that the main factor in his defeat was that the country did not want a third prez within a year and a half and the sentimental JFK legacy in LBJ’s hands was strong.


36 posted on 10/22/2012 10:04:11 AM PDT by Monterrosa-24 (...even more American that a French bikini and a Russian AK-47.)
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To: KansasGirl

Sabato says Gallup was wrong because Gallup disagrees with what - and I’m paraphrasing here - everyone knows will happen.

Like all things liberal, they have to have an air of inevitability to them. Their logic and approach is the very definition of “who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes”


37 posted on 10/22/2012 10:15:15 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (The Left blaming Jim Lehrer for the debate is like blaming Liencoln's assassination on the play.i of)
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To: lquist1

Haven’t the democrats been pushing that popular vote thing where some states have said they will pledge their Delegates to the winner of the national popular vote.


38 posted on 10/22/2012 10:16:41 AM PDT by edzo4 (You call us the 'Party Of No', I call us the resistance.)
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To: kingattax

We gotta win beyond the margin of lawyer.

39 posted on 10/22/2012 10:17:45 AM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets (Obama: Brought to you by the letter "O" and the number 16 trillion.)
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To: kingattax

The same people who could not believe the whitewashing we put on the Dems in the 2010 midterms will be stunned - STUNNED - when Romney demolishes Obama. It’s like they are forcing themselves to not see it coming.


40 posted on 10/22/2012 10:19:41 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (The Left blaming Jim Lehrer for the debate is like blaming Liencoln's assassination on the play.i of)
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To: edzo4

Yes they have and they will continue to do so as long as it benefits them


41 posted on 10/22/2012 10:24:25 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (The Left blaming Jim Lehrer for the debate is like blaming Liencoln's assassination on the play.i of)
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To: KansasGirl
Sorry for not getting back to you earlier; FR has been timing out for me and I couldn't get a post through.

"What was Sabato’s reasoning for saying Gallup is completely wrong?"

There really wasn't any, other than saying such a split was laughable. A glance at some of his tweets reveals that he doesn't know WHY that could be, only that it's his personal feeling that millions don't shift their votes so easily. What he is missing is the fact that, up until very recently, the polls were designed to INFLUENCE opinion, not reflect it. Now Rush is saying Reuters is using the same "reasoning" as Sabato to try and discredit Gallup.

"He's wrong."

You bet your sweet Obama he is. ;)

42 posted on 10/22/2012 10:27:14 AM PDT by CatherineofAragon (Don't be afraid to see what you see. (Ronald Reagan))
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To: kingattax

The question if what will conservatives do if obama wins by a tenth of a per cent? Will they riot if it’s obviously voter fraud?


43 posted on 10/22/2012 10:41:11 AM PDT by Terry Mross
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To: dangus
Weighing by party affiliation is an excellent way of confirming the validity of your sampling technique. The problem is that party registration is verifiable, party affiliation is not.

Well put.

Gallup's methodology is fine at the national level.

Rasmussen's partisan weighting methodology is fine, too, though slower to catch trends.

On the state level, strong campaign organizations can turn unlikely voters into likely voters (and use ads to demotivate voters favorable to their opponent) and outperform their poll results, but there's a limit to what that can accomplish.

44 posted on 10/22/2012 10:41:44 AM PDT by Skulllspitter
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To: Monterrosa-24

... a.. er.. I was Goldwater for Illinois, Co Chairman.. I/WE saw it much different then your, what? Something that you read on the internet? I don’t want or need an argument, that is not necessary.. I posted something that I lived through, personally, and I posted what I know..

If you disagree, Fine.. Thanks


45 posted on 10/22/2012 10:42:45 AM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: thepatriot1
"Bush destroyed Kerry in ‘04 and could have easily lost the election if OH had slipped a few points in Lurches direction."

BS.

First of all, where were the votes going to come from, WHEN OHIO MIRRORED THE NATIONAL RESULTS:

2004 National 50.7 48.3
2004 Ohio 50.8 48.7

The final margin of Bush's Ohio victory was 126,885, just under the population of Dayton (166,179) as Ohio's 7th-largest city. It was a substantial Ohio win by Bush in '04 by any measure.

To illustrate: the number of votes that Kerry lost Ohio by, was greater than the number of votes needed that would have propelled Bush to take WI, PA, MI, and NH in a Reagan-like sweep -- in fact, less than 100,000 votes.

46 posted on 10/22/2012 10:44:52 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NV, NH = 291EV)
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To: Terry Mross

As Teddy Kennedy said: “We will cross that bridge if we get to it.”

:-)


47 posted on 10/22/2012 10:45:16 AM PDT by cgbg (No bailouts for New York and California. Let them eat debt.)
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To: dangus
FROM GALLUP's OWN WEBSITE :


Election Year Presidential Preferences: Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
1936 - 2008

Year Nominees Final Poll Election Results Deviation
2008 Barack Obama 55 52.6  -2
John McCain 44 46.0 +2
2004 George W. Bush 49 50.7  -2
John F. Kerry 49 48.3 +1
2000 George W. Bush 48 47.9   0
Albert Gore, Jr. 46 48.4  -2
Ralph Nader 4   2.7 +1
1996 William J. Clinton 52 49.2 +3
Robert Dole 41 40.7  0
H. Ross Perot 7   8.4 -1
1992 William J. Clinton 49 43.0 +6
George Bush 37 37.4   0
H. Ross Perot 14 18.9 -5
1988 George Bush 56 53.4 +3
Michael Dukakis 44 45.6  -2
1984 Ronald Reagan 59 58.8  0
Walter F. Mondale 41 40.6  0
1980 Ronald Reagan 47 50.7  -4
Jimmy Carter 44 41.0 +3
John Anderson 8   6.6 +1
1976 Jimmy Carter 48 50.1  -2
Gerald Ford 49 48.0 +1
1972 Richard Nixon 62 60.7 +1
George McGovern 38 37.5   0
1968 Richard Nixon 43 43.4   0
Hubert H. Humphrey 42 42.7  -1
George Wallace 15 13.5 +1
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson 64 61.1 +3
Barry Goldwater 36 38.5  -3
1960 John F. Kennedy 51 49.7 +1
Richard Nixon 49 49.5  -1
1956 Dwight Eisenhower 59.5 57.4 +2
Adlai Stevenson 40.5 42.0  -2
1952 Dwight Eisenhower 51 55.1  -4
Adlai Stevenson 49 44.4 +5
1948 Harry S. Truman 44.5 49.5  -5
Thomas E. Dewey 49.5 45.1  -4
Strom Thurmond 4   2.4 +2
1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt 51.5 53.4  -2
Thomas E. Dewey 48.5 45.9 +3
1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt 52 54.7  -3
Wendell L. Willkie 48 44.8 +3
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt 55.7 60.8  -5
Alfred M. Landon 44.3 36.5 +8


48 posted on 10/22/2012 10:46:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: CatherineofAragon
"Larry Sabato, Crapweasel Extraordinaire, was on Fox this morning saying “the Gallup numbers are completely wrong!"

Oooh, listen to the stuck pig squeal. Because Gallup has unmasked the polling propoganda squad, which puts Sabato out of work -- no one wants him to discuss a blowout election.

49 posted on 10/22/2012 10:47:55 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NV, NH = 291EV)
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To: Skulllspitter; dangus

RE: Gallup’s methodology is fine at the national level.

Rasmussen’s partisan weighting methodology is fine, too, though slower to catch trends.

_____________________

That’s why I’d like to see the Mason-Dixon Poll of specific states. They’re probably the best pollsters out there at this point in time at the STATE level.


50 posted on 10/22/2012 10:49:25 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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