Skip to comments.Romney Has Best Gallup Tracking Poll Numbers Since 1968
Posted on 10/22/2012 8:52:42 AM PDT by kingattax
Mitt Romney continues to out-poll every winning presidential challenger since 1968.
The latest Gallup daily tracking poll of likely voters has Mr. Romney leading Barack Obama by seven points, 52% to 45%. Mr. Romneys total is greater than Richard Nixons 44% at this point in the race in 1968, Jimmy Carters 49% in 1976, Ronald Reagans hard to believe 39% in 1980 (Carter was ahead with 45%), George H. W. Bushs 50% in 1988, and Bill Clintons 40% in 1992.
In 2000 and 2008 George W. Bush and Barack Obama both tracked at a within-error 51%.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
Ruh Roh! Romney is on a roll. Keep hustling, finish strong!
Romney is probably sitting at 54% and the only other winning GOP presidential candidate who got it was Bush I in 1988 and he won by a landslide. Gallup hasn’t been wrong very often and all the polls that show it as a close race - RCP in particular - are way off! That’s just my view since their predictive model is pure garbage. Today’s numbers in CO show that the state polls coming into view confirm Gallup IS correct, as they always lag behind. With 54%, I don’t see Romney loses OH and PA. I say he wins them both. It should hold up after tonight’s debate.
My biggest fear is that R/R get 53% of the vote and somehow lose the electoral vote. It can happen. Bush destroyed Kerry in ‘04 and could have easily lost the election if OH had slipped a few points in Lurches direction.
The worst thing about this is that Nobama would still govern as if he has a mandate just to spite the people. How dare they challenge King Barak?
The popular vote types/sites are still out there but very quiet this cycle....
Wow. Just think of that.
Johnson had put the country in such a state that there were riots in the streets. Major cities were burning, national guard in the streets. Two major public figures had been assassinated, and Johnson had realized his situation was so hopeless that the threw in the towel.
That was the tidal pressure behind Nixon in 1968. And Romney is polling ahead of him, even with the substantially more partisan media/polling environment we have today.
1968 was pre-Watergate, remember. The “MSM” was nothing like today; it hadn’t yet been taken over by the people who were organizing the riots.
“...Obama recovery stalls under Romney.”
Expect to hear this by December.
PRAISE GOD AND KEEP PRAYING!
I was told this would happen if I voted for Goldwater, darn if they weren't right.
I don't think it's possible with a 53-47 breakdown. A close race that's withing 1 point is a possibility but I don't see that happening.
“We have never weighted polls by party affiliation” - Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of Gallup.
Party affiliation follows the way a person is currently inclined to vote and party affiliation doesn’t drive how someone votes.
“We only ask the person after we have polled them who they currently self-identify with at the end of the poll for informational purposes.”
Somebody explain to me how such a methodology is better and more accurate than the others.
On October 20, in 1992, Gallup had Clinton beating Bush by 13 points. That was down, mind you, from 25 points.
Let's just hope we're not seeing a repeat of this!
Larry Sabato, Crapweasel Extraordinaire, was on Fox this morning saying “the Gallup numbers are completely wrong!”
They showed a clip of a Gallup guy saying their methods are absolutely solid, and of course some people are upset about them because they don’t like what they are seeing, LOL.
The tide has turned.
Watch for the MSM meltdown...
Other than that, Gallup has picked the winner in the presidential election every time since they started back in 1936.
Normally you see a "surge" for the challenger in the final few days, as we saw with Reagan in 1980. For Romney to be 7 points up (as of yesterday), well you can't ask to be in a better position than that.
My wife is concerned, despite the polls,
that 0bama being who he is and who he is backed by,
will simply steal the election.
Weighing by party affiliation is an excellent way of confirming the validity of your sampling technique. The problem is that party registration is verifiable, party affiliation is not.
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