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Suffolk Poll of Ohio: Tied at 47% Sample is D+4. Sample voted for Obama in 08 by 6% (he won by 5%)
RCP ^

Posted on 10/22/2012 10:48:56 AM PDT by Arthurio

Suffolk Poll of Ohio: Tied at 47% Sample is D+4. Sample voted for Obama in 08 by 6% (he won by 5%)

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; oh2012

1 posted on 10/22/2012 10:48:58 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

I believe Suffolk is the polling outfit that all but conceded Florida, North Carolina AND Virginia to Romney.

They said over a week ago that they’re not going to put more resources polling those states.


2 posted on 10/22/2012 10:51:05 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Arthurio

Reality returns. O stuck at 47%. Romney will win.


3 posted on 10/22/2012 10:51:43 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: Arthurio

so, there are about 6% still undecided in the Buckeye state.

If Dick Morris’ historical observations are correct and 70% of undecideds go to the challenger most of the time, that means Romney will win 51 to 49 in the end.

But then, why should one want to believe Dick?


4 posted on 10/22/2012 10:53:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I doubt OH has a +4 Rat turnout and +4 women turnout.


5 posted on 10/22/2012 10:57:18 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: KansasGirl

26% union households? Are 26% of households in OH union?


6 posted on 10/22/2012 11:01:34 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: KansasGirl
I doubt OH has a +4 Rat turnout and +4 women turnout.

I don't know about the gender differences in turnout, but D +4 isn't too far off; It was D +8 in 2008, and R +1 in 2010. Democrats have a registration advantage statewide, so a slightly higher Democrat sample makes sense. Also, it is a virtual certainty that Romney will gain more votes from registered Democrats than The Empty Chair will from GOPers, helping to negate the registration advantage.

My own guess is that the turnout will be D +2, and that Romney's victory in Ohio will be virtually identical to the 2004 win by George Bush, about 100,000 votes and a 51-49 margin. I think Romney is ahead by a bit, and that his lead will grow from now until Election Day.

One factor going unnoticed in the media is the intervention of the National Rifle Association; the NRA is behind a huge advertising blitz underway here - I'm seeing many more NRA ads than Romney ads in NW Ohio. NRA's political director believes they can add as much as 2 points to Romney's margin in most states, and they could very well put him over the top here.

7 posted on 10/22/2012 11:11:27 AM PDT by TonyInOhio ("But, the Obama has no clothes!")
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To: Arthurio

You stuck all the bullet points in the headline. LOL! Like a tweet.


8 posted on 10/22/2012 11:25:08 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: TonyInOhio

A further note - the Suffolk Poll out today shows the race tied 47-47, but the Suffolk Poll published 10/20/08 showed Obama winning 51-42, a nine point margin. Obama actually won 51.5-46.91, a margin of just over 4.5%.


9 posted on 10/22/2012 11:25:53 AM PDT by TonyInOhio ("But, the Obama has no clothes!")
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To: BlueStateRightist
O stuck at 47%.

And I hope the irony of that sticks with the Dems for years. ;)
10 posted on 10/22/2012 11:26:36 AM PDT by DaveInDallas
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To: Arthurio

A four percent oversample of Democrats is about right for Ohio. However 2% of the self proclaimed “Likely Voters” said they had never heard of Barack Obama. Seriously if you don’t know who the president is I don’t think you will be getting to the polls on election day.


11 posted on 10/22/2012 11:27:43 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: TonyInOhio

The bottomline, whether nationally, or in each swing state, Obama can not get to 50% - aside from CBS/Q poll with the D+9 sample.


12 posted on 10/22/2012 11:29:00 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: TonyInOhio

Did you see Nate Silver’s post today. He is back pedaling faster then a NFL cornerback.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/22/oct-21-uncertainty-clouds-polling-but-obama-remains-electoral-college-favorite/


13 posted on 10/22/2012 11:34:09 AM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: crosslink

We could use some cornerbacks here in New England.


14 posted on 10/22/2012 11:34:55 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: crosslink
Did you see Nate Silver’s post today.

Once I learned that he worked for Obama at one point, I've ignored him since.

15 posted on 10/22/2012 11:36:10 AM PDT by TonyInOhio ("But, the Obama has no clothes!")
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To: Arthurio

Good poll with lots of internals.

In 2008, Obama received 1.098 votes for every McCain vote.

In this sample, there are 1.146 Obama voters for every McCain voter.

Obama had a margin of 4.59% in ‘08. If this sample were extrapolated onto the ‘08 election results, Obama would have won by 6.67% in ‘08.

Assuming people are accurately reporting who they voted for in ‘08, this poll is likely oversampling Obama voters by about 2 points.

Further, if you look at the undecideds, they are 5%, and of those who indicate who they are likely to vote for, Romney gets twice as many as Obama.

In short, the poll suggests Romney might be slightly ahead right now, and that undecided will likely break is way.

This looks like a 3-4 point Romney win, assuming current trajectories and the accuracy of the poll.


16 posted on 10/22/2012 11:39:52 AM PDT by Chameleon
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To: TonyInOhio

I hope you’re right the NRA adds two points.


17 posted on 10/22/2012 11:41:50 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: TonyInOhio

Once I learned that he worked for Obama at one point, I’ve ignored him since.

He was leaked internal polls from the Obama people in 2008, he sucked in 2010. Just love to see him slowly turning into 2012’s Zoqby.


18 posted on 10/22/2012 11:41:57 AM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: TonyInOhio

One more tidbit from the Suffolk internals (they are really good at publishing all of their data): in this pool of 600 Likely voters, 47% of them voted for Obama in 2008, and only 41% voted for McCain, with 10% not voting or refusing to answer. Given that 2008 was an historic, “change” election that would have pushed Democrat turnout to record highs, the odds are good that those persons saying they will vote this time but did not vote for Obama in 2008 are not going to show up to pull the lever for him this time - most of them, I would bet, will vote for Romney.


19 posted on 10/22/2012 11:42:52 AM PDT by TonyInOhio ("But, the Obama has no clothes!")
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To: SeekAndFind

I consider a state officially “called” when Suffolk pulls out of it.

Let’s hope they pull out of Ohio soon.


20 posted on 10/22/2012 12:02:47 PM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: JediJones

WhooHoo!


21 posted on 10/22/2012 12:05:56 PM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (Yuri Bezmenov (KGB Defector) - "Kick The Communists Out of Your Govt. & Don't Accept Their Goodies.")
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To: JediJones

Please folks...skip a meal and fast and pray for Romney today and if you can all the way til election day. In the word of God He promises to deliver us from our enemies if we humble ourselves, pray and seek after Him, then He will hear and deliver us from our enemies!


22 posted on 10/22/2012 12:11:43 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: TonyInOhio
2008 was an historic, “change” election that would have pushed Democrat turnout to record highs

Yes and I think Dem enthusiasm is at an ebb low right now. I've never seen anything like it. I'm in a township, city, and county that always vote Dem. Four years ago there were Obama signs everywhere. It was distressing just to drive through the neighborhood. Now there isn't a single Obama sign. No signs for any Dem candidate. None along the roads, on phone poles, nada.

Four years ago OFA was everywhere. No sign of them this year although a local progressive group is handing out propaganda. No sign of a conservative ground game but robocalls are so frequent it's obnoxious.

I question the accuracy of most polls this year because of the unprecedented level of bullying we've seen from the administration and other dems in power. I suspect many voters are reluctant to give their political views to a stranger on the other end of the phone.

23 posted on 10/22/2012 12:43:32 PM PDT by PeevedPatriot ("A wise man's heart inclines him toward the right, but a fool's heart toward the left."--Eccl 10:2)
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To: SoFloFreeper

The NRA had better redeem itself after supporting Dingy Harry in 2010.


24 posted on 10/22/2012 1:24:39 PM PDT by rfp1234
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To: crosslink

Nate Silver is a democrap hack who worked for Kos. So big deal, he predicted an Obama win. He is a novice in the political world.


25 posted on 10/22/2012 1:35:13 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: crosslink

Is that right? He got inside information in 2008, in which they crow about. You can find diddly squat on his 2010 predictions, which I assume were way off the mark.


26 posted on 10/22/2012 1:38:37 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: KC_Conspirator

I know he’s a hack, I posted his link because he is back pedaling and will crash and burn because he sucks at his craft. He had poor predictions in 2010 up until the last week when he changed all his predictions and was still off by 10 house seats and 4 senate seats.


27 posted on 10/22/2012 3:59:57 PM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: crosslink
“Just love to see him slowly turning into 2012’s Zoqby.”

My thoughts exactly. If Gallup is even close to accurate Silver will be a laughingstock like Zogby.

28 posted on 10/22/2012 4:04:49 PM PDT by don'tbedenied
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