Posted on 10/22/2012 1:19:44 PM PDT by blam
GARY SHILLING: A Housing Recovery? You've Got To Be Kidding Me
Henry Blodget
Oct. 22, 2012, 1:46 PM
Gary Shilling on housing... No, it's not a recovery.
(Click to the site to see a video/interview)
Yahoo producer Morgan Korn:
Housing data this week continue to point to a market recovery.
Housing starts surged to 4-year high last month the Commerce Department reported. New home construction increased 15% in September compared to August and building permits — a number that reflects future building — jumped 11.6% last month. Housing starts reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 872,000 units in September and single-family housing construction last month grew 11% to an annual rate of 603,000. New home building grew in three of four U.S. regions.
Forecasting firm IHS Global Insight called the housing starts number a "blowout." The National Association of Home Builders said its monthly builder sentiment survey was 41 in October, the highest level since June 2006. A reading below 50 represents negative sentiment about the market but the index has risen steadily over the past year.
Rising home prices and year-over-year increases in new and existing home sales have contributed to the turnaround in the housing market.
The latest positive numbers in the housing market have not persuaded economist Gary Shilling, a longtime housing bear, to change his downbeat forecasts. Shilling holds fast to his prediction that home prices will fall another 20% and dismisses talk that the market has bottomed. He cites the high number of shadow inventory in the market as support for his pessimistic housing thesis.
"Excess inventory is the mortal enemy of home prices," Shilling says in an interview with The Daily Ticker.
Shadow inventory refers to the number of distressed homes that have not yet been listed by a realtor but are expected
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
” New home construction increased 15% in September”
115 new homes, compared to 100 : )
What percentage of the “new homes” is in the state of North Dakota where there is a oil boom going on amid a housing crisis because of the floods from two years ago?
I’m sure it matters. How much, I don’t know.
The housing market can’t improve until interest rates are allowed to rise.
The government could not make the payments on the debt if interest rates rise...so, we're stuck. If the economy starts doing good, were screwed...if it doesn't, we're screwed.
There you have it.
(Economic analysis by a retired chip-maker)
“The housing market can’t improve until interest rates are allowed to rise.”
How is it again that paying more is a good thing?
The housing market won’t improve until the employment rate rises to the point that people actually have paychecks to be able to make house payments with.
There has to be money available to lend. Would you invest in a mortgage bank right now?
Hell, yes! I do, in fact, invest in banking. Buy cheap. Never buy high when everyone else is buying.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.