Could Sandy Target Northeast U.S.?

Weather Underground ^ | 10/24/2012 | Bryan Norcoss

[dirtboy]

GFS (white track) is now taking it into New England. Other models are taking it into Jersey or Delaware.

[dirtboy]

Ouch

[thackney]

Thanks for that. I had not seen a prediction going onshore.

Too far away in time to have a lot of confidence in any of them.

Cheers

[Theophilus]

Looks like this tells the tale.

[rwfromkansas]

With the latest modeling, I am very concerned this will be STRONG when it hits and give Obama a nice boost at the polls.

I am worried it could help him significantly.

[JediJones]

I thought bad weather helped Republicans. It would make turnout look more like 2010, where the dedicated voters show up, not the fly-by-night types who only show up in presidential years.

[tomkat]

+1

[Homer_J_Simpson]

Here is the NY Times coverage of an earlier hurricane that hit the northeast the previous day. On image 4/4 there is a map that shows the track.

Long Island Express of September 22, 1938.

[novemberslady]

bkmk

[dirtboy]

Some of the models are approaching insanity - a 925 mb low hitting NJ:

[deport]

Still days away before it makes landfall. Is the Atlantic waters warm enough for strong intensification?

Less than Hurricane strength under this projection when it gets to the northeast.

[dirtboy]

Pressure measured by Hurricane Hunter dropsonde was 964 mb, or on the edge of Cat 3.

[novemberslady]

Batten down the hatches.

I'll pray for a curve out to sea...

[rwfromkansas]

That could.

I am talking about the “Obama rescuing us” non-stop TV coverage of the savior after the storm.

That said, the hurricane hitting New Orleans earlier in the fall surprisingly did not help Obama at all.

[colinhester]

Thanks for pointing out wxrisk. Never heard of it but now I’m hooked. Great facebook feed as well. He just posted why he thinks the GFS model is incorrect and pointed out its shortcomings. Very cool!!!

[MissMagnolia]

You’re welcome! Definitely keeping an eye on Sandy.

[WorkerbeeCitizen]

bumpity bump

[alancarp]

Nice to see both the GFS model and the NHC getting with the program. Not so nice to see that the NE could end up with a surprise monster storm. Here's a batch of Joe Bastardi tweets from early this morning:

@BigJoeBastardi
Hit from southeast reduces time over cool water.Baroclinic process leads to super hybrid. Even Brazilian models have 956 mb prs NYC
Weatherbell FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.. Have had the "trapping" idea now since weekend.
If I am right, biggest question :What swear word will Chris Christie use to get people to evacuate.Storm could be worse ever in mid/n atl
Dont forget the heavy snow on the western side.
If you see anyone talking about the storm surge up delaware bay, and flooding coming down .. that was the subject I wrote about many yrs ago
Window of escape closing.. only true question may be where not, if. All areas NC to Mass likely to have hurricane conditions!
GFDL brings hurricane to Delmarva.. sub 940 mb

He also has an updated forecast map with changes mostly confined to the snowfall portion: he's thinking possible heavy snows along the entire western side of the Appalachian chain... mentioned 2-3 feet in WV. Snow forecast area includes the western 50% of PA, western 30% of NY, eastern 70% of WV, and mountain areas of E. Tenn.

Otherwise still has NYC as the landfall point on Tuesday with an 80-85mph hurricane.

[dirtboy]

Hey, NN, want to start a Sandy live thread?

[Not A Snowbird]

While I truly appreciate your noble quest - you would have to go right over me to do so...........

Hmm. I wouldn't want to take out any fine FReepers in my quest to annihilate DC. Maybe I'll just take out Cuba.