Skip to comments.Virginia Early Voting Tallies Show Trouble for Obama (Cook Political Report data)
Posted on 10/24/2012 1:05:44 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
This is techinically a vanity post, but newsworthy, all the same. Dave Wasserman is one of the head number crunchers at Cook Political Report, and he has been tweeting results from Virigina's early voting period. The numbers look good for Romney and very, very bad for Obama. Here are a several of his tweets with the raw data:
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won: http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/sbe_csv/STATS/
Overall, early vote up 9.4% across the board in VA vs this point in '08, but this 14% disparity very troubling #s for @BarackObama
3 of 4 top DECREASES in VA early voting vs '08: 1) Richmond City (-16.8%) 3) Arlington County (-14.0%) 4) Charlottesville City (-10.5%)
In VA's McCain localities, early vote = 95,744 (vs 80,881 at this pt in '08). VA's Obama localities = 152,084 (vs 145,673 in '08)
Huge drop-offs in Richmond, Arlington & C'ville indicative of understandable (yet troubling for Ds) decline in Af-Am, yuppie & college vote
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Fairfax County (61% Obama) is DOWN 4.0% vs. this point in '08, even though statewide, early voting UP 9.4%
Buh bye Obama.
The Poll Ping list will find this interesting. In essence, the Obama campaign is relying on early voting to swamp Romney’s margins, and the data coming out of Virginia shows it ain’t happening.
The metro DC folks are going Green and Libertarian this year.
I was told by some that they cannot vote for Romney but won’t vote for Obama hence the third party votes.
Ruh Roh.. I guess folk do care about who sat in the chair last.. and why they’re not there now.
sidenote.. Do not quote me! :-] I heard something about Florida early voting somewhere .. either radio or tv can’t recall.. 5 point advantage Mitt..
VA and FL are done deals. I’m worried about OH.
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African American turnout this time might hold some surprises.
Percentages of unequal totals can be deceiving. On raw numbers, ballots from GOP counties are up 15,000 while ballots from Dem counties are up 6,500. Of course those extra votes from Dem counties could all be Romney votes. Just saying . . .
VA early voting info.
Obama’s pretty much pulled out of western VA. He’s not on AM radio at all, while Romney and pro-Romney PAC’s are running at least 10 ads per hour on AM radio - a lot of it energy/coal related.
I admit I don’t watch much prime time TV, but when I do, I’m not seeing much Obama going on there either.
I’m sure Obama’s still on the air in northern VA.
Wow you’re right.
I have a friend (good guy, just hopelessly naive) working for OFA in Virginia. Recently he hasn’t really been wanting to talk about work, or the Presidential election.
They’ll probably stay home in droves.
They won’t dare vote AGAINST 0bama, but they won’t bother to show up to vote FOR 0bama.
“Obamas pretty much pulled out of western VA. “
Being a resident of Virginia (and a voter) it will be nice not to be ashamed of which direction my state votes for the president this election. We are red basically accept for the Blacksburg/Va Tech liberal area and the Richmond area. They have as many non-Virginia born residents as the rest of the state does REAL Virginians.
The % of turnout vs 08 could be quite interesting.
That’s ok, Patrick Moran is on the job.
The % of turnout vs 08 could be quite interesting.
Virginia Early Vote (con't): Obama drop-off just half of the equation. Let's take a look at the top 25 localities with an increase...
Coal-heavy SW VA in Top 10 early vote surges: 5) Dickenson (+66.8%) 6) Buchanan (+63.6%), 10) Bland (+47.4%). Apathy in '08, anger in '12.
I wonder if Valerie Jarrett is going to follow the worst family to Hawaii?
Charlottesville/UVA - a bastion of conservatism. </sarcasm>
5 to 10 years from now, Jarrett and Axelrod will be running Obama’s campaign to be president of Kenya. Hawaii is their jumping off point.
Now be aware, we are going to vote Romney but where is the GOTV for the R's?
>> those extra votes from Dem counties could all be Romney votes <<
Good point. Moreover, my household can report that at least two of the early votes in Arlington County were for the GOP!
VIRGINIA: In-person absentee voting UP 29.8% in McCain localities vs. this pt in '08, up just 7.7% in Obama localities. Hmm...
VIRGINIA: Mail-in absentee voting up 12.9% in McCain localities vs. this pt in '08, up 2.5% in Obama localities. Slightly smaller gap.
Which is why Romney needs to accelerate in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan - contingencies.
Move in, move the needle, force Obama to react — and then drain him dry.
Maybe Hawaii won’t allow extradition...
A Facebook friend in Florida doing the same. Has virtually stopped talking about the campaign on Facebook compared to a few months ago.
OFA has called my house twice lately. I don’t answer any calls anymore unless it’s family. I think they are trying to get ahold of my daughter. LOL She is more conservative than me, college degree, and one of those unemployed. I bet she would give them an earful LOL
Charlie Cook has been slow to share that this is going to be a big Republican year.
He will probably show the real numbers the day before the election just so he dosen’t look like a complete idiot.
Yea, baby! I just voted early in Loudoun County so that I can be a poll watcher on Election Day. Can’t wait to have a president who takes security briefings every 9/11 - instead of going on “Pimp with a Limp!”
I think a 40 oz and a blunt is their jumping off point but whatever....
Correct. He’s all over NOVA radio.
Most of the readio ads are focused on abortion, helathcare, and feature female voiceovers
Ohio remains the big nut to crack, and, from my electoral vote analysis, could possibly play the same role Florida played in 2000: the Ohio vote could decide the presidency after all other states are settled. Luckily, the Ohio Secretary of State is a Republican, which should make for a fairer vote count and/or recount if necessary. All election lawyers should be making reservations for Columbus just in case.
The Rep GOTV is very active and sophisticated in VA. I am part of the effort. You need to get in touch with the Republican chairman of your county committee and express your concerns.
All the gotv in the world won’t help you if folks don’t want to vote for your candidate.
From my view in tidewater, there is nowhere near the enthusiasm for hussein as there was 4 years ago.
Upshot: VA goes red. Very red. And people will be wondering why they thought VA was a swing state in the first place.
Being there is no early voting here in VA, I’d take this with a grain of salt...
Good to hear this. I was just sick when my home state went blue in 2008.
It isn’t going to happen in VA because THERE IS NO EARLY VOTING HERE
Newbie, this is absolutely totally false. VA does have early in person absentee ballot voting.
How do I know? I am a poll observer at a poll and have already voted. In-person absentee voting is up in VA. Reps are much more motivated and they are showing up in greater numbers than ever before. The GOP has a major effort to get out the in-person absentee ballots that heretofore has been dominated by the Dems.
We are telling our folks not to use the mail in ballots that can be too easily invalidated on a techincality.
STOP SPREADING THIS FALSEHOOD. IT IS AN OUTRIGHT LIE, NEWBIE.
If you are a Democrat and there are troubling data coming from Charlottesville, well, you have big troubles.
I love what’s going on in Virginia.
You are full of crap. No early voting in VA other than mail in absentee and you need a valid excuse. You stop spreading lies.
YOU ARE FULL OF BS. THERE IS IN-PERSON ABSENTEE BALLOTING GOING ON IN VA SINCE LAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SATELLITE STATION I WORK AT IN FAIRFAX COUNTY, WE HAVE HAD OVER 3000 VOTING INCLUDING MY FAMILY AND ME. THE REPS ARE MAKING A CONCERTED EFFORT TO GET OUR FOLKS TO THE POLLS AND IT IS WORKING.
STOP SPREADING THE LIES. WE HAVE IN PERSON ABSENTEE VOTING IN VA. YES, YOU MUST PROVIDE A REASON AS TO WHY YOU CAN'T MAKE IT TO THE POLLS ON ELECTION DAY, BUT THE REALITY IS THAT YOU USE A HOST OF REASONS AND NO ELECTION OFFICER WILL CHALLENGE YOU. THE DEMS HAVE BEEN DOING IT FOR YEARS AND NOW FINALLY THE GOP HAS WOKE UP.