Skip to comments.Vanity: Early voting statistics (abbreviated tonite - OH, NV, IA); My crack analysis
Posted on 10/24/2012 9:57:16 PM PDT by Ravi
(Excerpt) Read more at docs.google.com ...
First Ohio, as of tonite, per the counties that are reporting both 2008 and 2012 information (53 out of 88 counties), Republicans are only 3000 behind their TOTAL ballot requests for 2008. And there are two weeks left. Repeat only 3000.
Dems OTH are 120,000 BEHIND their 2008 totals. I sense a disruption in the force here. Many dems are sitting this one out is my best guess. Cuyahoga has come through for them (high AA population) but Franklin has not (college population). Other counties have not come through for them either as best I can tell: Licking, Lucas, Montgomery, Pickaway, Richland, Ross, Stark, Summit, Trunbull, Tuscarawas, Union, Wayne. Why these counties? Possibly bitter clingers but just my guess - others can elucidate me on this. But the fact remains other than Cuyahoga, they are severely underperforming their 2008 totals.
A couple of caveats again: we are missing 35 counties that have incomplete info (most of these are repub leaning but a couple are dem also like Lorain and Mahoning). We need all the county information for both this year and 2008 for all counties to have a complete picture. Nonetheless, with 53 counties, the trend is real.
Also for Cuyahoga, republicans are overperforming also. They are 15,000 ahead of 2008 - incredible numbers! Because if we keep it relatively close in Cuyahoga, the rest of the state seems to be falling into place. Right now, dems have a lead in Cuyahoga of 80,000 and my best educated guess right now is they end up with 180,000 lead on election nite there. That will not be enough to overcome the rest of the state. We keep it under 200,000 here - we win plain and simple. 200k-240k difference: I think we are slightly ahead. Over 240k, I think we would be slightly behind.
Anyway lots of fun with numbers there.
NV: most interested in bellwether Washoe (Reno).
Obama beat McCain statewide 55 to 43 and also in Washoe 55 to 43. In 2008, dems were 47% of early voters and reps 35%. Early voting in Washoe accounted for 64% of the total vote.
Currently as of tonite, dems have been 44% of the early voters and reps 40%. This has closed gradually the past two days and this trend is extremely favorable. Still somewhat early though. We are at 16% of 2008 turnout thus far. Watch this track.
IA: Very close. 542,000 ballots requested: Dems 44% and Reps 31%. Much better ratio than 08 where it was 47 to 29. @adrian_gray feels this is tracking close to 2004. We'll see. One difference is there are more registered repubs there than dems now so they just have to vote early or on election day and we should be fine. My guess here is half the vote in IA will be early about 750k or thereabouts.
Anyway fire away.
Ravi - Excellent analysis! Thanks for posting!!
Thanks Ravi. I enjoy these threads.
Most Republicans I know prefer to vote in-person, election day. I’d be one of them if I didn’t live in a hellhole mail-only state.
If enthusiasm is great, then making sure the Republican-Democrat improvement is big enough to overcome the final Republican-Democrat vote totals in 2008 matters a lot less.
Have you crunched these hard numbers against polls showing Obama with gigantic early voter leads? In many cases, the poll shows far more early voters than can be verified by hard states from the SOS office
IMO, just because a Dem requests a ballot, does not necessarily mean he will vote for the Dem candidates- MANY of them likely have “voters’ remorse”;)
It is nice that you do this. I get too confused when I look at the spreadsheets since I really don’t know OH or the other states well enough to make heads or tails of it without a lot of study.
I show as a rat because in 08 I wanted to mess with the primary (a la Rush).
But this so called rat already sent her ballot in for Romney. There must be a bunch like me.
It’s patently ridiculous like with the Time poll showing Obama ahead 60 to 30 with early voters from earlier today. Right now with requests, we are only 6% behind. 29 to 23 approximately. 48% are unaffiliateds. So basically for O to lead 60 to 30 he mops up almost all the unaffiliateds which is absurd just on its face. A lot of unaffiliateds are dems are repubs of course who have not voted in primaries before but they are not all closet dems - that makes no sense at all.
Yes how many chaos voters are there for either side? I do wonder that. I figured it was miniscule but I could be wrong.
The reason such polls are absurd is because Romney is getting three things: a majority of the white vote, a majority of men and a super-majority of independents.
Its mathematically impossible for Obama to win without them! The reason the media calls it a horse race is besides propping up Obama, they need to keep people interested. If they say the election is over, then no one will pay any attention to what they write.
Romney will have days when its close but no reasonable person at this point has any doubt that he will win. And the much touted October Surprise is a dud. Its clear sailing from here onwards.
Pray for the future of America!
I think we are at 1.6 mil absentee/early vote requests. I predict final turnout about 5.5 mil. Not all of these requests have turned in their ballots or early voted - about 800,000 have turned in ballots or voted early. That is a turnout roughly of 14.5% as of tonite. Some of these polls show early vote at 20% as of a few days ago - obviously an error there.
Something to cheer you up.
Liberals like Stu Rothenberg are already yammering the election is a toss-up!
They’re in full denial mode now.
Great work as always, Ravi. I’m feeling hopeful...though I won’t really breathe easy until Obama gives his concession speech, LOL.
Getting liberals to look at things objectively is very difficult.
O will keep his base and even though the economy is bad, he’s a failure and has no plan for the future, people are still going to vote for him.
You can do everything wrong in this country and still be rewarded for it. And your Obama voters still think its “all Bush’s fault!”
If you had to bet your life on it, do you REALLY think Romney wins Ohio?
It is so hard for me to be optomistic because I just feel like he has always gotten away with EVERYTHING!
Thanks for the great info.
I can only speak to Richland (and Lucas’ demographics are similar to Richland as is Crawford) since I grew up there and my dad still lives in the area.
Heavily unionized (auto, steel)and thus lots of Democrats.
And it is generational union mentality.
These communities have been decimated by this administration and haven’t been saved by their unions.
Many previous Odumbo voters are disgusted by him and will not pull the lever for him. I doubt they could bring themselves to vote Republican, so they are probably just sitting it out. That’s my two cents:)
Why the heck are your posting this! Just kidding. Why would anyone have an objection. I find it facinating reading. I must have missed the first act.
bump for later
California is in play.
It would be sweet to see the Kenyan lose CA.
It would be sweet to see the Kenyan lose CA. Either way, I’m glad he has to spend money here.
Strong Christian!!! Democrat and Christian just don't make sense. Very different platforms that are not compatible.
This is cool. I’m pleased there are folks like you who are “all ate up with” the analysis so you can educate those of us who don’t have time or skills to do so.
Electorally speaking the Tick household is split this year: Mrs. Tick voted early for RR, and I’m voting for RR on election day.
Mrs. Tick chose to vote early because she wanted to make sure her vote is counted, in case she gets hit by a bus before 11/6. My competing strategy is to stay out from in front of buses until after Nov. 6. :-)
INTERESTING OBSERVATION: “Cuyahoga has come through for them (high AA population) but Franklin has not (college population).” If ANY SIGNIFICANT PART of Obama’s shaky coalition (Minorities, Jews, silly yutes, gays, public sector unions, trial lawyers, etc) gets lazy on Election Day he won’t make his numbers... maybe the kids’ll come through for us and stay home!
>> California is in play.
TMI. What goes on in y’alls hot tubs should STAY in y’alls hot tubs. :-)
So what’s the weather report for Election Day? Only the most motivated people will get out and vote.
My WAG is 13-15%.
Let me see if I understand this.
Your spreadsheet shows that even though their total requests are down, they still lead (more Dems than GOP).
From what I understand, Ohio is about 2/5 each of Dem vs. GOP (the rest Independent?).
So if the “enthusiasm gap” is the same at the ballot box as it is at the mailbox, Romney has a good shot at winning there.
That is, ignoring the fraud factor (which could be huge given all the Obama slush money out there).
I know this takes plenty of time. It is much appreciated.
“And the much touted October Surprise is a dud.”
I expect something dirtier than that, like some skank saying the day before the election that Romney fathered a child with her and then retracting it the day after the election.
Thanks for the updates. I’m particularly interested in Ohio as it is my former home state (in liberal Cuyahoga County, no less). C’mon, Buckeye State, don’t fail us now!
For the record, I voted early yesterday here in TN, across the board R with the exception of the 3 city commissioners which had no party affiliation listed. I just picked the 3 that didn’t want to raise taxes, and didn’t want to build a library. I don’t need a library, dang it!
Question on voter ID in Ohio - is it required to show a government-issued photo ID upon voting? I recall the last election when the lib SOS apparently lifted a lot of the rules and there were reportedly busloads of voters voting in Ohio that didn’t necessarily live in the state. As I was transitioning from Ohio to Tennessee at the time, I could technically (but not legally) have voted twice in Ohio as well as here in TN because I had legit utility bills from two addresses from within the prior year and a half.
I still think that massive fraud put Obambi over the top in Ohio in 2008. There just can’t be that many stupid people in the buckeye state.
People are complaining? We are starved for this stuff. Some folks obviously don't get what FR is about.
Cheers and thanks!
Indeed. 60-30 silly. Good analysis. Adrian. Gray said he’s “bearish” on NV and thinks gap widening. I can’t tell cause Washoe looks so good.
I am a chaos voter in Ohio but that comes with much harassment I told the person who called I was voting for Obama but voted a Straight Republican ticket so maybe their internals reflect many “democrats” like me boy are they in for an ugly surprise November 6 Romney/Ryan
Some Christians can’t vote for Romney but won’t vote for Obama they are writing in Jesus I kid you not my cousin sent me a link to this guy named Bill Keller site who is asking people to write in Jesus Why would they do that they don’t understand the stakes Obama has to go NOW
this the link
Yeah he was bearish on NV. But I don’t know. Focus on washoe and let’s see where NV plays out. We are definitely much better compared to 08 but then again that 12 point deficit from 08 is a tall hill. I think we can do it.
I’m not sure about Obama, but I KNOW Jesus is not a natural born citizen. These people should pray for wisdom.
If he does not, many of our lives may be forfeited anyway. It may become time to feed and water the tree of liberty.
Early voting is fine with me EXCEPT when figures are released before the polls close on election day. That simply gives the RATs and indication of how many votes they have to manufacture or steal to win.
Washoe is the bellwether not Clark. Clark and the rest of the state pretty much cancel each other out. Margins in clark are smaller than 08 also already. Keep that in mind.
They hate OBAMA, BUT will allow it to happen. Christian KOOKS, and we see them in FR all the time.
My mother once told me, "Many people become So Spiritually Minded, they are of NO EARTHLY GOOD. I know some of these types.
The Lord told us to OCCUPY
Thanks, Ravi. Great analysis, as usual. Please keep these coming. :)