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Daily Swing State Tracking Poll Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 46%
Rasmussen ^ | 10/25 | Rasmussen

Posted on 10/25/2012 7:12:13 AM PDT by tatown

Thursday, October 25, 2012

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.

Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

This is now the third day in a row - and the fifth time in the past six days - that Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states. This survey is conducted on a rolling seven-day basis, and most of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of Monday night’s presidential debate. Romney has now held a modest lead for 14 of the last 17 days; Obama was ahead twice, and the candidates ran even once.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: Ohio; US: Virginia; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; poll
Romney at 50% is becoming etched in stone.
1 posted on 10/25/2012 7:12:17 AM PDT by tatown
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To: SoftwareEngineer; Perdogg; LS; Ravi; HamiltonJay; nhwingut

Ping


2 posted on 10/25/2012 7:14:08 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: tatown

Steady as she goes.....

Internals look good for the Governor too...


3 posted on 10/25/2012 7:14:17 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: tatown
Nice to know, but I don't see much use for a composite "swing state" set of numbers.

The individual state numbers are all that matters.

If Romney wins Florida by ten, but loses Ohio by one, the plus nine is worth less than a cup of coffee.

4 posted on 10/25/2012 7:18:38 AM PDT by dead (It ain't over until the phone lady sings.)
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To: tatown

Sweet. It’s definitely a better feeling being up a few than down a few like back through all of September.


5 posted on 10/25/2012 7:21:19 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: tatown

This shows the brilliance of Romney’s strategy re: Libya. Letting events unfold will only work to his advantage, while launching an attack on Obama (which would have given Obama center stage to deny, lie, shift blame, and muddle the issue) might have backfired bigtime.

Good CEOs know how to pick their battles. Timing is key also, as there is still plenty of time for Obama to sustain further damage while remaining above the fray.

Attacking Obama is raw meat for us, but noone is going to switch and vote for Obama because of anything Romney said or failed to say in the 3rd debate. On the other hand, the polling data indicates that a majority of undecided voters saw Romney as a leader who could become the next President. The 3rd debate wasn’t about “us” - it was about them.


6 posted on 10/25/2012 7:21:32 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: tatown

What this is starting to say to me is that people have made up their minds and this is the way the election will end up.
Obama has a real problem as it seems as if a couple points are bouncing for him. Which means a few are still considering voting.


7 posted on 10/25/2012 7:24:15 AM PDT by crz
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To: tatown

I was reading into why the Suffolk guy, a couple of weeks, back called FL, VA and NC for Romney - despite polls showing the race in Virginia only 2-3 points.

It wasn’t because overwhelming great polls for Romney (i.e. 50-44, etc). His statistical theory is that an incumbent who cannot get to 49.5 in a state poll is going to lose. And that’s why he backed out of VA, FL and NC. He said if he sees Obama move up to 49-50 then he’d put them back in play. Today’s Rasmussen VA poll has it 50-48 for Romney, so again, Obama is under that number.

I think that’s important to understand. Morris goes by same theory. For example, when Obama leads 47-45, Morris calls that 53-47 for Romney. With the majority of undecideds breaking for Romney (although I think that’s way too generous).

Anyhow, in short, a poll showing Obama up 48-46 is different than a poll showing Romney up 48-46, according to this theory. It’s an interesting theory to remember down the stretch.


8 posted on 10/25/2012 7:25:49 AM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: tatown

If Romney leads by four in all swing states, he is leading in Ohio.


9 posted on 10/25/2012 7:38:08 AM PDT by liberlog
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To: bigbob

R and R are focused like a laser beam on jobs and the economy. All of the other issues like energy, foreign policy, debt and deficits, etc. are the spokes in a wheel that always lead to the hub which is jobs/economy.

They’ve staked their entire campaign from day one on this issue because that’s where Obama is the most vulnerable. You find the weakest spot of the defense, then you hit ‘em over and over again until you push them back and break through. They’ve broken through. The field is not yet clear for a touchdown, but it’s getting there.

To pull back and probe the line in another spot hoping for a breakthrough at this point in the game is foolish.

They’ll win or lose with their game plan. I can’t think of another plan that would be better.


10 posted on 10/25/2012 7:38:49 AM PDT by randita
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To: tatown

11 posted on 10/25/2012 7:40:17 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: dead

Same here.

It’s a positive trend and that’s good but seems utterly meaningless as far as electoral votes are concerned.


12 posted on 10/25/2012 7:53:25 AM PDT by Fightin Whitey
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To: bigbob

Obama watched them die. He watched four Americans get slaughtered and did not lift a finger to help.


13 posted on 10/25/2012 8:02:29 AM PDT by SC_Pete
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To: dead

It is uncanny how the Democrat in Ohio seems to get the same share in the state as he does in the general (or slightly less). In other words, if Obama loses the national popular vote, history says he is toast in Ohio.

51-49 Mitt take Ohio.


14 posted on 10/25/2012 8:04:05 AM PDT by Tulane
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To: nhwingut

If that’s true, then why isn’t Suffolk pulling out of OH too? They just polled OH and have it tied at R47/O47....


15 posted on 10/25/2012 8:04:13 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: tatown; LS; nhwingut; Ravi; Perdogg; InterceptPoint; SoFloFreeper; HamiltonJay; jrg

Sneak peek at VA:

O:51 R: 46 with leaners
O:48 R: 45 without leaners

The sample is +7 Democrat

O and R are tied with Independents


16 posted on 10/25/2012 8:34:59 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: nhwingut; LS; Ravi; tatown; Perdogg; InterceptPoint; HamiltonJay; jrg

^^^^^ I meant PA not VA

Sneak peek at PA from Rasmussen:

O:51 R: 46 with leaners
O:48 R: 45 without leaners

The sample is +7 Democrat

O and R are tied with Independents


17 posted on 10/25/2012 8:40:44 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: AngelesCrestHighway

Excellent


18 posted on 10/25/2012 8:42:14 AM PDT by Obadiah (The corrupt MSM is the enemy of the American people.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Uggg


19 posted on 10/25/2012 8:46:12 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: tatown

He meant PA not VA. I know freaked me out too.


20 posted on 10/25/2012 8:53:01 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: tatown

He meant PA not VA. I know freaked me out too.


21 posted on 10/25/2012 8:54:41 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: SoftwareEngineer

No way they are tied with Independents, Independents are going strong for Romney in every poll.


22 posted on 10/25/2012 8:55:21 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Ravi

Yeah I know but I was hoping for more from PA. If you go back and look at past Rasmussen numbers for PA, other than 1 poll which showed Obama up 11, Mitt has gained NO traction there over the past few weeks.


23 posted on 10/25/2012 8:56:11 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: SoftwareEngineer
The sample is +7 Democrat

Is that a reasonable sample for PA?

24 posted on 10/25/2012 9:02:14 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: bigbob

My sister was saying that she heard the Reagan debate or interview that Romney is using to model his response to Libya and Romney is almost using the exact same words and phrases that Reagan used in regard to Carter’s hostage crisis.

Last night, on Fox, Condeleeza Rice was interviewed about the Benghazi attack and she did the same thing, even using the same words that we have heard from the Obama administration.


25 posted on 10/25/2012 9:21:01 AM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans diedI)
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To: nhwingut
If 49.5 is the magic number, RCP today has O with 253 EVs.
26 posted on 10/25/2012 9:23:03 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: tatown

So 3/7ths of this poll is post third debate. Looks like Barry didn’t get the bounce the media was working for.


27 posted on 10/25/2012 9:34:04 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Good God. Seriously, you gave me a heart attack there...with Virginia that wide, I was freaking.


28 posted on 10/25/2012 12:40:26 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: tatown
Swing state voters: you need to make up your mind!
29 posted on 10/25/2012 1:39:08 PM PDT by johnsondavid841
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.

- I just watched a former CIA man speak to Neil Cavuto on Fox News Channel about Obama, Paneta, Hillary, etc. -

- “BAD” and “SILLY” people who just watched for hours (in “real time”) as Ambassador Stevens and three others were tortured and died and - and King Obama & his Court did nothing to help them or to rescue them -

.

Can you imagine General George Patton saying this to General Eisenhower when US Airbourne soldiers were encircled by the Germans and freezing:

“Golly Ike!

If I take our tankers to save them we might lose some of my men!

Let’s just wait and HOPE things improve and maybe even CHANGE for the better!

Anyone want another of my beers while we eat this delicious tender Kobi beef?”

.


30 posted on 10/25/2012 2:21:25 PM PDT by devolve ( ---- ---- ---- -CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER- ---- ---- ---- ---- John Belusi ---- ----)
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To: Tulane

“It is uncanny how the Democrat in Ohio seems to get the same share in the state as he does in the general (or slightly less). In other words, if Obama loses the national popular vote, history says he is toast in Ohio.

51-49 Mitt take Ohio.”

Agreed. The filter nationally does work its way down into the state level and Ohio is the benchmark. I’ve said NH is the bellwether and hope it proves out.

I’m feeling Ohio will go for Romney and in the end it won’t be the difference. There will another state or two that falls if this momentum continues.

You have to tip your hat to Romney and his staff. A lot of folks were hitting the panic button but they didn’t. Very impressive.


31 posted on 10/25/2012 5:48:13 PM PDT by romanesq (For George Soros so loved the world, he gave us Obama)
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To: crz

BO and the Mooch are on their knees begging people to vote early. Is something bad about BO coming out that they already know about....makes me wonder.


32 posted on 10/25/2012 7:49:52 PM PDT by dandiegirl
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