Posted on 10/25/2012 7:17:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Back in May, I wrote a column laying out possible scenarios for the 2012 campaign different from the conventional wisdom that it would be a long, hard slog through a fixed list of target states, like the race in 2004.
I thought alternatives were possible because partisan preferences in the half dozen years before 2004 were very stable, while partisan preferences over the last half dozen years have been anything but.
Now, after Mitt Romney’s big victory in the October 3 debate and his solid performances in the October 16 and 22 debates, there is evidence that two of my alternative scenarios may be unfolding.
The list of target states has certainly not been fixed. Barack Obama’s campaign spent huge sums on anti-Romney ads to create a firewall in three states that the president won narrowly in 2008 — Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. But post-debate polling shows Romney ahead in Florida and tied in Virginia.
National Journal’s Major Garrett reported last week that Obama strategist David Plouffe omitted Florida and Virginia in a list of key states but mentioned Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Obama carried the latter three by ten, ten, and twelve points respectively in 2008.
So much for the firewall. In addition, polling shows Romney ahead in Colorado, which Obama carried by nine points last time, and the race closing in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, which Obama carried by 14, 10, and 16 points respectively.
That tends to validate my alternative scenario that Mitt Romney would fare much better in affluent suburbs than have the previous Republican nominees since 1992, and would run more like George Bush did in 1988. The only way Pennsylvania and Michigan can be close is if Obama’s support in affluent Philadelphia and Detroit suburbs has melted away.
This also helps explain why Romney still narrowly trails in Ohio polls. Affluent suburban counties cast about one-quarter of the votes in Pennsylvania and Michigan but only one-eighth in Ohio.
A pro-Romney swing among the affluent is confirmed by the internals of some national polls. The 2008 exit poll showed Obama narrowly carrying voters with incomes over $75,000. Post-debate Pew Research and Battleground polls have shown affluent suburbanite Romney carrying them by statistically significant margins.
In particular, college-educated women seem to have swung toward Romney since October 3. He surely had them in mind in the foreign-policy debate when he kept emphasizing his hopes for peace and pledged no more wars like those in Iraq and Afghanistan.
My other alternative scenario was based on the 1980 election, when vast numbers of voters switched from Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan after their single debate one week before the election. In that debate, the challenger showed he had presidential stature and the incumbent president seemed petulant and small-minded.
We saw an even more vivid contrast between challenger and incumbent in the October 3 debate. In the next two debates, Obama was definitely more focused and aggressive. But Romney held his own, and post–October 16 polling showed him improving his standing even though many debate watchers thought Obama won on points.
What we may be seeing, as we drink from the firehose of multiple poll results pouring in, is a slow-motion 1980.
The Gallup tracking poll, whose procedure for designating likely voters makes it very susceptible to shifts in the balance of enthusiasm, has been showing Romney ahead by five to seven points.
That suggests that since the October 3 debate Republicans have been consistently more motivated to vote than at least temporarily disheartened Democrats.
That’s a factor to keep in mind while assessing polls in old or new target states. Some have samples more Democratic in party identification than in the exit poll in 2008, when Democrats were enthused and Republicans downcast.
The usual caveats are in order. Exogenous events could affect opinion (Libya seems to have hurt Obama). The Obama ground game is formidable. Voters who switched to Romney could switch back again.
And if there is a larger reservoir of potentially changeable voters than in 2004, there was an even larger reservoir back in 1980, when Carter attracted white southerners who now are firmly in Romney’s column.
Mechanical analogies can be misleading. Just because Romney has gained ground since October 3 does not guarantee that he will gain more.
But also keep in mind that Romney gained not just from style but from fundamentals. Most voters dislike Obama’s domestic policies and are dissatisfied with the sluggish economy. And now they seem to believe they have an alternative with presidential stature.
— Michael Barone is senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner
Best example will be California. Romney won't win, but his final total may shock Democrats and pundits - who thought all those wealthy California suburbanites actually liked Obama.
So Romney is ahead in the suburbs, tied with women, double digit lead with independents, and enjoys a significant enthusiasm gap. Yet, the race is essentially tied with the edge to Obama in the critical states? Something just doesn’t pass the smell test. Either the polls are keeping it close for the horse race attention and they will break sometime late next week or one of the sides is going to be very surprised.
Do you suppose the fears of losing their big salaried jobs is now weighing on them more than the fears of losing their inexpensive maids and gardeners?
Exactly. Either the internals are way off or the top numbers are off. We’ll see, right? That’s all we can do is vote!
Watch what happens towards the mid of next week. Polls will all fall in line then and tell the story.
I suspect Romney at about 52% and Obamer at 45 or so in the end. .
Dirty little secret of Agenda 21 is out.
He wants to hike gas prices beyond your ability to commute, let your roads crumble away to nothing, let the whole thing turn back into wilderness and then redistribute your wealth to The Hood.
But will that be able to overcome the "fact" that 90% of the people in the country are Democrats? < /sarc>
I have to tell this story cause it’s so related to this article. Part of my weekly activities includes stopping at a local grocery store once a week for groceries on my way home from work. This store is located just past a mid-to-upper middle class blue/white collar neighborhood and outside the entrance to a very wealthy upper class neighborhood. Back in 2008, during the run up to the election, there was an Obama sign in, I kid you not, every second or third lawn in the middle class neighborhood. Additionally, every single BMW, Mercedes, Prius, Lexus, sports car in the store parking lot from the upper class neighborhood and an Obama sticker on it. I couldn’t believe these people were buying into the hype. Now, I look around, I’ve seen maybe three Obama yard signs, and maybe one or two cars with stickers in the store parking lot. Either 1) they finally waked up to Bummers BS, or 2) are too ashamed to admit they will vote for him again. I suspect both, with more leaning on the first.
Or it could be fear that some of them could be put placed under oath since many in the main stream media have helped to perpetrated this fraud on America.
It was a chance to offload their white guilt. Now that's all done - a "black" man has been President, so they'll say "don't bother us again" at donation time.
The civil rights groups know it, too - their number one weapon has now been used up, and they are royally pissed at Obama for not carving a bigger welfare state and perpetual reparations into stone while he had the chance. :)
I wonder if it's because, thanks to Zero's policies, that there are fewer wealthy suburbanites?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.