Posted on 10/25/2012 7:57:54 PM PDT by barryobi
Have no fear FReepers, we will win Wisconsin and there are a lot good reasons why.
1. Wisconsin is ultimate purple state. In 2000 Gore won the state by less than 5,000 votes out of 2.7 million votes cast. Kerry won in 2004 by only 11,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast. 2008 was unusual because Obama won by 412,000 votes out of 2.9 million votes cast.
2. Fast forward to 2012, and the recall election on June 5th. Scott Walker was the devil incarnate to the public employee unions and the Democrats in this state. They went ALL IN to get him out, spent millions on ads, flew in hundreds of get out the vote union thugs, and they got a non presidential record 2.5 million voters to turn out. What was the result? The Democrat candidate lost to Walker by 171,000 votes, or 53%-46%.
3. With the lower enthusiasm for Obama, I doubt the turnout will be 2.9 million like in 2008, but will be higher than the 2.5 million for the recall. Let's say 2.8 million votes, or 300,000 more than the recall election. If the people who voted for Walker vote Romney this fall, Obama would have to make up the 171,000 deficit in just 300,000 votes. This means Obama would have to get 4 out of 5 votes out of that 300,000 to prevail.
4. The Ryan factor...There are 8 Congressional districts in Wisconsin and Ryan's District 1 is one of the more balanced districts. In 2004 Bush won over Kerry 54/46, but Ryan won his race 65/33. In 2008 Obama WON District 1 51/48, but Ryan won his race 64/35. Ryan is on the ballot for both his Congressional seat and as VP. The 'favorite son' factor is sure to add votes to Romney/Ryan that Romney would not have gotten without Ryan on the ticket. IF Ryan could win his district even 60/40 for Romney it would add almost 40,000 votes to Romney's totals vs what Obama got in 2008. In short, Ryan will take a pretty 50/50 district and make it more red than it normally is.
5. Thompson/Baldwin Senate race. Madison liberal lesbian Baldwin had a huge money advantage in the early part of this Senate race and savaged the popular former Governor. Tommy has found his voice and now has enough cash to compete with Baldwin on the airwaves. Tommy has taken a narrow lead in the race, and Karl Rove has poured his Crossroads USA cash into pointing out Baldwins radical votes. She is getting scared and running over the top anti Tommy ads. Tommy will prevail and hopefully this will help the top of ticket.
6. Reince Priebus ..The recall election gave Reince and the state Republican Party the opportunity to build the MOST sophisticated GOTV operation in the nation. The raw enthusiasm and incredible infrastructure which was built in the recall war this spring and summer was kept intact for the fall campaign. The Democrats thought their superior GOTV operation would win the recall and they got crushed 53-46. This fall will be closer, but I predict 51-49 for Romney/Ryan.
Hope so!
I pray you are correct. I am holding my breath (and passing out litdrops) through 11/06, and fasting and praying on 11/06. After that, it is out of our hands.
“fasting and praying on 11/06. After that, it is out of our hands”.
I’m with you. There is real power in turning to God and pleading for our nation.
You missed the biggest factor - “it’s the economy, stupid”.
Earlier this year, the Democrats killed the Gogebic Taconite mine deal which would have created 700 badly-neede union jobs in northern Wisconsin. This has created a major split between the northern blue collar Democrats and the elitists in Madistan and Milwaukee.
Just hours ago, Oshkosh Corp, a maker of off-road trucks announced the layoff of 450 workers in January. There are rumors of other big layoffs coming, including Kimberley Clark. Marinette Marine stands to be one of the major contractors for the Navy LCS - if the program survives Obamas cuts.
Half of Wisconsin doesn’t know who Reince Priebus is, or care. But 99% of them care about the state economy, and it is very fragile and getting moreso under Obama.
Well they may not know Reince, but the RNC just announced today another $1.3 million in ads for Wisconsin.
Thanks for your analysis. I just spent 8 days fishing on the Brule for steelhead. Everyone I talked to up there were for Romney & Ryan. Admittedly, a small sample, but I believe Wisconsin wont let us down.
Priebus said the RNC decided on Wednesday to invest $1.3 million on ads in Wisconsin, one of eight toss up states on the CNN Electoral Map. The Badger state has 10 electoral votes and could aid Romney’s road to the White House.
“Our resources have allowed us to go beyond funding the ground game and add additional resources to our broadcast advertising,” Priebus said in a statement. “The RNC has now spent in excess of $60 million in advertising in support of the GOP team.”
If Romney does not get Ohio, he has to have Wisconsin.
Baryobi predicts a Romney/Ryan/Thompson win in Wisconsin.
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, tis Wisconsin interest ping list.
Obama won WI 56%-42% in 2008 winning by 415,000 votes. He had a 170,000 vote cushion in Milwaukee County and 130,000 in Dane County (home of Madison.) Let's hope we can eke out a victory. It won't be easy.
The Democrats have a reputation of being against any type of mining, and they will always shot down such industries, this hurting the laborers.
This is what has been happening in NE Minnesota too. It is the same thing that is happeneing in West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Finally these laborers are waking up and realizing that Democrats are hypocrites and are NOT interested in their welfare at all.
Brats and Old Style for everyone!!
Fast/pray on the 3rd, 4rth or 5th. That’s when God will change peoples minds.
One thing that makes me feel hopeful for Wisconsin. Marco Rubio made an appearance in Waukesha — yes, it’s a GOP bastion, but he filled the location to overflowing. There is definitely GOP enthusiasm. The event was at 11:30 am on Thursday, but there were about 1000 people for a couple surrogates.
I just requested a follow. Me: @cafenetamerica
I think Wisconsin will be fine. I have a lot of teacher colleagues who show no enthusiasm for Zero.
Wisconsin has been trending Republican for some time. Toss out 2008 as an aberration and the Democrats carried the state by about half a point in the 2000 and 2004 elections.
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