Posted on 10/27/2012 7:08:31 AM PDT by tatown
Saturday, October 27, 2012
The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.
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In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 51% of the vote to Obama’s 45%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Sam, I’m on the ground here in Ohio and am hosting a volunteer from Texas through the election.Ohio is looking pretty good right now.
Keep in mind that the media cannot report that Ohio has Romney in the lead. If they do then its’ game over a week out. The libs get disappointed and a decision cascade kicks into full gear wherein the Romney numbers get higher and Obama’s get lower. Romney could be up 15 in Ohio and the media will jigger the numbers to give him a one point lead. Ohio is the last brick “standing” in Obama’s firewall. The media will prop it up until 10:00 pm on November 6th. It’s all they have left to keep the race from becoming a foregone conclusion.
Bad news for your projected %’s: even unenthusiastic Dims will go back to the polls on the off chance they can get more stuff.
Oldplayer
As the polls start closing in the Eastern time zones and a Romney wave becomes apparent, it is conceivable that rat voters in the West will decide to skip an evening vote. Even Hawaii went to Reagan in 1984. Numerous House and Senate seats in the West and Mountain time zones may tilt ‘R’ if the early numbers point toward a landslide.
Romney is ahead in all these national polls. He is moved into the lead in Florida and N. Carolina. He might be leading in Colorado. He is in a tie with Virginia and New Hampshire. Even Wisconsin is tightening.
Yet Ohio hasn’t moved an inch?
Something just isn’t adding up. Is Ohio like Nevada that the unions have put all their eggs into those two states?
More or less, the popular vote for President in the US is only of ceremonial significance. It has no legal status.
If the states through their legislatures wanted to - they could legally appoint the electors themselves who in turn would choose the President.
The only federal body the people directly elect is the Congress. Before 1913, they only elected the House Of Representatives and state legislatures chose the state’s Senators.
We have an indirect election of the President.
Here in Michigan...in 2008, in the Detroit area, all you saw were Obama lawn signs, they were everywhere. This year, ive seen just 2. Also, in 2008, outside gas stations in Detroit, the Dems had 2 people registering voters,,,this year, zero..none. The enthusiasm of Obama is simply gone, Michigan will go red.
I am concerned about Ohio. Three polls out from there yesterday and Obama lead all three by an average of three points.
Still, Morris is right. If Romney wins the popular vote by 3%+, then enough other states will flip to him that Ohio won’t even matter.
On Wednesday, Rasmussen reported Ohio as a tie and this swing state tracking poll was Romney +4. Today this swing state tracking poll is Romney +6. This would indicate that Ohio has moved +2 Romney. This swing state poll also shows a constant steady increase in Romney vote while Obama is fluctuating around 45-47, not moving anywhere.
I think 2012 is going to be a year of "broken glass white people" who are willing to crawl over shards of glass just to vote against a surly, incompetent black man who will forever be remembered as "President Dinkins."
Patriotic Republicans come out in impressive numbers for we know it is do or die this election. My projected numbers might be low in some states. Democrats will stay home because Obama is a big disappointment for all.
I live in OH. It is tough this year because the lie that Romney just wants to bankrupt auto industry. It will be tight but Democrat never went above 48% in OH except 2008. Coal and gas industry jobs, religious freedom, Benghazi, immorality, lies will push OH barely over the top, and I will call my home state for Romney with 49.7% / 47% .
Very good news! Thanks for posting this and keeping us updated!
There has been 28 years of slouching towards Gomorrah since the Regan landslide.
Because Ohio tracks National PV. Meaning GOP candidates do at least as equally well as their National PV, and sometimes better (Bush 2000, +3.51%).
Sure hope Dick Morris is right.... he’s often wrong.... Romney has never had a lead in Ohio and someone on Fox news yesterday said that Obama and demoncRATS have been working Ohio for 2012 since 2008.... I just don’t get how Romney has this nice lead in the Battleground states but yet each individual state polls shows him down by one, even (like Wisconsin) or up by 1 or 2....and yet down in Ohio from -1 to -4....doesn’t make sense to me.... can’t wait for this to be over.
Looks like the maximum knowledge about the Libya debacle is going to happen in ohhh A WEEK. Perfect timing. Keep emailing and calling the media to REPORT IT AS FOX NEWS DID.
NOTE: Adrian Gray, one of the best numbers guys out there, has been tracking OH bellweather counties. Rs up .01 in these bellweathers in early voting. If that’s true, then the election is over. We always overperform on election day itself; and this doesn’t even factor in Indies!
Michael Barone although not definitive on Ohio called the end race for Romney.
He’s very through and hopefully is reading through the MSM / pollsters
Clutter to use some realistic modeling to come up with hiss prediction this early.
And the ones that show a worse total in the private Dem internal polling :)
The unions also put a lot of eggs in the Wisconsin basket and couldn’t get rid of Walker. I realize they have some power in Ohio and Nevada, but many of the “rank and file” have suffered under the regime. My brother-in-law in Nevada is a union member and gets several strong-arm calls a week. He, my sister and my nephew hate Obama and will vote accordingly. Because of Obamacare, his company now deducts $1000 from his paycheck a month for healthcare. Before Obamacare his deduction was $120.
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