Ben Lange Leads Bruce Braley in Crucial Iowa House Race

Cedar Rapids Gazette ^ | October 26, 2012 | James Q. Lynch

[PLK]

The much ballyhooed Romney post-debate surge apparently doesn’t stop with the top of the GOP ticket.

Eastern Iowa congressional challenger Ben Lange says he’s seen an uptick in support on the campaign trail, as well as volunteer numbers and financial contributions, since Republican Mitt Romney outperformed President Obama in the first of three presidential debates earlier this month.

“We can just see in the sheer number of volunteers that have showed up from three weeks ago, after that first debate until this point in time,” the Independence attorney told more than 2,000 people waiting to hear from Romney at an airport rally in Cedar Rapids Wednesday. “We are thriving at this right now.”

[PLK]

Awesome. Braley has been in lockstep with every Dem talking point and I believe Iowans are finally fed up.

[fieldmarshaldj]

We came heartbreakingly close to taking out the three Democrat incumbent House members in IA in 2010. Hopefully we can complete the task this year.

[Brent Calvert 03969-030]

I’m excited that due to redistricting, I will now be able to vote for Steve King.

[LS]

This one wasn’t on the radar as a pickup, was it?

[ken5050]

3rd and 4th CDs in Iowa are also very important...In the 3rd, they can finally get rid of Leonard Boswell...and the 4th, it’s conservative Steven King against Christie Vilsak...

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I don’t think race was on the radar. The hot Iowa races I always heard about was the Boswell-Latham and King-Vilsack matchups.

Then again, Braley nearly lost last time, and some other not-focused-on-much contests like the Barr-Chandler rematch have been rising to the top lately.

[fieldmarshaldj]

If it wasn’t, it should’ve been. This is a rematch, and Lange almost beat Braley in 2010 (49.5% to 47.5%, requiring a swing of just about 2,000 votes to change the equation). This race could be very similar to the situation in this district back in the ‘70s. When Democrat Ed Mezvinsky ran for reelection in 1974, he faced Jim Leach and beat him by almost 9%. 2 years later, Leach flipped it and beat Mezvinsky by 4%.

The biggest problem for Lange is that he is being heavily outspent (he has just $60k while Braley has almost $380k).

[Impy]

It was on the radar but not considered a first tier race.

Pundits who haven’t been rating it safe D have had it “likely D”. They have the race in Iowa-02 closer.

Both are rat leaning seats. IA-1 has about the same partisan composition (Osama got 58%) while IA-2 gets a little more Republican going from 60% Obama to 57%) Both have new areas though so these rat incumbents aren’t incumbents for the entire district. Rat Dave Loebsack himself was drawn out of the new 2nd.

I suppose those two are the ones in doubt now rather than Latham V. old man Boswell in a tossup seat and King versus Vilsack’s wife in a GOP seat (certainly not safe but clearly R). We clearly have the edge in both despite some people insisting those are tossups.