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Dem warning: Obama could lose Wisconsin
The Washington Examiner ^ | 10/28/12 | Alan Blinder

Posted on 10/28/2012 2:30:11 PM PDT by markomalley

The Democratic mayor of Denver said Sunday that President Obama could lose the battleground state of Wisconsin if the incumbent’s supporters fail to increase early voter turnout in the Badger State.

“If the election was held today, President Barack Obama would lose the state of Wisconsin because where his base is, we have not turned out the vote early," Mayor Michael Hancock told a Democratic rally. "The suburbs and rural parts of Wisconsin – the Republican base – are voting. President Obama’s base has yet to go vote.

"We've got to get our people to go vote," Hancock said.

Early voting, which began in Wisconsin on Oct. 22, is a central component of Obama’s strategy to win the state. The president won Wisconsin four years ago by 14 percentage points, but recent polls show the race with Republican Mitt Romney tightening, and that is fueling Republican enthusiasm about their chances of seizing the state.

In a later interview with The Washington Examiner, Hancock said he was confident Obama would emerge from Wisconsin victorious.

“There’s a great deal of enthusiasm,” Hancock said. “We expect clearly that President Obama will win the state of Wisconsin.”

But he also said that it’s vital for Obama’s base to make it to the polls in Wisconsin.

“This is a very close race, and the point we’re trying to make is make sure the base shows up, turns out and begins to vote early,” Hancock said. “I saw where the votes were rolling in, and I said we’ve got to make sure that where the president’s base is, they get out and vote.”

Hancock was in Wisconsin to stump for Obama, but the Obama campaign said their surrogates portrayal of where the race stands doesn't match the early voting statistics they've seen.

“We are very grateful that Mayor Hancock came and did what we need to do, which is keep people enthused. He is absolutely right that we have to get our base out,” Joe Zepecki, a spokesman for Obama’s campaign in Wisconsin, said. “But the numbers we are seeing do not back up his assessment that our base is not turning out.”

Zepecki said the campaign remains optimistic nine days from Election Day.

“We are seeing a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of turnout in the places where we need to see it,” Zepecki said. “We’re very confident.”


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2012swingstates; bho2012; wi2012

1 posted on 10/28/2012 2:30:15 PM PDT by markomalley
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It seems Rats are under the misconception that an early cast vote is worth more than a vote cast on election day.


2 posted on 10/28/2012 2:33:02 PM PDT by Reaganez
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To: Reaganez

They do get to count twice. Vote early and often.


3 posted on 10/28/2012 2:36:14 PM PDT by for-q-clinton (If at first you don't succeed keep on sucking until you do succeed)
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To: Reaganez

They’re encouraging early votes so they can devote all their efforts to driving bigger losers to the polls on election day. Also, when those early votes get counted - which could be as soon as the polls open on election day - it won’t look like a landslide against Obama.


4 posted on 10/28/2012 2:36:27 PM PDT by vladimir998
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To: markomalley

Vans from all around the country were running 8am to 7pm non-stop and on weekends during the Walker recall. They still couldn’t get it done.


5 posted on 10/28/2012 2:38:30 PM PDT by Mygirlsmom (Zer0 Fiddled While Tyrone Burned. Impeachment NOW! !!)
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To: markomalley
Early voting and motor-voter are major opportunities for voter fraud on a truly massive scale.That's why the Rat Party pushes them so hard.
6 posted on 10/28/2012 2:42:14 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: vladimir998
it won’t look like a landslide against Obama.

Ya mean like the Walker 8 point drubbing? :-)

My guess this is a hat tip for the nationwide sentiment. I have been saying it will be so big it will take them 20 years to recover, I guess they sense it and don't want to look like even bigger losers.

The bigger the loss, the bigger the chances people look at them as laughing stocks. Just like I heard the Line guys @ GM were making fun of Oboingo after year 1, when they make fun of you they have lost all respect for you. The Democratic Party maybe on the verge of being that bad of a Joke, and the DNC gets what a road it will be to change that going forward..

7 posted on 10/28/2012 2:42:36 PM PDT by taildragger (( Fubarward Obama 2012, think about it :-) ))
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To: markomalley
The assumption is that an early vote is a party line vote...and they can count party designation.

So either Dems are sand bagging or going to vote heavy for Romney.

8 posted on 10/28/2012 2:43:07 PM PDT by Sacajaweau (r)
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To: Reaganez

Early votes end up in boxes that are “found” later. After they figure out how many votes they need.


9 posted on 10/28/2012 2:43:48 PM PDT by Terry Mross (To former friends and relatives. Don't ever contact me if you still support obama.)
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To: markomalley
Hell yes he’s going to lose! And all this RAT talk about early voting being so helpful to them just proves they’re commiting voter fraud.
10 posted on 10/28/2012 2:45:24 PM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: Reaganez
It's about turnout ~ the idea is the people who vote early ~ or, vote absentee early, which is a slightly different concept ~ are people who usually wouldn't bother voting.

The Democrats had 10 million new voters in 2008, and they won by 10 million votes. Their perception is their new voters voted early.

The Democrat belief is that Republicans have fewer new voters, and they tend to vote on election day with only a handful of absentee ballots earlier.

When the Democrats see their early voters NOT VOTING and the Republicans having a whole huge bunch of presumably new voters voting early, they assume ~ correctly ~ they are losing.

So, how did this come about ~ well, rather than deal with a Republican governor regarding government employee pensions democrats ran away ~ literally ~ and hid out in Illinois. More than likely this sent a message to their new voters that Democrat politics in Wisconsin extends no further than government employee benefits and retirement packages.

Since so many of the new voters were youth, and have spent the next 4 years unemployed, it's not all that likely they are real excited about voting for Democrats.

11 posted on 10/28/2012 2:45:50 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: markomalley
It' funny how some in the MSM still think that Romney has a harder path to 270 than Obama. I'm still hearing from some that Romney has to "run the table" on the tossup states if he loses Ohio.

The truth is, Obama's going to need to "run the table".

The way I see it, Romney's going to win FL,NC,VA,CO and NH. Of the five remaining large tossup states - Pennsylvania, Ohio, Winsonsin, Michigan and Minnesota. Romney will just need one of these five to win - Obama will need all five to win - but I think he'll only get two or three at most.

And even if Romney loses all five, he can still win by taking Nevada, Iowa, plus one electoral vote from Maine (without the one from Maine he still get's 269 and installed by the House).

With polls increasingly showing Romney nailing down states like FL and NC (and with the others I named likely to trend that way too) - I just don't see how Obama can possibly win.

Obama would truly need an electoral miracle - he's the one who would have to "run the table" - taking all five of the upper mid-west tossup states, and taking either Iowa or Nevada as well!
12 posted on 10/28/2012 2:46:10 PM PDT by zencycler
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To: Reaganez
I wondered too what all the fuss about early voting is about, but the deal is, a vote cast now is not a vote who will just bag it and stay home in November when it is dark and cold and there is a long line. Remember, these are dispirited losers who don't really believe all the obama crap any more anyway.
13 posted on 10/28/2012 2:47:37 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: taildragger
I have been saying it will be so big it will take them 20 years to recover

I tend to advise against such sweeping statements...

14 posted on 10/28/2012 2:47:52 PM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: markomalley

Obama could potentially lose ALL 57 states!


15 posted on 10/28/2012 2:56:09 PM PDT by sirchtruth (Freedom is not free.)
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To: vladimir998

They can do like they did in 2000—give homeless people free cigarettes in return for voting. They will presumably get an additonal pack of cigarettes each additional time they vote.


16 posted on 10/28/2012 2:58:10 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: markomalley

It’s interesting that they think every Democrats will still vote for Obama.


17 posted on 10/28/2012 2:58:20 PM PDT by skr (May God confound the enemy)
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To: taildragger

Personally, I think the Democrats are going to look to get Obama out of sight and out of mind as quickly as possible. By the time 2014 rolls around, they’ll have themselves convinced that he was nothing but a jug-eared half-black quasi-Muslim who may not have been eligible to serve in the White House anyway ... as if he will no longer have had any party affiliation at all.


18 posted on 10/28/2012 2:58:40 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: Future Snake Eater
What will Carville do this year when Obama loses?


19 posted on 10/28/2012 3:00:51 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: Reaganez

It seems Rats are under the misconception that an early cast vote is worth more than a vote cast on election day.

It seems to be the perfect time to commit voter fraud while no one is looking


20 posted on 10/28/2012 3:04:29 PM PDT by ronnie raygun (bb)
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To: markomalley

21 posted on 10/28/2012 3:09:28 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Reaganez

Early voting is easier to fraud up.


22 posted on 10/28/2012 3:20:36 PM PDT by Thebaddog (Remember, Obama said he's only 60% done with his agenda.)
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To: Reaganez

The more people they can get to vote early, the less people they have to round up on election day. So they can stretch their resources further.

But Romney is doing this as well, so no advantage to Dems on this.


23 posted on 10/28/2012 3:30:03 PM PDT by randita
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To: markomalley

amazing if true.

could be the desperate Dems trying to GOTV


24 posted on 10/28/2012 3:35:03 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: markomalley

Say it ain’t so, Joe.


25 posted on 10/28/2012 3:39:09 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: CPT Clay

They haven’t voted early in Wisconsin because they are still on the buses coming back from voting early in Ohio.


26 posted on 10/28/2012 3:47:13 PM PDT by Glenmore
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To: markomalley

Uh Mikey, why don’t you focus your efforts on your home state which had the exact date of early voting? Or better yet, get Denver’s house in order before venturing into someone else’s state
Oh that’s right, because CO is going Romney regardless of attempts of fraud


27 posted on 10/28/2012 4:02:17 PM PDT by ebersole
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To: markomalley
we have not turned out the vote early

What on earth does early voting have to do with it?
28 posted on 10/28/2012 4:14:27 PM PDT by andyk (I have sworn...eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man.)
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To: markomalley

Will lose Wisconsin.... I am also expecting something totally unexpected...something like victory in PA or MI which will then negate the significance of the Ohio vote.


29 posted on 10/28/2012 4:20:00 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: markomalley

“The Democratic mayor of Denver said Sunday that President Obama could lose the battleground state of Wisconsin if the incumbent’s supporters fail to increase early voter turnout in the Badger State”

Great news!

no sense for u rats to vote now. waste of your time. the state is a battleground and you might get hurt or something.

just smoke your dope and go to bed.

blessings, bobo


30 posted on 10/28/2012 4:22:58 PM PDT by bobo1
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To: Verginius Rufus

You homeless folks can cough to death once you vote..

The Daley machine in Chicago held a Irish Stew Dinner in skid Row in Chicago on election day in the late 50’s..

They were swamped and it appeared to have worked too well.. They ran out of food in mid afternoon, and they had hardly any meat in it when they resupplied in the early evening..

You could see the emotions start to become ominous, as the tempers grew.. When the tables started to get flipped, the big Irish Cops started to beat the bums with billy clubs..

When it was cleared up and hundreds were ushered away in paddy wagons it was already known that they would never do it again.. HA!


31 posted on 10/28/2012 4:41:54 PM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: 3Fingas

Let’s root for the Giants to sweep the Tigers in the World Series tonight.
Many Zero voters in Michigan will be too bummed to vote. Every little bit of irrationality helps in close elections...


32 posted on 10/28/2012 5:19:33 PM PDT by rfp1234
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To: rfp1234

I was kind of happy for Detroit. They would have something to cheer about. Not much of that going on today in that wonderful failed experiment of a city. But, it looks like they may come out of the World Series more depressed than ever.


33 posted on 10/28/2012 5:27:42 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: 3Fingas
Not just the Tigers; the Red Wings will probably have the whole season cancelled by the NHL lockout (+ the big-revenue outdoor Winter Classic at the UM football stadium.)

I like both teams, but I'm just disappointed that a great owner / pizza businessman like Mike Ilitch is a Zerobama supporter.

34 posted on 10/28/2012 5:44:01 PM PDT by rfp1234
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To: muawiyah
Astute and succinct at the same time.

Consider yourself *highly* recommended.

Cheers!

35 posted on 10/28/2012 5:45:19 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Reaganez

They are becoming unhinged!

How sweet it is.


36 posted on 10/28/2012 5:48:36 PM PDT by Gumdrop
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To: markomalley

Considering that Ryan is from Wisconsin, the state should be a near-lock for Romney.


37 posted on 10/28/2012 5:49:25 PM PDT by Teacher317 ('Tis time to fear when tyrants seem to kiss.)
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To: 3Fingas

There is no way Romney wins either Ohio, PA or MI and then loses Wisconsin.

Of those four states, Romney has his best shot here, hitching onto the Scott Walker machine.


38 posted on 10/28/2012 5:59:40 PM PDT by SteveAustin
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To: zencycler
I've been enjoying RealClearPolitics.com and their polling graphics.

They show the Electoral College as 201-191 (if you include the leaning plus likely plus locks) with 146 undecided.

Incumbents are generally told to worry if they're polling under 50% before the election, because they drop 1-3% after the votes are counted, and rarely get the majority of the undecideds. Obama has not been over 50% in quite a long time.

Obama would have to get at least 69 of the remaining 146 undecided states to win the Electoral College. I don't see that happening. The Left is just having pipe dreams about winning one split that way to "make up for" 2000. They're infantile, nothing more.

The 146 Electoral College votes that are "undecided":
Florida (29)
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (18)
Michigan (16)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (6)
Iowa (6)
New Hampshire (4)

Romney needs 79 of those. Obama needs 69. Hence, Obama has an "easier" road. No one state means that the rival needs to "run the table"... but FL + PA + OH puts Obama within 2 votes. Just sayin'.

Personally, I see MI as Obama's (too much fraud in Detroit), along with CO, NV (Reid's machine), and NH. I also see WI as Romney's (Ryan is from WI), along with NC and IA. That makes it 236-222 Obama, with 4 states left to call - OH, PA, FL, and VA (80 total). If I'm right, Obama needs FL and one other... or all 3 (OH, PA, and VA) without FL.

Since it's close, watch for the MSM to NOT call ANY states until after ALL polls are closed (because they are soooo ethical)... unlike what they did in 2008, when Obama needed the assist.

39 posted on 10/28/2012 6:02:18 PM PDT by Teacher317 ('Tis time to fear when tyrants seem to kiss.)
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To: SteveAustin

Agreed. Supposedly the Republican ground game in your state is a well-oiled machine due to the Walker recall efforts.


40 posted on 10/28/2012 6:03:34 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: 3Fingas

The GOP ground game in Wisconsin is well oiled. We all know people on our lists who we need to contact to vote. And talk radio is a huge GOTV effort for us here. Plus Paul Ryan’s congressional district leans Dem, and all Paul has to do is convert a few of those people.

Final note, Bush lost here in 2000 by only 5,000 votes. And lost in 2004 by only 12,000 votes. Both out of approx 2.5 million cast.

Not saying Wisconsin is safe for Romney. Not at all. But if Romney loses Wisconsin, it means the Obama wave showed up again. And if they show up again, we’re also losing OH, MI and PA.


41 posted on 10/28/2012 6:16:17 PM PDT by SteveAustin
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To: skr
For the most part 95%+ of all voters have voted for the same party in the past, and will do so in the foreseeable future.

Most of your switch hitters are actually members of a faction based on occupation, wealth, geography, race, religion, etc. that's transitioning from one party to another to get a better deal.

There are so few independents they aren't worth knowing about ~

For several decades Democrats have been working on a theory that the best way to increase their turnout is to get NEW VOTERS from previously unregistered adults ~ usually youth, but also socially and/or religiously conservative people.

Four years ago they made great strides in that regard and then followed that up with a major get out the vote campaign that brought out 10 million of their first time registered voters to vote for Obama. During that same period the Republican party forgot about turnout again and ended up with fewer voters in 2008 than they'd gotten in 2004.

50 years ago one of the popular ideas was that there was a broad middle which had a lot of moderate or independent or undecided voters who could be persuaded to vote for Democrats, or Republicans with sound reasons and attractive political platforms or inducements.

Barry Goldwater saw through that problem and recognized there are only two major coalition parties, and that's all there's ever been ~ and there's no 'normal curve' showing a continuum of American political thought.

LBJ also understood the theory, agreed with it, and used that theory to beat Barry in one of histories major blowouts!

Richard NIxon saw the idea in use and adopted and won twice, as did Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush!

For some reason we continue to have Republicans who persist in the erroneous belief about the 'normal curve'. They are almost doomed to lose up against a campaign with a strong component of increasing Democrat turnout.

42 posted on 10/28/2012 6:19:16 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: markomalley

Romney doesn’t need OH if he gets WI, CO and then any one of NH, IA or NV. He should definitely keep leveraging Walker and Ryan’s influence and get WI in the bag.


43 posted on 10/28/2012 6:20:47 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: markomalley
Win one for the Gipper h/t Legalinsurrection
44 posted on 10/28/2012 6:22:38 PM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto.)
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